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Impact of vortex-removal from environmental flow in cyclone track prediction using Lagrangian advection model

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Abstract

In the present study, a new approach is discussed to find out the residual steering flow from the high-resolution global Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model-forecasted wind fields, which have been used in the Lagrangian advection model to determine the track of tropical cyclones formed in the Indian Ocean. The Lagrangian advection model is newly developed model and conceptually closer to the dynamical models, which utilizes environmental steering flow and the effect due to earth’s rotation (the beta-effect) to determine the motion of cyclone. In this approach, the effect of environmental flow on the cyclone track is examined by removing the existing cyclone vortex from the steering flow which is determined by potential vorticity approach. A new approach based on vortex pattern matching has been used to identify the cyclone vortex and to remove it from the steering flow. The tracks of five tropical cyclones (viz., Nargis, Khai_Muk, Nisha, Aila and Phyan) which were formed in the North Indian basin during the period 2008–2009 have been generated by the Lagrangian advection model using the proposed scheme. The position errors were computed with respect to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) best track analysis positions and compared with that of without-vortex-removal scheme. The results show that the mean track errors for five cyclones are reduced by 6–35 % for 12–72 h forecast in case of vortex-removal scheme as compared to the without-vortex-removal scheme.

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Acknowledgments

The authors are thankful to the Director, Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad, and the Deputy Director of SAC-ISRO. Acknowledgement also goes to the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (http://nomads.ncdc.noaa.gov/data.php) for providing the valuable data for model and to Joint Typhoon Warning Center (http://www.usno.navy.mil/NOOC/nmfc-ph/RSS/jtwc/best_tracks) for providing the observed track of cyclones.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Sciences Division, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Group, Earth, Ocean, Atmosphere, Planetary Sciences and Applications Area, Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad, 380015, India

    Sanjeev Kumar Singh, C. M. Kishtawal, Neeru Jaiswal, Randhir Singh & P. K. Pal

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  1. Sanjeev Kumar Singh
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  2. C. M. Kishtawal
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  3. Neeru Jaiswal
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  4. Randhir Singh
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  5. P. K. Pal
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Correspondence to Sanjeev Kumar Singh.

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Responsible editor: M. Kaplan.

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Singh, S.K., Kishtawal, C.M., Jaiswal, N. et al. Impact of vortex-removal from environmental flow in cyclone track prediction using Lagrangian advection model. Meteorol Atmos Phys 117, 103–120 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-012-0198-4

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-012-0198-4

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