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Quantile regression and clustering analysis of standardized precipitation index in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China

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Abstract

Because drought is a very common and widespread natural disaster, it has attracted a great deal of academic interest. Based on 12-month time scale standardized precipitation indices (SPI12) calculated from precipitation data recorded between 1960 and 2015 at 22 weather stations in the Tarim River Basin (TRB), this study aims to identify the trends of SPI and drought duration, severity, and frequency at various quantiles and to perform cluster analysis of drought events in the TRB. The results indicated that (1) both precipitation and temperature at most stations in the TRB exhibited significant positive trends during 1960–2015; (2) multiple scales of SPIs changed significantly around 1986; (3) based on quantile regression analysis of temporal drought changes, the positive SPI slopes indicated less severe and less frequent droughts at lower quantiles, but clear variation was detected in the drought frequency; and (4) significantly different trends were found in drought frequency probably between severe droughts and drought frequency.

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Acknowledgments

The authors thank the National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, for providing the meteorological data for this study.

Funding

The research is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program: 2012CB956204).

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Key Laboratory of Water Cycle & Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100101, China

    Peng Yang, Jun Xia, Yongyong Zhang, Jian Han & Xia Wu

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100049, China

    Peng Yang, Jian Han & Xia Wu

  3. State Key Laboratory of Water Resources & Hydropower Engineering Sciences, Wuhan University, Wuhan, 430000, China

    Jun Xia

Authors
  1. Peng Yang
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  2. Jun Xia
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  3. Yongyong Zhang
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  4. Jian Han
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  5. Xia Wu
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Correspondence to Jun Xia.

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Yang, P., Xia, J., Zhang, Y. et al. Quantile regression and clustering analysis of standardized precipitation index in the Tarim River Basin, Xinjiang, China. Theor Appl Climatol 134, 901–912 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2313-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2313-4

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