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To begin or not to begin? A case study on the MJO initiation problem

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Abstract

Mechanisms for convective initiation of the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) remain poorly understood. During recent years, <50 % of large-scale convectively active episodes over the tropical Indian Ocean have led to MJO initiation. This study explores the structure and evolution of precipitation, diabatic heating, and potential vorticity (PV) that might be used to tell whether an MJO event will be initiated once such a convection episode occurs. Three different cases are studied. As convection becomes active in a large area over the tropical Indian Ocean, early signs favorable for MJO initiation are apparent: a persistent basin-scale coverage in the zonal direction by positive anomalies in precipitation and diabatic heating (in a swallowtail pattern), a persistent vertical dipole of PV generation with cyclonic (anticyclonic) PV generation in the lower (upper) troposphere covering a zonally extended area, and a cyclonic PV anomaly in the midtroposphere with a cyclonic PV pair straddling the equator immediately west of the diabatic heating center. All these signs are robust in the MJO composite but rarely occur all together in a given MJO case. The likelihood of an MJO event following a convective episode over the tropical Indian Ocean depends on how many of these signs occur and how persistent they are. While a preexisting MJO signal is neither a necessary nor a sufficient sign for MJO initiation, an active convective episode over the tropical Indian Ocean is necessary but insufficient for MJO initiation. MJO initiation depends on detailed convective behaviors over the tropical Indian Ocean.

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Acknowledgments

Two anonymous reviewers provided careful comments on the submitted manuscript, which helped improve this article. The author is grateful to Chidong Zhang for his comments and suggestions on an early manuscript of this article. This study was supported by NSF Grant ATM0739402, the National Natural Science Foundation of China (grant no. U0833602), and the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program, 2010CB428606). The online availability of the ERA-Interim products, TRMM rainfall data, and MJO RMM index is highly appreciated.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, University of Miami, Miami, FL, 33149, USA

    Jian Ling

  2. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading, RG2 9AX, UK

    Jian Ling

  3. The State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 100029, China

    Chongyin Li

  4. Guy Carpenter Asia-Pacific Climate Impact Centre, School of Energy and Environment, City University of Hong Kong, Kowloon Tong, Hong Kong

    Wen Zhou

  5. Climate Prediction Division, National Climate Center, Beijing, 100081, China

    Xiaolong Jia

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  1. Jian Ling
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  2. Chongyin Li
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  4. Xiaolong Jia
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Correspondence to Jian Ling.

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Ling, J., Li, C., Zhou, W. et al. To begin or not to begin? A case study on the MJO initiation problem. Theor Appl Climatol 115, 231–241 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0889-x

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-013-0889-x

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