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An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India—a historical perspective 1889–2008

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Abstract

Mann–Kendall non-parametric test was employed for observational trend detection of monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation of five meteorological subdivisions of Central Northeast India (CNE India) for different 30-year normal periods (NP) viz. 1889–1918 (NP1), 1919–1948 (NP2), 1949–1978 (NP3) and 1979–2008 (NP4). The trends of maximum and minimum temperatures were also investigated. The slopes of the trend lines were determined using the method of least square linear fitting. An application of Morelet wavelet analysis was done with monthly rainfall during June–September, total rainfall during monsoon season and annual rainfall to know the periodicity and to test the significance of periodicity using the power spectrum method. The inferences figure out from the analyses will be helpful to the policy managers, planners and agricultural scientists to work out irrigation and water management options under various possible climatic eventualities for the region. The long-term (1889–2008) mean annual rainfall of CNE India is 1,195.1 mm with a standard deviation of 134.1 mm and coefficient of variation of 11%. There is a significant decreasing trend of 4.6 mm/year for Jharkhand and 3.2 mm/day for CNE India. Since rice crop is the important kharif crop (May–October) in this region, the decreasing trend of rainfall during the month of July may delay/affect the transplanting/vegetative phase of the crop, and assured irrigation is very much needed to tackle the drought situation. During the month of December, all the meteorological subdivisions except Jharkhand show a significant decreasing trend of rainfall during recent normal period NP4. The decrease of rainfall during December may hamper sowing of wheat, which is the important rabi crop (November–March) in most parts of this region. Maximum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during monsoon season and 0.014°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season during the period 1914–2003. The annual maximum temperature also shows significant increasing trend of 0.008°C/year (at 0.01 level) during the same period. Minimum temperature shows significant rising trend of 0.012°C/year (at 0.01 level) during post-monsoon season and significant falling trend of 0.002°C/year (at 0.05 level) during monsoon season. A significant 4–8 years peak periodicity band has been noticed during September over Western UP, and 30–34 years periodicity has been observed during July over Bihar subdivision. However, as far as CNE India is concerned, no significant periodicity has been noticed in any of the time series.

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Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the Indian Council of Agricultural Research for providing study leave to the first author to conduct this study and are also thankful to the head of the Department of Atmospheric Sciences, CUSAT for providing necessary computing facility. We are also thankful to Mr. Rajesh, Consultant, PRITHVI High Performance Computing System, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune for his help in doing wavelet analysis and its interpretation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Division of Crop Research, ICAR Parisar, ICAR Research Complex for Eastern Region, Bihar Veterinary College P.O., Patna, 800 014,, Bihar, India

    N. Subash

  2. National Rainfed Area Authority, NASC Complex, Dev Prakash Shastri Marg, Pusa, New Delhi, 110012, India

    A. K. Sikka

  3. Department of Atmospheric Sciences, School of Marine Sciences, Cochin University of Science and Technology, Fine Arts Avenue, Cochin, 682 016,, Kerala, India

    H. S. Ram Mohan

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  1. N. Subash
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Subash, N., Sikka, A.K. & Ram Mohan, H.S. An investigation into observational characteristics of rainfall and temperature in Central Northeast India—a historical perspective 1889–2008. Theor Appl Climatol 103, 305–319 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0299-2

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