Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Assessing the capability of CORDEX models in simulating onset of rainfall in West Africa

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Theoretical and Applied Climatology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Reliable forecasts of rainfall-onset dates (RODs) are crucial for agricultural planning and food security in West Africa. This study evaluates the ability of nine CORDEX regional climate models (RCMs: ARPEGE, CRCM5, RACMO, RCA35, REMO, RegCM3, PRECIS, CCLM and WRF) in simulating RODs over the region. Four definitions are used to compute RODs, and two observation datasets (GPCP and TRMM) are used in the model evaluation. The evaluation considers how well the RCMs, driven by ERA-Interim reanalysis (ERAIN), simulate the observed mean, standard deviation and inter-annual variability of RODs over West Africa. It also investigates how well the models link RODs with the northward movement of the monsoon system over the region. The model performances are compared to that of the driving reanalysis—ERAIN. Observations show that the mean RODs in West Africa have a zonal distribution, and the dates increase from the Guinea coast northward. ERAIN fails to reproduce the spatial distribution of the RODs as observed. The performance of some RCMs in simulating the RODs depends on the ROD definition used. For instance, ARPEGE, RACMO, PRECIS and CCLM produce a better ROD distribution than that of ERAIN when three of the ROD definitions are used, but give a worse ROD distribution than that of ERAIN when the fourth definition is used. However, regardless of the definition used, CCRM5, RCA35, REMO, RegCM3 and WRF show a remarkable improvement over ERAIN. The study shows that the ability of the RCMs in simulating RODs over West Africa strongly depends on how well the models reproduce the northward movement of the monsoon system and the associated features. The results show that there are some differences in the RODs obtained between the two observation datasets and RCMs, and the differences are magnified by differences in the ROD definitions. However, the study shows that most CORDEX RCMs have remarkable skills in predicting the RODs in West Africa.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4
Fig. 5
Fig. 6
Fig. 7
Fig. 8
Fig. 9
Fig. 10
Fig. 11
Fig. 12
Fig. 13

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Abiodun BJ, Pal JS, Afiesimama EA, Gutowski WJ, Adedoyin A (2008) Simulation of West African monsoon using RegCM3 part II: impacts of deforestation and desertification. Theor Appl Climatol 93:245–261. doi:10.1007/s00704-007-0333-1

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abiodun BJ, Gutowski W, Abatan AA, Prusa JM (2011) CAM-EULAG: a non hydrostatic atmospheric climate model with grid stretching. Acta Geophys 59(6):1158–1167

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Abiodun BJ, Adeyewa ZD, Oguntunde PG, Salami AT, Ajayi VO (2012) Modelling the impacts of reforestation on future climate in West Africa. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0614-1

  • Afiesimama EA, Pal JS, Abiodun BJ, Gutowski WJ, Adedoyin A (2006) Simulation of West African monsoon using the RegCM3. Part I: model validation and interannual variability. Theor Appl Climatol 86:23–37

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • AGRHYMET (1996) Méthodologie de suivi des zones à risque. AGRHYMET FLASH, Bulletin de Suivi de la Campagne Agricole au Sahel 0/96, Vol. 2, 2 pp. [Available at Centre Regional AGRHYMET, B.P. 11011, Niamey, Niger.]

  • Ati FO, Stitger CJ, Oladipo EO (2002) A comparison of methods to determine the onset of the growing season in northern Nigeria. Int J Climatol 22:731–742

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cocheme J, Franquin P (1967) An agro-climatology survey of a semi-arid area in Africa, South of Sahara, FAO/WMO Technical Bulletin 86

  • Cook KH, Vizy EK (2006) Coupled model simulations of the West African monsoon system: twentieth- and twenty-first-century simulations. J Clim 19:3681–3703

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dee DP et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q.J.R. Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. doi:10.1002/qj.828

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Diallo I, Sylla MB, Giorgi F, Gaye AT, Camara M (2012a) Multi-model GCM-RCM ensemble-based projections of temperature and precipitation over West Africa for the early 21st century. Int J Geophys, Article ID 972896

  • Diallo I, Sylla MB, Camara M, Gaye AT (2012b) Interannual variability of rainfall and circulation features over the Sahel based on multiple regional climate models simulations. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0791-y

  • Djiotang et al (2010) Sensitivity of the simulated African monsoon of summers 1993 and 1999 to convective parameterization schemes in RegCM3. Theor Appl Climatol 100:207–220

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Drobinski P, Sultan B, Janicot S (2005) Role of the Hoggar massif in the West African monsoon onset. Geophys Res Lett 32, L01705. doi:10.1029/2004GL020710

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Druyan LM, Feng J, Cook KH, Xue Y, Fulakeza M, Hagos SM, Konare A, Moufouma-okia W, Rowell DP, Vizy EK, Ibrah SS (2010) The WAMME regional model intercomparison study. Clim Dyn 35:175–192

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Eltahir E, Gong C (1996) Dynamics of wet and dry years in West Africa. J Clim 9:1030–1042

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fontaine B, Louvet S, Roucou P (2008) Definition and predictability of an OLR-based West African monsoon onset. Int J Climatol 28:1787–1798

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fulakeza M, Druyan L, Krishnamurti T (2002) A simple soil moisture scheme for climate simulations in the tropics. Atmos Phys 79:105–126

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Gbobaniyi E, Sarr A, Sylla MB, Diallo I, Lennard C, Dosio A, Dhiédiou A, Kamga A, Klutse NAB, Hewitson B, Nikulin G, Lamptey B (2013) Climatology, annual cycle and interannual variability of precipitation and temperature in CORDEX simulations over West Africa. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3834

  • Giorgi F, Marinucci M (1996) An investigation of the sensitivity of simulated precipitation to model resolution and its implication for climate studies. Mon Weather Rev 124:148–166

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hourdin, F, Mustat, I, Guichard, F, Ruti, PM, & Favot, F. Pham MMA, Grandpeix JY, Polcher J, Marquet P, Boone A, Lafore JP, Redelsperger JL, Dell’Aquilla A, Losada Doval T, Traore AK, Gallee H (2010) AMMA-Model intercomparison project. Bull Am Meteorol Soc

  • Huffman GJ, Bolvin DT (2011) TRMM and other data precipitation data set documentation. NASAGSFC Rep., 29 pp. ftp://precip.gsfc.nasa.gov/pub/trmmdocs/3B42_3B43_doc.pdf. Accessed 23 July 2013

  • Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Morrissey MM, Bolvin DT, Curtis S, Joyce R, McGavock B, Susskind J (2001) Global precipitation at one-degree daily resolution from multi-satellite observations. J Hydrometeorol 2:36–50

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huffman GJ et al (2007) The TRMM multisatellite precipitation analysis (TMPA): quasi-global, multiyear. combined-sensor precipitation estimates at fine scales. J Hydrometeorol 8:38–55

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Huffman GJ, Adler RF, Bolvin DT, Gu G (2009) Improving the global precipitation record: GPCP version 2.1. Geophys Res Lett 36, L17808. doi:10.1029/2009GL040000

  • Janicot S, Harzallah A, Fontaine B, Moron V (1998) West African monsoon dynamics and eastern equatorial Atlantic and Pacific SST anomalies (1970–88). J Clim 11:1874–1882

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Krishna et al (2011) Customization of WRF-ARW model with physical parameterization schemes for the simulation of tropical cyclones over North Indian Ocean. Nat Hazards. doi:10.1007/s11069-011-9862-0

  • Lamb PJ, Peppler RA (1992) Further case studies of tropical Atlantic surface atmospheric and oceanic patterns associated with sub-Saharan drought. J Clim 5:476–488

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laux P, Kunstmann H, árdossy AB (2008) Predicting the regional onset of the rainy season in West Africa. Int J Climatol 28:329–342

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Le Barbe L, Lebel T, Tapsoba D (2002) Rainfall variability in West Africa during the years 1950–1990. J Clim 15(2):187–202

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nicholson SE, Some B, Kone B (2000) An analysis of recent rainfall conditions in West Africa, including the rainy seasons of the 1997 El Niño and the 1998 La Niña years. J Clim 13:2628–2640

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nikulin G et al (2012) Precipitation climatology in an ensemble of CORDEX-Africa regional climate simulations. J Clim 25:6057–6078

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Odekunle TO (2006) Determining rainy season onset and retreat over Nigeria from precipitation amount and number of rainy days. Theor Appl Climatol 83:193–201

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Oduru AK (1989) On the mean monthly equivalent potential temperature and rainfall in West Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 39:188–193

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omotosho JB (1990) Onset thunderstorms and precipitation over northern Nigeria. Int J Climatol 10:849–860

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omotosho JB (1992) Long-range prediction of the onset and end of the rainy season in the West African Sahel. Int J Climatol 12:369–382

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omotosho JB, Abiodun BJ (2007) A numerical study of moisture build-up and rainfall over West Africa. Meteorol Appl 14:209–225

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Omotosho JB, Balogun AA, Ogunjobi K (2000) Predicting monthly and seasonal rainfall, onset and cessation of the rainy season in West Africa using only surface data. Int J Climatol 20:865–880

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Paeth H, Hall NMJ, Gaertner MA, Alonso MD, Moumouni S, Polcher J, Ruti PM, Fink AH, Gosset M, Lebel T, Gaye AT, Rowell DP, Moufouma-Okia W, Jacob D, Rockel B, Giorgi F, Rummukainen M (2011) Progress in regional downscaling of West African precipitation. Atmos Sci Lett 12:75–82. doi:10.1002/asl.306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pu B, Cook KH (2010) Dynamics of the West African westerly jet. J Clim 23:6263–6276

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramel R, Gallée H, Messager C (2006) On the northward shift of the West African monsoon. Clim Dyn Res 26:429–440. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0093-5

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Reynolds RW, Smith TM, Liu C, Chelton DB, Casey KS, Schlax MG (2007) Daily high-resolution-blended analyses for sea surface temperature. J Clim 20:5473–5496

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ruti PM et al (2011) The West African climate system: a review of the AMMA model inter-comparison initiatives. Atmos Sci Lett 12:116–122. doi:10.1002/asl.305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sarria-Dodd DE, Jolliffe IT (2001) Early detection of the wet season in semiarid tropical climates of western Africa. Int J Climatol 21:1251–1262

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sijikumar S, Roucou P, Fontaine B (2006) Monsoon onset over Sudan-Sahel: simulation by the regional scale model MM5. Geophys Res Lett 33: L03814. doi:10.1029/2005GL024819

  • Sivakumar MVK (1988) Predicting rainy season potential from the onset of rains in the Southern Sahelian and Sudanian climatic zones of West Africa. Agric For Meteorol 42:295–305

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Stern RD, Dennett MD, Garbutt DJ (1981) The start of the rains in West Africa. J Clim 1:59–68

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sultan B, Janicot S (2003) The West African monsoon dynamics. Part II: the “preonset” and “onset” of the summer monsoon. J Clim 16:3407–3427

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sylla MB et al (2009) High-resolution simulations of West African climate using regional climate model (RegCM3) with different lateral boundary conditions. Theor Appl Climatol 98:293–314

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sylla MB, Dell’Aquila A, Ruti PM, Giorgi F (2010) Simulation of the intraseasonal and the interannual variability of rainfall over West Africa with a RegCM3 during the monsoon period. Int J Climatol 30:1865–1883

    Google Scholar 

  • Sylla MB, Giorgi F, Coppola E, Mariotti L (2012) Uncertainties in daily rainfall over Africa: assessment of gridded observation products and evaluation of a regional climate model simulation. Int J Climatol

  • Sylla MB, Diallo I, Pal JS (2013) West African monsoon in state-of-the-science regional climate models. doi. 10.5772/55140

  • Van der Linden, Mitchell (2009) ENSEMBLES: climate change and its impacts: summary of research and results from the ENSEMBLES project. Met Office Hadley Centre: Exter

  • Vanvyve E, Hall N, Messager C (2007) Internal variability in a regional climate model over West Africa. Clim Dyn. doi 10.1007/s00382-007-0281-6

  • Vigaud N et al (2009) WRF/ARPEGE-CLIMAT simulated climate trends over West Africa. Clim Dyn 36:925–944. doi:10.1007/s00382-009-0707-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xue Y et al (2010) Intercomparison and analyses of the climatology of the West African Monsoon in the West African monsoon modeling and evaluation project (WAMME) first model intercomparison experiment. Clim Dyn 35:3–27. doi:10.1007/s00382-010-0778-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

This research was supported through the Graduate Research Program in West African Climate System (GRP-WACS) of the West African Science Service Centre for Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) hosted by the Federal University of Akure (FUTA, Nigeria). We thank the Climate Systems Analysis Group (CSAG) of the University of Cape Town (UCT, South Africa) for the CORDEX data. We thank the two anonymous reviewers whose comments significantly has improved the quality of this manuscript.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Climate Systems Analysis Group, Department of Environmental and Geographical Science, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa

    Moussa S. Mounkaila & Babatunde J. Abiodun

  2. West African Science Service Center for Climate Change and Adapted Land Use (WASCAL) Graduate Research Program, Federal University of Technology Akure, Akure, Nigeria

    Moussa S. Mounkaila & J. ‘Bayo Omotosho

Authors
  1. Moussa S. Mounkaila
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Babatunde J. Abiodun
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. J. ‘Bayo Omotosho
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Babatunde J. Abiodun.

Electronic supplementary material

Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.

ESM 1

(DOC 1,589 kb)

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Mounkaila, M.S., Abiodun, B.J. & ‘Bayo Omotosho, J. Assessing the capability of CORDEX models in simulating onset of rainfall in West Africa. Theor Appl Climatol 119, 255–272 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1104-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-014-1104-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation