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Climate variability analysis of winter temperatures in the central Mediterranean since 1500 AD

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Abstract

This work presents the reconstruction of a time series of annual winter air temperatures across Central and Southern Italy for the period 1500–2010 that largely overlaps the Little Ice Age (LIA) period (1300–1850). A detailed analysis was undertaken on winter mean temperature data using both observations (1871–2010) and proxy-based reconstructions (1500–1870). Based on this homogeneized reconstructed series, a time-dependency in low-frequency time-pattern of temperatures (70- and 130-year cycles) was suggested although the temporal oscillation was not merely periodic. The LIA was characterized by marked climatic variability over this part of Southern Europe, with particular emphasis during the so-called “Maunder Minimum” (MM), between 1645 and 1715. The interannual variability of low temperatures, in particular, makes the MM an outstanding climatic period. There is some consistency that patterns of warming conditions observed in recent times also occurred in the past. Quasiperiodic cycles appear as a consequence of stochastic resonance emerging in long time scales but the variability inherent to the series of winter temperatures, although likely generated by processes internal to the climate system, is difficult to forecast because the system is chaotic and affected by unpredictable noise.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. MetEROBS—Met European Research Observatory, Via Monte Pino snc, 82100, Benevento, Italy

    Nazzareno Diodato

  2. MetEROBS—Met European Research Observatory, GEWEX-CEOP Network, World Climate Research Programme, Via Monte Pino snc, 82100, Benevento, Italy

    Gianni Bellocchi

  3. Grassland Ecosystem Research Unit, French National Institute of Agricultural Research, 5 Chemin de Beaulieu, 63039, Clermont-Ferrand, France

    Gianni Bellocchi

  4. Atmosphere and Ocean Science Institute, National Research Council of Italy, Corso Stati Uniti 4, 35127, Padua, Italy

    Chiara Bertolin & Dario Camuffo

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  1. Nazzareno Diodato
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  2. Gianni Bellocchi
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  3. Chiara Bertolin
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  4. Dario Camuffo
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Correspondence to Gianni Bellocchi.

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Diodato, N., Bellocchi, G., Bertolin, C. et al. Climate variability analysis of winter temperatures in the central Mediterranean since 1500 AD. Theor Appl Climatol 116, 203–210 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0945-6

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