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Wheat yield responses to rising temperature: insights from northern plains of India

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Abstract 

Climate change and consequent variations in temperature pose a significant challenge for sustaining wheat production systems globally. This study analyzed the potential impact of rising temperature on wheat yield in the north Indian plains, India’s central wheat-growing region, using panel data from 1981 to 2009. This study deviates from most previous studies by including non-climatic factors in estimating the impact of climate change. To determine the differential impact of increased temperature at various growth stages, two temperature measures were used to fit the function, Growing Season Temperature (GST), and Terminal Stage Temperature (TST). Analysis revealed that there was a significant rise in both GST and TST during the study period. The magnitude of the annual increment in TST was twice that of GST. Wheat yield growth in the region was driven primarily by increased input resources such as fertilizer application and technological development like improved varieties and management practices. Most importantly, the study found that the extent of yield reduction was more significant for an increase in temperature at terminal crop growth stages. The estimated yield reduction due to unit increase in TST was 2.26%, and GST was 2.03%.

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Data availability

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Code availability

The analysis for this study was carried out using licensed STATA/SE 15 software. We have undertaken only menu-driven procedures and not used any custom codes.

Notes

  1. In India, cropping is done in three seasons, namely, Kharif (monsoon season crop), Rabi (winter season crop), and Zaid (summer season crop). Rabi cropping season typically spans from mid-October to mid-April in India.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Agricultural Economics, ICAR-Indian Agricultural Research Institute, New Delhi, 110012, India

    Philip Kuriachen, Asha Devi & Girish K. Jha

  2. Kerala Agricultural University, Regional Agricultural Research Station Kumarakom, Kottayam, Kerala, 686563, India

    Anu Susan Sam

  3. ICAR-Indian Institute of Soil and Water Conservation, Research Centre, Koraput, Odisha, India

    Suresh Kumar

  4. Division of Germplasm Evaluation, ICAR-NBPGR, New Delhi, 110012, India

    Jyoti Kumari

  5. ICAR-Central Institute of Fisheries Technology, Cochin, Kerala, 682029, India

    A. Suresh

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All authors contributed significantly to conducting this study and preparing this manuscript as follows: study conception: Dr. Girish K. Jha; design: Dr. Girish K. Jha, Mr. Philip Kuriachen, Dr Asha Devi, S.S; data collection and analysis: Mr. Philip Kuriachen, Dr. Asha Devi, S.S; original draft preparation: Mr Philip Kuriachen, Dr. Asha Devi, S.S; review and editing: Dr. Anu Susan Sam, Dr. Suresh Kumar, Dr. Jyothi Kumari, Dr. A. Suresh; supervision: Dr. Girish K. Jha. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Appendix

Appendix

Table 6

Table 7

Table 8

Table 9

Table 10

Table 6 Ljung-Box statistic for auto-correlation
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Table 7 Box-Pierce statistic for auto-correlation
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Table 8 Im-Pesaran-Shin panel unit root test for stationarity
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Table 9 Residual diagnostics
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Table 10 State-wise descriptive statistics
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Kuriachen, P., Devi, A., Sam, A.S. et al. Wheat yield responses to rising temperature: insights from northern plains of India. Theor Appl Climatol 150, 1157–1172 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04218-x

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