Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
Meteorology and Atmospheric Physics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Most of the trend analysis that has been conducted has not considered the existence of a change point in the time series analysis. If these occurred, then the trend analysis will not be able to detect an obvious increasing or decreasing trend over certain parts of the time series. Furthermore, the lack of discussion on the possible factors that influenced either the decreasing or the increasing trend in the series needs to be addressed in any trend analysis. Hence, this study proposes to investigate the trends, and change point detection of mean, maximum and minimum temperature series, both annually and seasonally in Peninsular Malaysia and determine the possible factors that could contribute to the significance trends. In this study, Pettitt and sequential Mann–Kendall (SQ–MK) tests were used to examine the occurrence of any abrupt climate changes in the independent series. The analyses of the abrupt changes in temperature series suggested that most of the change points in Peninsular Malaysia were detected during the years 1996, 1997 and 1998. These detection points captured by Pettitt and SQ–MK tests are possibly related to climatic factors, such as El Niño and La Niña events. The findings also showed that the majority of the significant change points that exist in the series are related to the significant trend of the stations. Significant increasing trends of annual and seasonal mean, maximum and minimum temperatures in Peninsular Malaysia were found with a range of 2–5 °C/100 years during the last 32 years. It was observed that the magnitudes of the increasing trend in minimum temperatures were larger than the maximum temperatures for most of the studied stations, particularly at the urban stations. These increases are suspected to be linked with the effect of urban heat island other than El Niño event.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Alexandersson H (1986) A homogeneity test applied to precipitation data. J Climatol 6:661–675

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Alexandersson H, Moberg A (1997) Homogenization of Swedish temperatura data. Part I: homogeneity test for linear. Int J Climatol 17:25–34

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Almazroui M, Hasanean HM, Al-Khalaf AK, Abdel Basset H (2013) Detecting climate change signals in Saudi Arabia using mean annual surface air temperatures. Theor Appl Climatol 113:585–598. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0812-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Amirabadizadeh M, Huang YF, Lee TS (2015) Recent trends in temperature and precipitation in the Langat River Basin, Malaysia. Adv Meteorol. doi:10.1155/2015/579437

    Google Scholar 

  • Beule L, Lanhenke JF, Tantanee S (2016) Trends in temperature in Thailand from 1964 to 2013. Asia Pac J Sci Technol 21(4):6–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Capparelli V, Franzke C, Vecchio A, Freeman MP, Watkins NW, Carbone V (2013) A spatiotemporal analysis of US station temperature trends over the last century. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:1–8. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50551

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cayan DR, Douglas AV (1984) Urban influence on surface temperature in the southwestern United States during recent decades. J Clim Appl Meteorol 23:1520–1530. doi:10.1175/1520-0450

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Choudhury BU, Das A, Ngachan SV, Slong A, Bordoloi LJ, Chowdhury P (2012) Trend analysis of long term weather variables in mid altitude Meghalaya, North-East India. J Agric Phys 12(1):12–22

    Google Scholar 

  • Deka RL, Mahanta C, Pathak H, Nath KK, Das S (2013) Trends and fluctuations of rainfall regime in the Brahmaputra and Barak basins of Assam, India. Theor Appl Climatol 114:61–71. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0820-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Deni SM, Suhaila J, Wan Zin WZ, Jemain AA (2010) Spatial trends of dry spells over Peninsular Malaysia during monsoon seasons. Theor Appl Climatol 99:357–371. doi:10.1007/s00704-0147-4.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Douglas EM, Vogel RM, Kroll CN (2000) Trends in floods and low flows in the United States: impact of spatial correlation. J Hydrol 240:90–105

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Feng X, Zhang G, Yin X (2011) Hydrological responses to climate change in Nenjian River Basin, Northeastern China. Water Resour Manage 25:677–689. doi:10.1007/s11269-010-9720-y

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fischer T, Gemmer M, Liu L, Su B (2012) Change-points in climate extremes in the Zhujiang River Basin, South China, 1961–2007. Clim Change 110:783–799

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • ECHO Daily Flash (2016) Malaysia-drought European Civil Protection and Humanitarian Aid Operations. http://reliefweb.int/report/malaysia. Accessed 20 March 2016

  • Fujibe F (2009) Detection of urban warming in recent temperature trends in Japan. Int J Climatol 29:1811–1822. doi:10.1002/joc.1822

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fujibe F (2011) Urban warming in Japanese cities and its relation to climate change monitoring. Int J Climatol 31:162–173. doi:10.1002/joc.2142

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Golden Gate Weather Services (2017) El Nino and La Nina years and intensities. Based on Oceanic Nino Index (ONI). http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.html. Accessed 6 March 2017

  • Griffiths GM, Chambers LE, Haylock MR, Manton MJ, Nicholls N, Baek H-J, Choi Y, Della-Marta PM, Gosai A, Iga N, Lata R, Laurent V, Maitrepierre L, Nakamigawa H, Ouprasitwong N, Solofa D, Tahani L, Thuy DT, Tibig L, Trewin B, Vediapan K, Zhai P (2005) Change in mean temperature as a predictor of extreme temperature change in the Asia-Pacific region. Int J Climatol 25:1301–1330. doi:10.1002/joc.1194

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hamdi R (2010) Estimating urban heat island effects on the temperature series of Uccle (Brussels, Belgium) using remote sensing data and a land surface scheme. Remote Sens 2:2773–2784. doi:10.3390/rs2122773

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2001) Climate change 2001: the scientific basis. In: Houghton JT, Ding Y, Griggs DJ, Noguer M, van der Linden PJ, Dai X, Maskell K, Johnson CA (eds) Contribution of working group I to the third assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2013) Climate change 2013: the physical science basis. In: Stocker TF, Qin D, Plattner GK, Tingnor M, Allen SK, Boshung J, Nauels A, Xia Y, Bex V, Midgley PM (eds) Contribution of working group I to the fifth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, New York

    Google Scholar 

  • Jain SK, Kumar V, Saharia M (2013) Analysis of rainfall and temperature trends in Northeast India. Int J Climatol 33:968–978. doi:10.1002/joc.3483

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Jeganathan A, Andimuthu R (2013) Temperature trends of Chennai City, India. Theor Appl Climatol 111:417–425. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0646-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Juneng L, Tangang FT (2005) Evolution of ENSO-related rainfall anomalies in Southeast Asia región and its relationship with atmosphere-ocean variations in Indo-Pacific sector. Clim Dynam 25:337–350. doi:10.1007/s00382-005-0031-6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Karabulut M, Gurbuz M, Korkmaz H (2008) Precipitation and temperature trend analyses in Samsun. J Int Environ Appl Sci 3(5):399–408

    Google Scholar 

  • Koutsoyiannis D (2006) Nonstationarity versus scaling in hydrology. J Hydrol 324:239–254

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Li D, Xie H, Xiong L (2014) Temporal change analysis based on data characteristics and nonparametric test. Water Resour Manage 28:227–240. doi:10.1007/s11269-013-0481-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu X, Dai X, Zhong Y, Li J, Wang P (2013) Analysis of changes in the relationship between precipitation and streamflow in the Yiluo River, China. Theor Appl Climatol 114:183–191. doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0833-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Masud MB, Soni P, Shrestha S, Tripathi NK (2016) Changes in climate extremes over North Thailand, 1960–2099. J Climatol. doi:10.1155/2016/4289454

    Google Scholar 

  • Michaels PJ, Balling RC Jr, Vose RS, Knappenberger PC (1998) Analysis of trends in the variability of daily and monthly historical temperature measurements. Clim Res 10:27–33

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mohan M, Kikegawa Y, Gurjar BR, Bhati S, Kandya A, Ogawa K (2012) Urban heat island assessment for a tropical urban airshed in India. Atmos Clim Sci 2:127–138

    Google Scholar 

  • Mohsin T, Gough WA (2010) Trend analysis of long-term temperature time series in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA). Theor Appl Climatol 101:311–327. doi:10.1007/s00704-009-0214-x

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nguyen D-Q, Renwick J, McGregor J (2014) Variations of surface temperature and rainfall in Vietnam from 1971 to 2000. Int J Climatol 34:249–264. doi:10.1002/joc.3684

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Othman M, Ashaari ZH, Muharam FM, Sulaiman WNA, Hamisan H, Mohamad ND, Othman NH (2016) Assessment of drought impacts on vegetation health: a case study in Kedah. IOP Conf Series Earth Environ Sci 37:012072. doi:10.1088/1755-1315/37/1/012072

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Pettitt AN (1979) A non-parametric approach in the change point problem. Appl Stat 28(2):126–135

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sajjad SH, Batool R, Talha Qadri SM, Shirazi SA, Shakrullah K (2015) The long term variability in minimum and maximum temperature trends and heat island of Lahore City, Pakistan. Sci Int (Lahore) 27(2):1321–1325

    Google Scholar 

  • Salas JD, Deuller JW, Yevjevich V, Lane WL (1980) Applied modeling of hydrologic time series. Water Resource Publications, Littleton

    Google Scholar 

  • Salleh SA, Abd Latif Z, Wan Mohd WMN, Chan A (2013) Factors contributing to the formation of an urban heat island in Putrajaya, Malaysia. Proc Soc Behav Sci 105:840–850

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schaefer D, Domroes M (2009) Recent climate change in Japan-spatial and temporal characteristics of trends of temperature. Clim Past 5:13–19

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Shaharuddin A, Noorazuan MH, Takeuchi W, Noraziah A (2014) The effects of urban heat islands on human confort: a case of Klang Valley Malaysia. Global J Adv Pure Appl Sci 2:1–8

    Google Scholar 

  • Southwest Climate Change Network (2008) Urban heat island: raising city temperatures. http://www.southwestclimatechange.org/impacts/people

  • Suhaila J, Deni SM, Jemain AA (2008) Detecting inhomogeneity of rainfall series in Peninsular Malaysia. Asia Pac J Atmos Sci 44(4):369–380

    Google Scholar 

  • Suhaila J, Deni SM, Wan Zin WZ, Jemain AA (2010) Spatial patterns and trends of daily rainfall regime in Peninsular Malaysia during the Southwest and Northeast Monsoons: 1975–2004. Meteorol Atmos Phys 110:1–18

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tan ML, Ibrahim AL, Yusop Z, Duan Z, Ling L (2015) Impacts of land-use and climate variability on hydrological components in the Johor River Basin, Malaysia. Hydrol Sci J 60(5):873–889. doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.967246

    Google Scholar 

  • Tangang FT, Juneng L, Ahmad S (2007) Trend and interannual variability of temperature in Malaysia: 1961–2002. Theor Appl Climatol 89:127–141. doi:10.1007/s00704-006-0263-3

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Tangang FT, Juneng L, Salimun E, Sei KM, Le LJ, Muhamad H (2012) Climate change and variability over Malaysia: gaps in science and research information. Sains Malays 41(11):1355–1366

    Google Scholar 

  • Villarini G, Serinaldi F, Smith JA, Krajewski WF (2009) On the stationarity of annual flood peaks in the continental United States during the 20th century. Water Resour Res 45:W08417. doi:10.1029/2008WR007645

    Google Scholar 

  • Von Storch H (1995) Misuses of statistical analysis in climate research. In: von Storch H, Navarra A (eds) Analysis of climate variability: applications of statistical techniques. Springer, Berlin, pp 11–26

    Chapter  Google Scholar 

  • Wai NM, Camerlengo A, Abdul Wahab AK (2005) A study of global warming in Malaysia. J Teknol 42(F):1–10

    Google Scholar 

  • Wan Zin WZ, Suhaila J, Deni SM, Jemain AA (2010) Recent changes in extreme rainfall events in Peninsular Malaysia: 1971–2005. Theor Appl Climatol 99:303–314. doi:10.1007/s00704-008-0044-2

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wang S, Zhang X (2012) Long-term trend analysis for temperature in the Jinsha River Basin in China. Theor Appl Climatol 109:591–603. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0603-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wijngaard JB, Klein Tank AMG, Konnen GP (2003) Homogeneity of 20th century Europen daily temperature and precipitation series. Int J Climatol 23:679–692

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu ZX, Takeuchi K, Ishidaira H (2003) Monotonic trend and step changes in Japanese precipitation. J Hydrol 279:144–150

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Xu Y, Qin Z, Shen Y (2012) Study on the estimation of near surface air temperature from MODIS data by statistical methods. Int J Remote 33:7629–7643

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B, Cavadias G (2002) The influence of autocorrelation on the ability to detect trend in hydrological series. Hydrol Process 16:1807–1829

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yue S, Pilon P, Phinney B (2003) Canadian streamflow trend detection: impacts of serial and cross-correlation. Hydrol Sci J 48(1):51–63

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yusof F, Hui Mean F, Suhaila J, Yusop Z (2013) Characterisation of drought properties with bivariate copula analysis. Water Resour Manage 27:4183–4207. doi:10.1007/s11269-013-0402-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yusuf YA, Pradhan B, Idrees MO (2014) Spatio-temporal assessment of urban heat island effects in Kuala Lumpur Metropolitan City using Landsat Images. J Indian Soc Remote Sens 42(4):829–837. doi:10.1007/s12524-013-0342-8

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zarenistanak M, Dhorde AG, Kripalani RH (2014) Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal precipitation and temperature series over southwest Iran. J Earth Syst Sci 123(2):281–295

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang Q, Xu CY, Zhang Z (2009) Observed changes of drought/wetness episodes in the Pearl River Basin, China, using the standardized precipitation index and aridity index. Theor Appl Climatol 98:89–99. doi:10.1007/s00704-008-0095-4

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang L, Ren GY, Ren YY, Zhang AY, Chu ZY, Zhou YQ (2014) Effect of data homogenization on estímate of temperature trend: a case of Huairou station in Beijing Municipality. Theor Appl Climatol 115:365–373. doi:10.1007/s00704-013-0894-0

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are indebted to the anonymous reviewers for comments that have greatly improved the paper. We would like to extend our sincere gratitude to the Ministry of Education Malaysia and Universiti Teknologi Malaysia for the financial support given to this work under the post doctoral scheme and Research Grant FRGS 4F845.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Mathematical Sciences, Faculty of Science, Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru, Malaysia

    Jamaludin Suhaila

  2. Centre for Environmental Sustainability and Water Security (IPASA), Universiti Teknologi Malaysia, 81310, Johor Bahru, Malaysia

    Zulkifli Yusop

Authors
  1. Jamaludin Suhaila
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Zulkifli Yusop
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Jamaludin Suhaila.

Additional information

Responsible Editor: J. T. Fasullo.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Suhaila, J., Yusop, Z. Trend analysis and change point detection of annual and seasonal temperature series in Peninsular Malaysia. Meteorol Atmos Phys 130, 565–581 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0537-6

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-017-0537-6

Search

Navigation