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Simulation of extreme precipitation indices in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method (SDSM)

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Abstract

In this study, the applicability of the statistical downscaling model (SDSM) in modeling five extreme precipitation indices including R10 (no. of days with precipitation ≥10 mm day−1), SDI (simple daily intensity), CDD (maximum number of consecutive dry days), R1d (maximum 1-day precipitation total) and R5d (maximum 5-day precipitation total) in the Yangtze River basin, China was investigated. The investigation mainly includes the calibration and validation of SDSM model on downscaling daily precipitation, the validation of modeling extreme precipitation indices using independent period of the NCEP reanalysis data, and the projection of future regional scenarios of extreme precipitation indices. The results showed that: (1) there existed good relationship between the observed and simulated extreme precipitation indices during validation period of 1991–2000, the amount and the change pattern of extreme precipitation indices could be reasonably simulated by SDSM. (2) Under both scenarios A2 and B2, during the projection period of 2010–2099, the changes of annual mean extreme precipitation indices in the Yangtze River basin would be not obvious in 2020s; while slightly increase in the 2050s; and significant increase in the 2080s as compared to the mean values of the base period. The summer might be the more distinct season with more projected increase of each extreme precipitation indices than in other seasons. And (3) there would be distinctive spatial distribution differences for the change of annual mean extreme precipitation indices in the river basin, but the most of Yangtze River basin would be dominated by the increasing trend.

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Acknowledgments

This paper was financially supported by Forestry Industry Research special funds for Public Welfare Projects “Study of water resource control function of typical forest vegetation in the region of Yangtze river delta” (No: 201104005–04), fully supported by Key Project of National Science and Technology during the 11th Five-Year Plan (No. 2006BAD03A16), National Nature Science Foundation of China (Grant No: 40801015), State Key Laboratory of Hydrology—Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering fund from Hohai University (Project No. 2008zd07), Ministry of Water Resources’ special funds for scientific research on public causes, (No. 200901042). We would like to thank the National Climate Centre (NCC) in Beijing for providing valuable climate datasets.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Jin Huang

  2. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Forestry Ecological Engineering, Nanjing Forestry University, Long pan Road 159, Nanjing, 210037, China

    Jinchi Zhang, Zengxin Zhang & Jian Yao

  3. Applied Hydrometeorological Research Institute, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing, 210044, China

    Shanlei Sun

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  1. Jin Huang
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Correspondence to Jinchi Zhang.

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Huang, J., Zhang, J., Zhang, Z. et al. Simulation of extreme precipitation indices in the Yangtze River basin by using statistical downscaling method (SDSM). Theor Appl Climatol 108, 325–343 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0536-3

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