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Monsoon rainfall over India in June and link with northwest tropical pacific

June ISMR and link with northwest tropical pacific

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Abstract

Recent years have witnessed large interannual variation of all-India rainfall (AIR) in June, with intermittent large deficits and excesses. Variability of June AIR is found to have the strongest link with variation of rainfall over northwest tropical Pacific (NWTP), with AIR deficit (excess) associated with enhancement (suppression) of NWTP rainfall. This association is investigated using high-resolution Meteorological Research Institute model which shows high skill in simulating important features of Asian summer monsoon, its variability and the inverse relationship between NWTP rainfall and AIR. Analysis of the variation of NWTP rainfall shows that it is associated with a change in the latitudinal position of subtropical westerly jet over the region stretching from West of Tibetan Plateau (WTP) to NWTP and the phase of Rossby wave steered in it with centres over NWTP and WTP. In years with large rainfall excess/deficit, the strong link between AIR and NWTP rainfall exists through differences in Rossby wave phase steered in the jet. The positive phase of the WTP-NWTP pattern, with troughs over WTP and west of NWTP, tends to be associated with increased rainfall over NWTP and decreased AIR. This scenario is reversed in the opposite phase. Thus, the teleconnection between NWTP rainfall and AIR is a manifestation of the difference in the phase of Rossby wave between excess and deficit years, with centres over WTP and NWTP. This brings out the importance of prediction of phase of Rossby waves over WTP and NWTP in advance, for prediction of June rainfall over India.

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Funding

This study received financial support from the Grant-in-aid project, NCAP of MoEFCC (GAP-1009), and the Multi-Scale Modeling Program of CSIR 4PI. The MRI-AGCM3.2 simulations were made by the Earth Simulator of JAMSTEC, under the SOUSEI Program funded by MEXT, Japan.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Multi-Scale Modelling Programme, CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore, 560037, India

    Sajani Surendran & Kavirajan Rajendran

  2. Centre for Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences, Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, 560012, India

    Sulochana Gadgil

  3. Academy of Scientific and Innovative Research, CSIR Fourth Paradigm Institute, Bangalore, 560037, India

    Stella Jes Varghese

  4. Japan Meteorological Business Support Center, Tsukuba, Japan

    Akio Kitoh

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  1. Sajani Surendran
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  2. Sulochana Gadgil
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  4. Stella Jes Varghese
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  5. Akio Kitoh
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Correspondence to Sajani Surendran.

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Surendran, S., Gadgil, S., Rajendran, K. et al. Monsoon rainfall over India in June and link with northwest tropical pacific. Theor Appl Climatol 135, 1195–1213 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2440-6

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