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Investigation of seasonal droughts and related large-scale atmospheric dynamics over the Potwar Plateau of Pakistan

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Abstract

As a result of climate change and unsustainable land use management in the recent past, droughts have become one of the most devastating climatic hazards whose impacts may prolong from months to years. This study presents analysis of droughts for two major cropping seasons, i.e., Kharif (May–September) and Rabi (October–April), over the Potwar Plateau of Pakistan. The analysis is performed using various datasets viz. observational, reanalysis, and Regional Climate Models (RCMs), for the past (1981–2010) and future (2011–2100) time periods. The following two methods for the identification of dry and wet years, also referred to as drought and wetness, are applied: (1) the percentile rank approach and (2) the drought indices, Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Reconnaissance Drought Index (RDI). Future projections of droughts are investigated using RCM (RegCM4.4 and RCA4) outputs from CORDEX South Asia domain under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Generally, the indices show non-significant decreasing trends of drought severity in the recent past for all cases; however, significant increasing trends are observed for annual (0.006) and Kharif (0.007) cases under RCP4.5 scenario. The analysis of large-scale atmospheric dynamics suggests the significant role of low-level geopotential height anomalies over Tibetan Plateau (northwest of Pakistan) during Kharif (Rabi) season in controlling drought occurrence by transporting moisture from the Bay of Bengal (Arabian Sea). Moreover, composites of vertically integrated moisture transport, moisture flux convergence/divergence, and precipitable water anomalies show their marked contribution in maintaining the drought/wetness conditions over the Potwar region.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the CORDEX framework, initiated and funded by the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), for providing the regional climate models (RCA4 and RegCM4.4) datasets for South Asia region available at Earth System Grid Federation (ESGF) data portal and hosted at the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI) and Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM), respectively. The authors are also thankful to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) and NCEP (National Center for Environmental prediction)/NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) for providing access to the reanalysis data products. We are grateful to the developers of GPCC, CRU, UDEL, and PREC/L for providing gridded observed precipitation and temperature datasets. We also acknowledge Climate Data Processing Centre (CDPC) Karachi and Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) for the monthly station datasets. This research was funded by the Pakistan Science Foundation (Grant Number: PSF/NSFC-Earth/C-COMSATS-lsb (07)) and Higher Education Commission of Pakistan (Grant Number: 8035/Balochistan/NRPU/R&D/HEC/2017).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Meteorology, COMSATS University Islamabad (CUI), Islamabad, 45550, Pakistan

    N. U. Ain, M. Latif, K. Ullah, R. Ahmed & M. Umar

  2. Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD), National Drought Monitoring Centre, Islamabad, 44000, Pakistan

    S. Adnan

  3. Faculty of Agricultural Engineering and Technology, PMAS Arid Agriculture University, Rawalpindi, 44000, Pakistan

    M. Azam

  4. Postdoctoral Research Associate, Chungbuk National University, Chungcheongbuk-do, South Korea

    M. Azam

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  1. N. U. Ain
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Ain, N.U., Latif, M., Ullah, K. et al. Investigation of seasonal droughts and related large-scale atmospheric dynamics over the Potwar Plateau of Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 140, 69–89 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-019-03064-8

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