Abstract
Specifying seasons is one of the most significant and arduous parts of climatology studies. In the present study, seasons are defined to apparent temperature index. For determining changes in the length, start, and end dates of the season in Iran in line with global climate change, in this research we used daily data of apparent temperature for 32 synoptic stations with locations and topography over a 60-year period (1959–2018). Temperature indices used for determining the start of seasons are thresholds of apparent temperatures of 0 and 20 degrees, with a 10-day continuation and without reverting to the initial conditions during this period for winter and summer, respectively. In the same vein, transitional seasons were specified and changes were analyzed using linear regression. The findings revealed that, in various regions, the start of spring and summer occur earlier while the start of fall and winter are delayed. The biggest statistically significant changes are observed at the start of the spring and fall seasons, as the increase is 2.25 days for summer and 1.5 days for winter per decade. Therefore, the duration of cold seasons have decreased and the duration of warm seasons have increased in climatic regions. These changes are statistically significant in foothill and high-altitude regions; the hot and dry climatic range is expanding with the increase and decrease of the summer and winter length, respectively. However, considering the inhomogeneity of altitude and geographical phenomena in the Iranian plateau and its flat northern and southern regions, these changes are not uniform or equivalent. We can say that, overall, climate change, as a direct factor influencing season change and climatic belts, plays a more influential role in comparison with local factors.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
All data used in the study are not freely available online. However, the data that support the findings of this study are available on request from the corresponding author.
The manuscript has not been submitted to more than one journal for simultaneous consideration. The manuscript has not been published previously (partly or in full) unless the new work concerns an expansion of previous work. Our study is not split up into several parts to increase the number of submissions and submitted to various journals or to one journal over time. No data has been fabricated or manipulated.
References
Abrami G (1972) Optimum mean temperature for a plant growth calculated by a new method summation. Ecology 5:893–900. https://doi.org/10.2307/1934305
Afshar Vaghefi S, Keykhai M, Jahanbakhshi F, Sheikholeslami J, Ahmadi A, Yang H, Abbas Pour KC (2019) The future of extreme climate in Iran. Scientific Reports 9:1464. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-018-38071-8
Aitken SN, Yeaman S, Holliday JA, Wang T, Curtis-McLane S (2008) Adaptation, migration or extirpation: climate change outcomes for tree populations. Evol Appl 1:95–111. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1752-4571.2007.00013.x
Allan RP, Arias PA, Berger S, Canadell JG, Cassou C, Chen D, Cherchi A, Connors SL, Coppola E, Cruz FA, Diongue-Niang A, Doblas-Reyes FJ, Douville H, Driouech F, Edwards TL, Engelbrecht F, Eyring V, Fischer E, Flato GM, Forster P, Fox-Kemper B, Fuglestvedt JS, Fyfe JC, Gillett NP, Gomis MI, Gulev SK, Gutiérrez JM, Hamdi R, Harold J, Hauser M, Hawkins E, Hewitt HT, Johansen TG, Jones C, Jones RG, Kaufman DS, Klimont Z, Kopp RE, Koven C, Krinner G, Lee J-Y, Lorenzoni I, Marotzke J, Masson-Delmotte V, Maycock TK, Meinshausen M, Monteiro PMS, Morelli A, Naik V, Notz D, Otto F, Palmer MD, Pinto I, Pirani A, Plattner G-K, Raghavan K, Ranasinghe R, Rogelj J, Rojas M, Ruane AC, Sallée J-B, Samset BH, Seneviratne SI, Sillmann J, Sörensson AA, Stephenson TS, Storelvmo T, Szopa S, Thorne PW, Trewin B, Vautard R, Vera C, Yassaa N, Zaehle S, Zhai P, Zhang X, and Zickfeld K (2021) Summary for policymakers. In Climate Change 2021: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Sixth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Masson-Delmotte V, Zhai P, Pirani A, Connors SL, Péan C, Berger S, Caud N, Chen Y, Goldfarb L, Gomis MI, Huang M, Leitzell K, Lonnoy E, Matthews JBR, Maycock TK, Waterfield T, Yelekçi O, Yu R, and Zhou B (Eds.). Cambridge University Press, pp 3–32. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781009157896.001.
Alijani B (1995) Climate of Iran. Piame Noor University, Tehran, Iran
Alizadeh-choobari O, Njafi MS (2018) Extreme weather events in Iran under a changing climate. Clim Dyn 50:249–260. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3602-4
Allen MJ, Sheridan SC (2016) Evaluating changes in season length, start, and end dates across the United States (1948–2012). Int J Climatol 36:1268–1277. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4422
Alpert P, Osetinsky I, Ziv B, Shafir H (2004) A new seasons the definition based on classified daily synoptic systems: an example for the eastern Mediterranean. Int J climatol 24:1013–1021. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1037
Amiri MJ, Eslamian SS (2010) Investigation of climate change in Iran. Journal of Environmental Science and Technology 3:208–216. https://doi.org/10.3923/jest.2010.208.216
Ault TR, Macalady AK, Pederson GT, Betancourt JL, Schwartz, (2011) North hemisphere modes of variability and the timing of spring in western North America. Journal of climate 24:4003–4014. https://doi.org/10.1175/2011JCLI4069.1
Bradshaw WE, Holzapfel CM (2008) Genetic response to rapid climate change: it’s seasonal timing that matters. Mol Ecol 17:157–166. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-294X.2007.03509.x
Carey C (2009) The impact of climate change on the annual cycles of birds. Phil Trans R Soc Bio Sci 364:3321–3330. https://doi.org/10.1098/rstb.2009.0182
Cayan DR, Kammerdiener SA, Dettinger MD, Caprio JM, Peterson DH (2001) Changes in the start of spring in the western United States. Bulletin of the American meteorological society 82:399–416. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477(2001)082%3c0399:CITOOS%3e2.3.CO;2
Cheng S, Kalkstein LS (1997) Determination of climatological seasons for the east coast of the U.S. using and air mass-based classification. Clim Res 8:107–116. https://doi.org/10.3354/cr008107
Cook KH, Vizy EK (2012) Impact of climate change on mid-twenty-first century growing seasons in Africa. Clim Dyn 39:2937–2955. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1324-1
Czernecki B, Mietus M (2017) The thermal seasons variability in Poland, 1951–2010. Theor Appl Climatol 127:481–493. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1647-z
D odorico P, Yoo JC, Jaeger S, (2002) Changing seasons: an effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation? J of climate 15:435–445. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3c0435:CSAEOT%3e2.0.CO;2
Dai A (2011) Drought under global warming: a review. Wires climate change 2:45–65. https://doi.org/10.1002/wcc.81
Dong W, Jiang Y, Yang S (2010) Response of the starting dates and the lengths of seasons in mainland China to global warming. Climate change 99:81–91. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-009-9669-0
Dupont FM, Altenbach SB (2003) Molecular and biochemical impacts of environmental factors on wheat grain development and protein synthesis. Journal of Cereal Science 2:133–146. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0733-5210(03)00030-4
Emadodin I, Reinsch T, Taube F (2019) Drought and desertification in Iran. Hydrology 6:66. https://doi.org/10.3390/hydrology6030066
Engdaw MM, Ballinger AP, Hegerl GC, Steiner AK (2021) Change in temperature and heat waves over Africa using observational and reanalysis data sets. Int J Climatol 42:1165–1180. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.7295
Gaitan E, Monjo R, Portoles J, Pino-Otin MR (2020) Impact of climate change on drought in Aragon (NE Spain). Science of the total environment 740:140094. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140094
Gomez-Ruiz E, Lacher TE Jr (2019) Climate change, range shifts, and the disruption of a pollinator-plant complex. Scientific reports 9:14048. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-019-50059-6
Haile GG, Tang Q, Hossaini-Moghari SM, Liu X, Gebremical TG, Leng G, Kebede A, Xu X, Yun X (2020) Projected impacts of climate change on drought patterns over East Africa. Earth’s Future 7, e2020EF001502. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020EF001502
Hekmatzadeh AK, Kaboli S, Torabi Haghighi A (2020) New indices for assessing changes in seasons and timing characteristics of air temperature. Theor Appl Climatol 140: 1247-1261.https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03156-w
Hu Y, Fu Q (2007) Observed poleward expansion of the Hadley circulation since 1979. Atmospheric chemistry and physics 7:5229–5236. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-7-5229-2007
Jaagus J, Ahas R (2000) Space-time variations of climatic seasons and their correlation with the phenological development of nature in Estonia. Climate Res 15:207–219
Jaagus J, Truu J, Ahas R, Aasa A (2003) Spatial and temporal variability of climatic seasons on the east European plain in relation to large-scale atmospheric circulation. Climate Res 23:111–129
Jenner CF (1991) Effects of exposure of wheat ears to high temperature on dry matter accumulation and carbohydrate metabolism in the grain of two cultivars. II. Carry-over effects. Australian J of Plant Physiology 2:179–190. https://doi.org/10.1071/PP9910179
Jiang FQ, Hu RJ, Zhang TW (2011) Variations and trends of start, cessation and length of climatic growing season over Xingjian, NW China. Theor Appl Climatol 106:449–458. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0445-5
Joy K (2017) Why a 65-degree day feels cold in fall but warm in spring. University of Michigan, Michigan medicine
Kang S, Eltahir EAB (2018) North China plain threatened by deadly heatwaves due to climate change and irrigation. Nature Communications 9:2894. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-018-05252-y
Kirbyshire A, Bigg GR (2010) Is the start of the English summer advancing? Climatic change 100:419–431. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-010-9843-4
Kitowski M, Marosz M, Mietus, M (2019) Thermal seasons start and length in Poland–a multiannual perspective on 1971–2010. Quarterly j of the Hungarian meteorological service 129: 89-106. http://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.28974/idojaras.2019.1.6
Lamb HH (1950) Types and spells of weather around the year in the British Isles: annual trends, seasonal structure of the year, singularities. Quarterly journal of the royal meteorological society 76:393–438. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.49707633005
Lehikoinen E, Sparks TH, Zalakevicius M (2004) Arrival and departure dates. Advances in ecological research 35:1–31. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0065-2504(04)35001-4
Linderholm HW (2006) Growing season changes in the last century. Agriculture and forest meteorology 137:1–14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.agrformet.2006.03.006
Loo YY, Billa L, Singh A (2015) Effect of climate change on seasonal monsoon in Asia and its impact on the variability of monsoon rainfall in Southeast Asia. Geoscience frontiers 6:817–823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gsf.2014.02.009
Ma B, Zhang B, Jia L (2020) Spatial-temporal variation in China’s climatic seasons from 1951 to 2017. J of geographical sciences 30:1387–1400. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-020-1788-6
Majewski G, Przewozniczuk W (2014) Thermal seasons in Warsaw during the period 1961–2013. Miscellanea geographica – regional studies on development 18: 41-46. https://doi.org/10.2478/mgrsd-2014-0025
Mansoori daneshvar MR, Ebrahimi M, Nejadsolyman H, (2019) An overview of climate change in Iran: facts and statistics. Environ Systems Res 8:7. https://doi.org/10.1186/s40068-019-0135-3
Markus M, Cai X, Sriver R (2019) Extreme floods and droughts under future climate scenarios. Water 11:1720. https://doi.org/10.3390/books978-3-03921-899-8
Marx W, Haunschild R, Bornmann L (2021) Heat waves: a hot topic in climate change research. Theor Appl climatol 146:781–800. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03758-y
Mousavi A, Ardalan A, Takian AH, Ostadtaghizadeh A, Naddafi K, Massah bavani A, (2020) Climate change and health in Iran: a narrative review. J of Environ Health Sci Eng 18(1):367–378. https://doi.org/10.1007/s40201-020-00462-3
Palus M, Novotna D, Tichavsky P (2005) Shifts of seasons at the European mid-latitudes: natural fluctuations correlated with the north Atlantic oscillation, geophysical research letters 32: 1-5. https://doi.org/10.1029/2005GL022838
Pena-ortiz C, Barriopedro D, Garcia-herrera R (2015) Multidecadal variability of the summer length in Europe. J of climate 28:5375–5388. https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-14-00429.1
Penuelas J, Filella L (2001) Responses to a warming world. Science 294:793–795
Qian CH, Fu C, Wu Z, Yan Z (2011) The role of changes in the annual cycle in earlier start of climate spring in northern China. Adv atmospheric sciences 28:284–296. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00376-010-9221-1
Rajaud A, de Noblet-Ducoudre N (2017) Tropical semi-arid regions expanding over temperate latitudes under climate change. Clim change 144:703–719. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2052-7
Raziei T (2017) Köppen-Geiger climate classification of Iran and investigation of its changes during 20th century. J Earth and Space Physics 43: 419-439. https://doi.org/10.22059/jesphys.2017.58916
Ruosteenoja K, Markkanen T, Raisanen J (2020) Thermal season in northern Europe in projected future climate. Inte J Climatol 40:4444–4462. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.6466
Schaefer k, Denning AS, Leonard O, (2005) The winter arctic oscillation, the timing of spring, and carbon fluxes in the Northern Hemisphere. Global biogeochemical cycles 19:1–17. https://doi.org/10.1029/2004GB002336
Schmidt A, Law BE, Hanson C, Klemm O (2012) Distinct global patterns of strong positive and negative shifts of seasons over the last 6 decades. Atmospheric and climate sciences 2:76–88
Schwartz MD, Ault TR, Betancourt, (2013) Spring start variations and trends in the continental United States: past and regional assessment using temperature- based indices. Inte J Climatol 33:2917–2922. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3625
Song Y, Linderholm AW, Chen D, Walther A (2010) Trends of the thermal growing season in China, 1951–2007. Inte J Climatol 30:33–43. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1868
Sparks TH, Menzel A (2002) Observed changes in seasons: an overview. Inte J Climatol 22:1715–1725. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.821
Steadman RG (1994) Norms of apparent temperature in Australia. Aust Meteorol Mag 43:1–16
Tabari H (2020) Climate change impact on flood and extreme precipitation increases with water availability. Sci Rep 10:13768. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-70816-2
Thackeray S, Henrys P, Hemming D, Huntingford C, Bell J, Leech D, Wanless S (2014) Shifting seasons, climate change and ecosystem consequences. EGU 16:3686
Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Erasmus BFN, de siqueira MF, Grainger A, Hannah L, Hughes L, Huntley B, Van jaarsveld AS, Midgley GF, Miles L, Ortega-huerta MA, Peterson AT, Phillips OL, Williams SE, (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427:145–148. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature02121
Thomson DJ (2009) Climate change: shift in season. Nature 457:391–392. https://doi.org/10.1038/457391a
Trenberth KE (1983) What are the seasons? Bulletin of the American society, 64: 1276-1282. https://www.jstor.org/stable/26223401
Wang J, Guan Y, Wu L, Guan X, Cai W, Huang J, Dong W, Zhang B (2021) Changing lengths of the four seasons by global warming. Geophysical research letters 48, e2020GL091753. https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL091753
Zacharias S, Koppe C, Mucke HG (2015) Climate change effects on heat waves and future heat wave-associated IHD mortality in Germany. Climate 3:100–117. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3010100
Acknowledgements
The authors thank the National Iran Meteorological Organization (irimo.ir) for providing data.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
RD (as the corresponding author) pursued the idea, analyzed all datasets and results, and prepared the draft. BA (second author) studied and revised the manuscript.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Consent to participate
We used only meteorological data for analyzing.
Consent for publication
RD accepts the responsibility of releasing this paper and the materials on behalf of all co-authors.
Conflict of interest
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Doostan, R., Alijani, B. Evaluating the onset, end, and length of seasons in selected stations in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 151, 13–28 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04259-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04259-2