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Probabilistic model of maximum precipitation depths for Kraków (southern Poland, 1886-2002)

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Abstract

This study was designed to empirically determine what relationships existed between three characteristics of precipitation: maximum depth, duration, and probability of exceedance. Annual maximum series for intervals of between one and 120 h were identified using the 1886-2002 pluviographic record from Kraków. The Gumbel distribution was selected from a group of four of the most popular theoretical maximum value distributions and identified as the optimum solution. Its parameters were determined. Confidence intervals for quantiles were obtained using the bootstrap method. Formulae were derived for the relationships between the Gumbel distribution parameters, i.e., the α location and β scale, depending on precipitation duration. These take the form of a polynomial of the second degree. The model developed was subjected to a two-step validation with a positive result.

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Acknowledgements

I am deeply grateful to anonymous reviewers for any comments that contribute to the improvement of the paper. The English translation of the paper owes much to the translation skills of Mr. Paweł Pilch and to the proofreading skills of Dr. Martin Cahn.

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  1. Department of Climatology, Jagiellonian University, ul. Gronostajowa 7, 30-387, Kraków, Poland

    R. Twardosz

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  1. R. Twardosz
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Correspondence to R. Twardosz.

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Twardosz, R. Probabilistic model of maximum precipitation depths for Kraków (southern Poland, 1886-2002). Theor Appl Climatol 98, 37–45 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0087-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-008-0087-4

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