Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Urbanization plays an important role in altering local to regional climate. In this study, the trends in precipitation and the air temperature were investigated for urban and peri-urban areas of 18 mega cities selected from six continents (representing a wide range of climatic patterns). Multiple statistical tests were used to examine long-term trends in annual and seasonal precipitation and air temperature for the selected cities. The urban and peri-urban areas were classified based on the percentage of land imperviousness. Through this study, it was evident that removal of the lag-k serial correlation caused a reduction of approximately 20 to 30% in significant trend observability for temperature and precipitation data. This observation suggests that appropriate trend analysis methodology for climate studies is necessary. Additionally, about 70% of the urban areas showed higher positive air temperature trends, compared with peri-urban areas. There were not clear trend signatures (i.e., mix of increase or decrease) when comparing urban vs peri-urban precipitation in each selected city. Overall, cities located in dry areas, for example, in Africa, southern parts of North America, and Eastern Asia, showed a decrease in annual and seasonal precipitation, while wetter conditions were favorable for cities located in wet regions such as, southeastern South America, eastern North America, and northern Europe. A positive relationship was observed between decadal trends of annual/seasonal air temperature and precipitation for all urban and peri-urban areas, with a higher rate being observed for urban areas.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexander L, Zhang X, Peterson T, Caesar J, Gleason B, Klein Tank A et al (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of air temperature and precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 1984–2012:111

    Google Scholar 

  • Angel S, Parent J, Civco DL, Blei A, Potere D (2011) The dimensions of global urban expansion: estimates and projections for all countries, 2000–2050. Prog Plan 75:53–107

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Argüeso D, Di Luca A, Evans JP (2016) Clim Dyn 47:1143. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2893-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bentley ML, Ashley WS, Stallins JA (2010) Climatological radar delineation of urban convection for Atlanta, Georgia. Int J Climatol 30(11):1589–1594

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Burian SJ, Shepherd JM (2005) Effect of urbanization on the diurnal rainfall pattern in Houston. Hydrol.Process. 19:1089–1103

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Changnon, S. A., and Westcott, N. E. (2002) Heavy Rainstorms in Chicago: Increasing Frequency, Altered Impacts, and Future Implications1

  • Di Luca A, de Elía R, Laprise R (2015) Challenges in the quest for added value of regional climate dynamical downscaling. Current Climate Change Reports 1(1):10–21

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diem JE, Mote TL (2005) Interepochal changes in summer precipitation in the southeastern United States: evidence of possible urban effects near Atlanta, Georgia. J Appl Meteorol 44(5):717–730

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon PG, Mote TL (2003) Patterns and causes of Atlanta's urban heat island-initiated precipitation. J Appl Meteorol 42(9):1273–1284

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drápela K, Drápelová I (2011) Application of Mann-Kendall test and the Sen’s slope estimates for trend detection in deposition data from Bílý Kříž (Beskydy Mts., the Czech Republic) 1997-2010. Beskydy 4:133–146

    Google Scholar 

  • Fumiaki F (2009) Detection of urban warming in recent temperature trends in Japan. Int J Climatol 29:1811–1822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Funk C et al (2015) The Centennial Trends Greater Horn of Africa precipitation dataset. Sci Data 2:150050. doi:10.1038/sdata.2015.50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ganeshan M, Murtugudde R, Imhoff ML (2013) A multi-city analysis of the UHI-influence on warm season rainfall. Urban Climate 6:1–23

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haan, C. T., (2002) Statistical methods in hydrology

  • Hamed KH, Rao AR (1998) A modified Mann-Kendall trend test for autocorrelated data. J Hydrol 204:182–196

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Han L, Xu Y, Pan G, Deng X, Hu C, Xu H, Shi H (2015) Changing properties of precipitation extremes in the urban areas, Yangtze River Delta, China, during 1957–2013. Nat Hazards 79(1):437–454

  • Hu Y, Jia G (2010) Influence of land use change on urban heat island derived from multi-sensor data. Int J Climatol 30(9):1382–1395. doi:10.1002/joc.1984

    Google Scholar 

  • Hu C, Xu Y, Han L, Yang L, Xu G (2016) Long-term trends in daily precipitation over the Yangtze River Delta region during 1960–2012, Eastern China. Theor Appl Climatol 125(1):131–147

  • Inoue T, Kimura F (2007) Numerical experiments on fair-weather clouds forming over the urban area in northern Tokyo. SOLA 3:125–128

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karabulut M, Gürbüz M, Korkmaz H (2008) Precipitation and temperature trend analyses in Samsun. Journal International Environmental Application & Science 3(5):399–408

    Google Scholar 

  • Karmeshu, N. (2012) Trend detection in annual temperature and precipitation using the Mann Kendall test—a case study to assess climate change on select states in the northeastern United States

  • Kaufmann RK, Seto KC, Schneider A, Liu Z, Zhou L, Wang W (2007) Climate response to rapid urban growth: evidence of a human-induced precipitation deficit. JClim 20:2299–2306

    Google Scholar 

  • Keggenhoff I, Elizbarashvili M, Amiri-Farahani A, King L (2014) Trends in daily temperature and precipitation extremes over Georgia, 1971–2010. Weather and Climate Extremes 4:75–85

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kendall M (1975) Rank correlation methods. Griffin & Co, London

    Google Scholar 

  • Kephe PN, Petja BM, Kabanda TA (2016) Theoretical Applied Climatology 126:233. doi:10.1007/s00704-015-1569-9

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kharol SK, Kaskaoutis D, Sharma AR, Singh RP (2013) Long-term (1951–2007) rainfall trends around six Indian cities: current state, meteorological, and urban dynamics. Adv Meteorol 2013

  • Kug JS, Ahn MS (2013) Impact of urbanization on recent temperature and precipitation trends in the Korean peninsula. Asia-Pac J Atmos Sci 49(2):151–159

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kumar S, Merwade V, Kam J, Thurner K (2009) Streamflow trends in Indiana: effects of long term persistence, precipitation and subsurface drains. J Hydrol 374(1):171–183

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kusaka H, Nawata K, Suzuki-Parker A, Takane Y, Furuhashi N (2014) Mechanism of precipitation increase with urbanization in Tokyo as revealed by ensemble climate simulations. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 53(4):824–839

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Latham, J., Cumani, R., Rosati, I., Bloise, M. (2014) Global Land Cover SHARE (GLC-SHARE) database Beta-Release Version 1.0

  • Laurian L (2013) Climate change and cities: first assessment report of the urban climate change research network. J Plan Educ Res 33:242–244

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu S, Chen M, Zhuang Q (2014) Aerosol effects on global land surface energy fluxes during 2003–2010. Geophys Res Lett 41. doi:10.1002/ 2014GL061640

  • Lu D, Weng Q (2006) Use of impervious surface in urban land-use classification. Remote Sens Environ 102(1):146–160

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Luo Y, Liu S, Fu S, Liu J, Wang G, Zhou G (2008) Trends of precipitation in Beijing River basin, Guangdong province. China Hydrol Process 22:2377–2386

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann HB (1945) Non-parametric tests against trend. Econo-metrica: Journal of the Econometric Society:245–259

  • Mishra AK, Singh VP (2010) Changes in extreme precipitation in Texas. J Geophys Res 115:D14106. doi:10.1029/2009JD013398

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mishra AK, Singh VP, Özger M (2011) Seasonal streamflow extremes in Texas river basins: uncertainty, trends, and teleconnections. J Geophys Res 116:D08108. doi:10.1029/2010JD014597

    Google Scholar 

  • Niyogi D, Alapaty K, Raman S, Chen F (2009) Development and evaluation of a coupled photosynthesis-based gas exchange evapotranspiration model (GEM) for mesoscale weather forecasting applications. J Appl Meteorol Climatol 48(2):349–368

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • O'Gorman PA, Schneider T (2009) The physical basis for increases in precipitation extremes in simulations of 21st-century climate change. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(35):14773–14777

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pingale SM, Khare D, Jat MK, Adamowski J (2014) Spatial and temporal trends of mean and extreme rainfall and temperature for the 33 urban centers of the arid and semi-arid state of Rajasthan, India. Atmos Res 138:73–90

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Rosenzweig C, Solecki WD, Hammer SA, Mehrotra S (2011) Climate change and cities: first assessment report of the urban climate change research network. Cambridge University Press

  • Schneider U, Becker A, Finger P, Meyer-Christoffer A, Ziese M, Rudolf B (2014) GPCC’s new land surface precipitation climatology based on quality-controlled in situ data and its role in quantifying the global water cycle. Theor Appl Climatol 115:15–40

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Seto KC, Fragkias M, Güneralp B, Reilly MK (2011) A meta-analysis of global urban land expansion. PLoS One 6(8):e23777. doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0023777

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shahid S, Wang X-J, Harun SB, Shamsudin SB, Ismail T, Minhans A (2015) Climate variability and changes in the major cities of Bangladesh: observations, possible impacts and adaptation. Reg Environ Chang. doi:10.1007/s10113-015-0757-6

    Google Scholar 

  • Sharma CS, Panda SN, Pradhan RP, Singh A, Kawamura A (2016) Precipitation and temperature changes in eastern India by multiple trend detection methods. Atmos Res 180:211–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shepherd JM, Pierce H, Negri AJ (2002) Rainfall modification by major urban areas: observations from space borne rain radar on the TRMM satellite. J Appl Meteorol 41(7):689–701

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shepherd JM (2006) Evidence of urban-induced precipitation variability in arid climate regimes. J Arid Environ 67(4):607–628

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stallins, J. A., Bentley, M. L., and Ashley, W. S. (2010) Climatological radar delineation of urban convection for Atlanta, Georgia

    Google Scholar 

  • Sun Q, Kong D, Miao C, Duan Q et al (2014) Variations in global temperature and precipitation for the period of 1948 to 2010. Environ Monit Assess 186(9):5663–5679

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tayanc M, Toros H (1997) Urbanization effects on regional climate change in the case of four large cities of Turkey. Clim Chang 35(4):501–524

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Trenberth KE, Caron JM (2000) The Southern Oscillation revisited: sea level pressures, surface air temperatures, and precipitation. J Clim 13:4358–4365

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • UNFPA, State of the World Population (2007) Unleashing the potential of urban growth. UNFPA, New York 45

  • Velpuri N, Senay G (2013) Analysis of long-term trends (1950–2009) in precipitation, runoff and runoff coefficient in major urban watersheds in the United States. Environ Res Lett 8:024020

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Wang C (2004) The Mann-Kendall test modified by effective sample size to detect trend in serially correlated hydrological series. Water Resour Manag 18:201–218

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. HydrolProcess 16:1807–1829

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors would like acknowledge the Higher Committee for Education Development, Iraq, for sponsoring this work. We would also like to extend our gratitude to the editor and two anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments that helped us to improve the quality of our manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Glenn Department of Civil Engineering, Clemson University, 131G Lowry Hall, Clemson, SC, 29634-0911, USA

    Aws A. Ajaaj, Ashok K. Mishra & Abdul A. Khan

Authors
  1. Aws A. Ajaaj
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Ashok K. Mishra
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Abdul A. Khan
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ashok K. Mishra.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare that they have no conflict of interest.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Ajaaj, A.A., Mishra, A.K. & Khan, A.A. Urban and peri-urban precipitation and air temperature trends in mega cities of the world using multiple trend analysis methods. Theor Appl Climatol 132, 403–418 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2096-7

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-017-2096-7

Keywords

Search

Navigation