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A double-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the Eastern Mediterranean region

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Abstract

A double-resolution regional experiment on hydrodynamic simulation of climate over the eastern Mediterranean (EM) region was performed using an International Center for Theoretical Physics, Trieste RegCM3 model. The RegCM3 was driven from the lateral boundaries by the data from the ECHAM5/MPI-OM global climate simulation performed at the MPI-M, Hamburg and based on the A1B IPCC scenario of greenhouse gases emission. Two simulation runs for the time period 1960-2060, employing spatial resolutions of 50 km/14 L and 25 km/18 L, are realized. Time variations of the differences in the space distributions of simulated climate parameters are analyzed to evaluate the role of smaller scale effects. Both least-square linear and non-linear trends of several characteristics of the EM climate are evaluated in the study. One of the key findings with regard to linear trends is a notable and statistically significant precipitation drop over the near coastal EM zone during December-February and September-November. Statistically significant positive air temperature trends are projected over the entire EM region during the four seasons. Also projected are increases in air temperature extremes and the relative contribution of convective processes in the Southern Mediterranean coastal zone (ECM) region. A notable sensitivity of projected larger-scale climate change signals to smaller-scale effects is also demonstrated.

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Acknowledgments

The helpful comments by reviewers are acknowledged with gratitude. The research was supported by the German-Israeli research grant (GLOWA, Jordan River) through the Israeli Ministry of Science and Technology and the German Bundesministerium fuer Bildung und Forschung (BMBF), a research grant from the Water Authority of Israel, as well as by the European Commission’s Sixth Framework Programme, Priority 1.1.6.3 Global Change and Ecosystems (CIRCE), Contract no.:036961. P. Kunin actively participated in planning and realization of a first stage of the experiment. We are grateful to Filippo Giorgi, Xunqiang Bi and Sara Rauscher of the Physics of Weather and Climate (PWC) Section of the Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP), Trieste for providing expertise on using RegCM3 as well as the driving data from ECHAM5 climate change simulation experiment at the MPI-M, Hamburg. A Matlab code by Simone Fatichi has been used for performing Mann-Kendall significance test.

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  1. Department of Geophysics and Planetary Sciences, Raymond and Beverly Sackler Faculty of Exact Sciences, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel

    S. O. Krichak, J. S. Breitgand, R. Samuels & P. Alpert

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  1. S. O. Krichak
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  2. J. S. Breitgand
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  3. R. Samuels
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  4. P. Alpert
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Correspondence to S. O. Krichak.

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Krichak, S.O., Breitgand, J.S., Samuels, R. et al. A double-resolution transient RCM climate change simulation experiment for near-coastal eastern zone of the Eastern Mediterranean region. Theor Appl Climatol 103, 167–195 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-010-0279-6

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