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The stochastic properties of high daily maximum temperatures applying crossing theory to modeling high-temperature event variables

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Abstract

The statistical properties of the excursions of maximum daily temperatures above various critical thresholds of interest are analyzed with a view to developing models of heat wave events using more than 100 years of record from meteorological stations in Lake City, DeFuniak Springs, Avon Park, and Fort Myers, Florida. These stochastic variables include; event density (number of such events per unit time), duration, timing, and peak values over the threshold. The theoretical basis for the modeling is found in Crossing Theory. The methodology has the flexibility to extrapolate to such levels while also having the advantage of being able to be applied to spatially differentiated data to determine risks associated with high-temperature events during any time period or at any location of interest.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Geography, University of Florida, 3141 Turlington Hall, P.O. Box 117315, Gainesville, FL, 32611-7315, USA

    David Keellings & Peter Waylen

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  1. David Keellings
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  2. Peter Waylen
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Correspondence to David Keellings.

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Keellings, D., Waylen, P. The stochastic properties of high daily maximum temperatures applying crossing theory to modeling high-temperature event variables. Theor Appl Climatol 108, 579–590 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0553-2

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