Abstract
Many areas of society are susceptible to the effects of extreme temperatures. Without an adequate definition of what constitutes heat and cold waves, it is impossible to assess either their changes in the past or their possible consequences for the future. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change recommended criteria for heat wave duration indexes based on two arbitrarily defined constants. The principal weakness of this approach is that it does not yield comparable results for different geographical locations. This paper remedies the current lack of a meteorologically based definition of heat and cold waves and offers a preliminary test of its performance. Having previously shown that maximum daily temperature values follow normal frequency distribution, we derive statistical thresholds (e.g., below and above normal) from that distribution. These thresholds are thus climate specific and their change can be compared across geographical locations. These criteria are then tested on the homogeneous time series of maximum daily temperature observed for the period 1961–2008 with respect to three different geographical locations. The results obtained show an increase in the frequency of heat waves for the period 1991–2008 in comparison with the normal climatological period 1961–1990.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Alexander LV, Zhang X, Peterson TC, Caesar J, Gleason B, Tank K, Haylock M, Collins D, Trewin B, Rahimzadeh F, Tagipour A, Rupa Kumar K, Revadekar J, Griffiths G, Vincent L, Stephenson DB, Burn J, Aguilar E, Brunet M, Taylor M, New M, Zhai P, Rusticucci M, Vazquez-Aguirre JL (2006) Global observed changes in daily climate extremes of temperature and precipitation. J Geophys Res Atmos 111:D05109. doi:10.1029/2005JD006290
Coles S (2001) An introduction to statistical modeling of extreme values. Springer, London, p 621
Della-Marta PM, Haylock MR, Luterbacher J, Wanner H (2007) Doubled length of western European summer heat waves since 1880. J Geophys Res Atmos 112:D151103. doi:10.1029/2007JD008510
Frich P, Alexander LV, Della-Marta P, Gleason B, Haylock M, Klein Tank AMG, Peterson T (2002) Observed coherent changes in climatic extremes during the second half of the twentieth century. Clim Res 19:193–212
Hulme M (1996) Recent climatic change in the world’s drylands. Geophys Res Lett 23:61–64
IPCC (2001) The scientific basis, contribution of Working Group I to the Third Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, p 944
Maheras P, Flokas H, Tolika K, Anagnostopoulou Chr, Vafiadis M (2006) Circulation types and extreme temperature changes in Greece. Clim Res 30:161–174
Mills G (2006) Progress toward sustainable settlements: a role for urban climatology. Theor Appl Climatol 84:69–76
Radinović D. The basic concept of the methodologies of the Mediterranean cyclones and adverse weather phenomena studies. Proceedings of INM–WMO International Symposium on Mediterranean Cyclones and Hazardous Phenomena, Palma de Mallorca, Spain. April 14–17, 1997
Robinson PJ (2001) On the definition of a heat wave. J Appl Meteor 40:762–775
Varfi MS, Karacostas TS, Makrogiannis TJ, Flocas AA (2009) Characteristics of the extreme warm and cold days over Greece. Adv Geosci 20:45–50. doi:10.5194/adgeo-20-45-2009
Acknowledgments
The authors would like to acknowledge to the Hydrometeorological Service of Serbia and the Meteorological Service of Thailand for providing necessary data. This research was partially supported by the Ministry of Science of Serbia. We gratefully acknowledge Mr. D. Bulatović for technical preparation of the figures.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Appendix
Appendix
Definition of symbols used in Tables 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, and 9
Symbol | Definition |
A | Interval of temperature variation (absolute amplitude) |
a 1 | Measure of asymmetry |
a 2 | Measure of flatness |
C d | Number of successive days with temperatures −5°C below normal |
C p | Number of periods with 5 or more successive days with temperatures −5°C below normal |
D a | Number of days with temperatures above normal |
D b | Number of days with temperatures below normal |
D Ma | Number of days with temperature well-above normal |
D Mb | Number of days with temperature well-below normal |
H d | Number of successive days with temperatures 5°C above normal |
H p | Number of periods with 5 or more successive days with temperatures 5°C above normal |
M o | Mode |
M e | Median |
\( \bar{T} \) | Arithmetic mean of maximum daily temperature |
T m | Minimum value of maximum daily temperature |
T M | Maximum value of maximum daily temperature |
V | Coefficient of variation |
σ | Standard deviation |
σ2 | Variance |
τa | Above-normal temperature threshold |
τb | Below-normal temperature threshold |
τMa | Well-above normal temperature threshold |
τMb | Well-below normal temperature threshold. |
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Radinović, D., Ćurić, M. Criteria for heat and cold wave duration indexes. Theor Appl Climatol 107, 505–510 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0495-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-011-0495-8