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Identifying the suitable habitats for Anatolian boxwood (Buxus sempervirens L.) for the future regarding the climate change

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Abstract

Distribution of tree species is a function of climatic (such as temperature and precipitation) and topographic (such as altitude, slope, and exposure) parameters. It is thought that any change in climatic parameters would be one of the most effective factors to influence the distribution of species. The adaptation of populations would depend on the phenotypic variation, strength of selection, interspecies competition, and biotic interactions. Moreover, many ecologic and anthropogenic processes that are related with each other would affect the distance of distribution. Hence, the detailed and reliable information about the geographical distribution of species under changing climate conditions is of significant importance for various ecologic and protection practices. For this reason, the present study focused on the estimation and analysis of the potential distribution of Anatolian boxwood in different scenarios (SSPS245 and SSPS585) and the estimation and analysis of environmental factors influencing this distribution. Using the current and future (2040-2060-2080-2100) climate scenarios, the habitats that are suitable for the distribution of Anatolian boxwood in Turkey were modeled using the maximum entropy model and then mapped using ArcGIS software. In determining the potential distribution areas, 21 parameters (19 bioclimatic and 2 topographic variables) were used in 21 field-based formation points. The results showed that the most important variables affecting the distribution of species were annual mean temperature (Bio1), minimum temperature of the coldest month (Bio6), mean temperature of the coldest quartile (Bio11), precipitation of the driest month (Bio14), precipitation of the driest quartile (Bi017), and precipitation of the warmest quartile (Bio18). According to two future climate change scenarios, the estimation models showed that there might be decreases up to 6% in Anatolian Boxwood population in years 2040–2060 and, in year 2100; the potential area of distribution will shift to north and higher altitudes in comparison to the current ones and increase by 1–4%. The human help needed for maintaining the existence of new species in the suitable distribution areas suggests the necessity of reviewing and re-designing the current forestry plans and silvicultural practices within the context of climate change.

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Data availability

All data are given in manuscript. Data came from the Turkish State of Meteorological Service, https://www.mgm.gov.tr/eng/forecast-cities.aspx. The authors thank the supported by the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Forest Engineering and the General Directorate of Meteorology for their prompt responses to our requests.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the support by the Republic of Turkey Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, General Directorate of Forest Engineering, and the General Directorate of Meteorology for their prompt responses to our requests.

We thank YÖK for the 100/2000 PhD Scholarship Project and TÜBİTAK for their support.

Funding

Tubitak YOK 100/2000 Scholarship.

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Author notes

  1. Ilknur Zeren Cetin

    Present address: Department of Park and Garden Plants, Program of Landscape and Ornamental Plants Cultivation, Samsun Vocational School, Ondokuz Mayis University, Samsun, Turkey

  2. Ugur Canturk

    Present address: YOK100/2000 Scholarship, Program of Climate Change, Institute of Graduate School, Department of Forest Engineering, Duzce University, Duzce, Turkey

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, Bartin University, Bartin, Turkey

    Tugrul Varol & Halil Baris Ozel

  2. Department of Forest Engineering, Faculty of Forestry, Duzce University, Duzce, Turkey

    Ugur Canturk

  3. Department of City and Regional Planning, Faculty of Architecture, Ondokuz Mayis University, Samsun, Turkey

    Mehmet Cetin

  4. Department of Environmental Engineering, Faculty of Engineering and Architecture, Kastamonu University, Kuzeykent Campus, 37150, Kastamonu, Turkey

    Hakan Sevik

  5. YOK 100/2000 Scholarship, Program of Sustainable Forestry, Institute of Graduate School, Department of Forest Engineering, Bartin University, Bartin, Turkey

    Ilknur Zeren Cetin

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Contributions

Halil, Tugrul, Hakan, Ugur, and Ilknur designed the study and performed the experiments; and Tugrul, Ugur, Ilknur, and Mehmet performed the experiments, analyzed the data, and wrote the manuscript

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Correspondence to Ilknur Zeren Cetin.

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Varol, T., Canturk, U., Cetin, M. et al. Identifying the suitable habitats for Anatolian boxwood (Buxus sempervirens L.) for the future regarding the climate change. Theor Appl Climatol 150, 637–647 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-022-04179-1

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