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Application of trembling-hand perfect equilibrium to Nash nonlinear Grey Bernoulli model: an example of BRIC’s GDP forecasting

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Abstract

The traditional Grey forecasting model, GM(1,1), is characterized by its linear property. The Nash nonlinear Grey Bernoulli model further increases the forecasting accuracy by considering two governing parameters in the model. Because of the multiple Nash solutions, this study uses trembling-hand perfect equilibrium to refine the NNGBM and then obtains higher forecasting accuracy. This study mathematically proves that the proposed model is feasible and efficient. Finally, NNGBM with trembling-hand perfect equilibrium is used to forecast GDP of four fast-growing countries, Brazil, Russia, India and China, which are abbreviated as BRIC. The results show that BRIC’s GDP is keeping on growing.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of International Business, Cheng Shiu University, Kaohsiung, Taiwan

    Pei-Han Hsin

  2. Department of Industrial Management, I-Shou University, No. 1, Sec. 1, Syuecheng Rd., Kaohsiung, 84001, Taiwan

    Chun-I Chen

Authors
  1. Pei-Han Hsin
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  2. Chun-I Chen
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Correspondence to Chun-I Chen.

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Hsin, PH., Chen, CI. Application of trembling-hand perfect equilibrium to Nash nonlinear Grey Bernoulli model: an example of BRIC’s GDP forecasting. Neural Comput & Applic 28 (Suppl 1), 269–274 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-016-2340-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00521-016-2340-6

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