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Past and future direct radiative forcing of nitrate aerosol in East Asia

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Abstract

Nitrate as a rapidly increasing aerosol species in recent years affects the present climate and potentially has large implications on the future climate. In this study, the long-term direct radiative forcing (DRF) of nitrate aerosol is investigated using State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG) atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) and the aerosol dataset simulated by a chemical transport model with focus on East Asia. The DRF due to other aerosols, especially sulfate, is also evaluated for comparisons. Although the chemical transport model underestimates the magnitudes of nitrate and sulfate aerosols when compared with Chinese site observations, some insights into the significances of nitrate climate effects still emerge. The present-day global annual mean all-sky DRF of nitrate is calculated to be −0.025 W m−2 relative to the preindustrial era, which is much weaker than −0.37 W m−2 for sulfate. However, nitrate DRF may become increasingly important in the future especially over East Asia, given the expectation that decreasing trend in global sulfate continues while the projected nitrate maintains at the present level for a mid-range forcing scenario and even be a factor of two larger by the end of the 21st century for high emission scenarios. For example, the anthropogenic nitrate DRF of −2.0 W m−2 over eastern China could persist until the 2050s, and nitrate is projected to account for over 60 % of total anthropogenic aerosol DRF over East Asia by 2100. In addition, we illustrate that the regional nitrate DRF and its seasonal variation are sensitive to meteorological parameters, in particular the relative humidity and cloud amount. It thus remains a need for climate models to include more realistically nitrate aerosol in projecting future climate changes.

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Acknowledgments

This research was supported jointly by the National Basic Research Program of China (Grant Nos. 2013CB955803 and 2012CB955303) and the Office of Biological and Environmental Sciences, USA Department of Energy (grant to SUNYA). The authors would like to thank Dr. Lamarque of the NCAR for providing the NCAR CAM-Chem aerosol mass dataset.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics (LASG), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China

    Jiandong Li

  2. Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, Albany, NY, 12203, USA

    Wei-Chyung Wang

  3. State Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Physics and Atmospheric Chemistry (LAPC), Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 100029, Beijing, China

    Hong Liao & Wenyuan Chang

  4. Collaborative Innovation Center on Forecast and Evaluation of Meteorological Disasters, Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology, 210044, Nanjing, China

    Jiandong Li

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  1. Jiandong Li
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  4. Wenyuan Chang
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Correspondence to Jiandong Li.

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Li, J., Wang, WC., Liao, H. et al. Past and future direct radiative forcing of nitrate aerosol in East Asia. Theor Appl Climatol 121, 445–458 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1249-1

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