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A new framework to substantiate the prevalence of drought intensities

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Abstract

Drought is a natural disaster originating from a shortage of precipitation over an extended period, causing water deficiency for various groups, events, and environmental sectors. The Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) is the most frequently used index to estimate drought. However, it cannot expeditiously relate to precipitation deficit, drought probability, and temporal evolution of the droughts. Therefore, a Copula-based Modified Continuous Drought Probability Monitoring System (MCDPMS) is proposed to instantaneously monitor precipitation deficit, drought probability, and temporal advancement of the drought. In MCDPMS, the steady-state probabilities are used to obtain information regarding the precipitation advances. Further, the MCDPMS considers the most popular Meta-Elliptical copulas (Gaussian and t Student) and Archimedean copulas (Clayton, Gumbel, and Frank). The families of these candidate copulas are selected based on the Akaike Information Criterion (AIC). The Maximum Pseudo-Likelihood (MPL) is used to estimate the parameters of the families of candidate copulas. The values of Brier Score (BS) and Brier Skill Score (BSS) are used to observe the performance, and validity of the MCDPMS, respectively. The MCDPMS is applied to the twelve meteorological stations of Punjab, Pakistan. The outcomes of the MCDPMS provide a better quantitative way to analyze varying drought intensities expeditiously for the selected stations. Furthermore, the results of the study provide valuable references for drought assessment and management.

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Funding

The author extends his appreciation to the Deanship of Scientific Research at King Khalid University for funding this work under grant number (RGP.1/26/42), received by Mohammed M. Almazah (www.kku.edu.sa).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Statistics, Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan

    Rizwan Niaz & Ijaz Hussain

  2. Department of Mathematics, College of Sciences and Arts (Muhyil), King Khalid University, Muhyil, 61421, Saudi Arabia

    Mohammed M. A. Almazah

  3. Department of Mathematics and Computer, College of Sciences, Ibb University, Ibb, 70270, Yemen

    Mohammed M. A. Almazah

  4. Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering Department (DEHA), Federal University of Ceará, Fortaleza, CE, 60020-181, Brazil

    Joao Dehon Pontes Filho

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  1. Rizwan Niaz
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Niaz, R., Almazah, M.M.A., Hussain, I. et al. A new framework to substantiate the prevalence of drought intensities. Theor Appl Climatol 147, 1079–1090 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03876-7

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