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Prediction of tropical cyclogenesis in North Indian Ocean using Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) winds

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Abstract

India’s polar orbiting satellite Oceansat-2 was launched by Indian Space Research Organisation on 23 September 2009 for applications pertaining to ocean studies and meteorology. The wind scatterometer aboard the Oceansat-2 satellite (OSCAT) covers 90 % of the global ocean within a day. In the present study, the OSCAT-derived wind fields are used to predict the genesis of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean using a new technique based on data mining. The technique is based on the premise that there is some degree of similarity in low-level wind circulation among developing systems, which can be utilized to distinguish them from non-developing systems. This similarity of wind patterns has been measured quantitatively by computing the “matching index” between the given wind pattern and the wind signatures of developing systems available from the past observations. The algorithm is used to predict the tropical cyclogenesis of cyclones formed during the period 2009–11 in the North Indian Ocean. All the tropical disturbances that developed into tropical storms during the above period (2009–11), viz. PHYAN, WARD, LAILA, BANDU, PHET, GIRI, JAL, KEILA, FOUR, FIVE and THANE were predicted using the proposed method. The mean prediction lead time of the technique was 63 h. Probability of detection of the technique was 100 %, while the false alarm ratio was 2 %.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are grateful to Remote Sensing Systems for providing the SSM/I satellite data at www.remss.com. The authors also acknowledges the anonymous reviewers for their valuable comments and suggestions for improving the quality of the manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Group, EPSA, Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad, 380015, India

    Neeru Jaiswal, C. M. Kishtawal & P. K. Pal

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  1. Neeru Jaiswal
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  2. C. M. Kishtawal
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  3. P. K. Pal
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Correspondence to Neeru Jaiswal.

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Responsible editor: X.-Y. Huang.

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Jaiswal, N., Kishtawal, C.M. & Pal, P.K. Prediction of tropical cyclogenesis in North Indian Ocean using Oceansat-2 scatterometer (OSCAT) winds. Meteorol Atmos Phys 119, 137–149 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-012-0230-8

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-012-0230-8

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