Skip to main content

Advertisement

SpringerLink
Log in

Potential effect of atmospheric warming on grapevine phenology and post-harvest heat accumulation across a range of climates

  • Original Paper
  • Published:
International Journal of Biometeorology Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Carbohydrates are accumulated within the perennial structure of grapevines when their production exceeds the requirements of reproduction and growth. The period between harvest and leaf-fall (the post-harvest period) is a key period for carbohydrate accumulation in relatively warmer grape-growing regions. The level of carbohydrate reserves available for utilisation in the following season has an important effect on canopy growth and yield potential and is therefore an important consideration in vineyard management. In a warming climate, the post-harvest period is lengthening and becoming warmer, evidenced through studies in wine regions worldwide that have correlated recent air temperature increases with changing grapevine phenology. Budbreak, flowering, veraison, and harvest have all been observed to be occurring earlier than in previous decades. Additionally, the final stage of the grapevine phenological cycle, leaf-fall, occurs later. This study explored the potential for increased post-harvest carbohydrate accumulation by modelling heat accumulation following harvest dates for the recent climate (1975–2004) and two warmer climate projections with mean temperature anomalies of +1.26 and +2.61 °C. Summaries of post-harvest heat accumulation between harvest and leaf-fall were produced for each of Australia’s Geographical Indications (wine regions) to provide comparisons from the base temperatures to projected warmer conditions across a range of climates. The results indicate that for warmer conditions, all regions observe earlier occurring budbreak and harvest as well as increasing post-harvest growing degree days accumulation before leaf-fall. The level of increase varies depending upon starting climatic condition, with cooler regions experiencing the greatest change.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Anderson JD, Jones GV, Tait A, Hall A, Trought MCT (2012) Analysis of viticulture region climate structure and suitability in New Zealand. J Int Sci Vigne Vin 46:149–165

    Google Scholar 

  • Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) (2013) Maps–recent and past conditions: temperature http://www.bom.gov.au/jsp/awap/temp/ Accessed 10 April 2013

  • Barnuud N, Zerihun A, Mpelasoka F, Gibberd M, Bates B (2014) Responses of grape berry anthocyanin and titratable acidity to the projected climate change across the Western Australian wine regions. Int J Biomet 58:1279–1293

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Betts RA, Collins M, Hemming DL, Jones CD, Lowe JA, Sanderson MG (2011) When could global warming reach 4°C? Phil Trans R Soc A 369:67–84

  • Bennett J, Javis P, Creasy GL, Trought MCT (2005) Influence of defoliation on overwintering carbohydrate reserves, return bloom, and yield of mature Chardonnay grapevines. Am J Enol Vitic 56:386–393

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Caffarra A, Eccel E (2011) Projecting the impacts of climate change on the phenology of grapevine in a mountain area. Aust J Grape Wine Res 17:52–61

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Coombe BG, Dry PR (2004) Viticulture: volume 2, practices, 2nd edn. Winetitles, Adelaide

    Google Scholar 

  • CSIRO (1996) OzClim: A climate scenario generator and impacts package for Australia http://www.csiro.au/ozclim Accessed 10 April 2013

  • DeLong KL, Quinn TM, Taylor FW, Lin K, Shen CC (2012) Sea surface temperature variability in the southwest tropical Pacific since AD 1649. Nat Clim Chang 2:799–804

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Fraga H, Malheiro AC, Moutinho-Pereira J, Jones GV, Alves F, Pinto JG, Santos JA (2014) Very high resolution bioclimatic zoning of Portuguese wine regions: present and future scenarios. Reg Environ Chang 14:295–306

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fraga H, Malheiro AC, Moutinho-Pereira J, Santos JA (2013) Future scenarios for viticultural zoning in Europe: ensemble projections and uncertainties. Int J Biometeorol 57:909–925

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Gladstones J (1992) Viticulture and environment. Winetitles, Adelaide

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon HB, O’Farrell SP, Collier MA, Dix MR, Rotstayn LD, Kowalczyk EA, Hirst AC, Watterson IG (2010) The CSIRO Mk3.5 Climate Model [Electronic publication]. Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) Research technical report no. 021. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale

    Google Scholar 

  • Gordon HB, Rotstayn LD, McGregor JL, Dix MR, Kowalczyk EA, O’Farrell SP, Waterman LJ, Hirst AC, Wilson SG, Collier MA, Watterson IG, Elliott TI (2002) The CSIRO Mk3 climate system model [Electronic publication]. CSIRO Atmospheric Research Technical Paper No. 60. CSIRO Atmospheric Research, Aspendale

    Google Scholar 

  • Hall A, Jones GV (2009) Effect of potential atmospheric warming on temperature–based indices describing Australian winegrape growing conditions. Aust J Grape Wine Res 15:97–119

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hall A, Jones GV (2010) Spatial analysis of climate in winegrape–growing regions in Australia. Aust J Grape Wine Res 16:389–404

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Holzapfel BP, Smith JP, Mandel RM, Keller M (2006) Manipulating the postharvest period and its impact on vine productivity of Semillon grapevines. Am J Enol Vitic 57:148–157

    Google Scholar 

  • Holzapfel BP, Smith JP, Field SK, Hardie WJ (2010) Dynamics of carbohydrate reserves in cultivated grapevines. Hort Rev 36:143–211

    Google Scholar 

  • Holzapfel BP, Smith JP (2012) Developmental stage and climatic factors impact more on carbohydrate reserve dynamics of Shiraz than cultural practice. Am J Enol Vitic 63:333–342

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • IPCC (2007) Summary for policymakers. In: Solomon S, Qin D, Manning M, Chen Z, Marquis M, Averyt KB, Tignor M, Miller HL (eds) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis contribution of Working Group I to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones GV (2008) Climate change: observations, projections, and general implications for viticulture and wine production. XII Congresso Brasileiro de Viticultura e Enologia–Anais, Proceedings, pp. 55–66

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones GV, Davis RE (2000) Climate influences on grapevine phenology, grape composition, and wine production and quality for Bordeaux, France. Am J Enol Vitic 51:249–261

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones GV, Snead N, Nelson P (2004) Geology and wine 8. Modeling viticultural landscapes: a GIS analysis of the terroir potential in the Umpqua Valley of Oregon. Geosci Can 31:167–178

    Google Scholar 

  • Jones GV, Duff A, Hall A, Myers J (2010) Spatial analysis of climate in winegrape growing regions in the western United States. Am J Enol Vitic 61:313–326

    Google Scholar 

  • Moncur MW, Rattigan K, Mackenzie DH, McIntyre GN (1989) Base temperatures for budbreak and leaf appearance of grapevines. Am J Enol Vitic 40:21–26

    Google Scholar 

  • Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emori S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA, Mitchell JFB, Nakicenovic N, Riahi K, Smith SJ, Stouffer RJ, Thomson AM, Weyant JP, Wilbanks TJ (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nature 463:747–756

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Mullins MG, Bouquet A, Williams LE (1992) Biology of the grapevine. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge

    Google Scholar 

  • Peters GP, Andrew RM, Boden T, Canadell JG, Ciais P, Le Quéré C, Marland G, Raupach MR, Wilson C (2012) The challenge to keep global warming below 2 °C. Nat Clim Chang 3:4–6

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Petrie PR, Sadras VO (2008) Advancement of grapevine maturity in Australia between 1993 and 2006: putative causes, magnitude of trends and viticultural consequences. Aust J Grape Wine Res 14:33–45

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ramirez-Villegas J, Jarvis A (2010) Downscaling global circulation model outputs: the Delta method; decision and policy analysis working paper no 1. Policy Anal 1:1–18

    Google Scholar 

  • Reisinger A, Kitching RL, Chiew F, Hughes L, Newton PCD, Schuster SS, Tait A, Whetton P (2014) Australasia. In: Barros VR, Field CB, Dokken DJ, Mastrandrea MD, Mach KJ, Bilir TE, Chatterjee M, Ebi KL, Estrada YO, Genova RC, Girma B, Kissel ES, Levy AN, MacCracken S, Mastrandrea PR, White LL (eds) Climate change 2014: impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability. Part B: regional aspects. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp. 1371–1438

    Google Scholar 

  • Smith JP, Holzapfel BP (2009) Cumulative response of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L) to late season perturbation of carbohydrate reserve status. Am J Enol Vitic 60:461–470

    CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Scholefield PB, Neales TF, May P (1978) Carbon balance of the Sultana vine (Vitis vinifera L) and the effects of autumn defoliation by harvest–pruning. Aust J Plant Physiol 5:561–570

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Schultz HR (2000) Climate change and viticulture: a European perspective on climatology, carbon dioxide, and UV–B effects. Aust J Grape Wine Res 6:2–12

    Article  CAS  Google Scholar 

  • Urhausen S, Brienen S, Kapala A, Simmer C (2011) Climatic conditions and their impact on viticulture in the Upper Moselle region. Clim Chang 109:349–373

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • van Leeuwen C, Friant P, Chone X, Tregoat O, Koundouras S, Dubourdieu D (2004) Influence of climate, soil, and cultivar on terroir. Am J Enol Vitic 55:207–217

    Google Scholar 

  • Webb LB, Watterson I, Bhend J, Whetton PH, Barlow EWR (2013) Global climate analogues for winegrowing regions in future periods: projections of temperature and precipitation. Aust J Grape Wine Res 19:331–341

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webb LB, Whetton PH, Barlow EWR (2007) Modelled impact of future climate change on the phenology of winegrapes in Australia. Aust J Grape Wine Res 13:165–175

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Webb LB, Whetton PH, Barlow EWR (2011) Observed trends in winegrape maturity in Australia. Glob Chang Biol 17:2707–2719

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Williams LE (1996) Grape. In: Zamski E, Schaffer A (eds) Photoassimilate distribution in plants and crops: source–sink relationships. Marcel Dekker, New York, pp. 851–881

    Google Scholar 

  • Wine Australia (2008) Australian geographical indications: regions electronic resource. Wine Australia, Adelaide

    Google Scholar 

  • Wine Australia (2013) Wine Australia 2012–2013 annual report. Wine Australia Corporation, Adelaide

  • Wilson JE (1999) Terroir: the role of geology, climate, and culture in the making of French wines. University of California Press, Los Angeles

    Google Scholar 

  • Winkler AJ, Cook JA, Kliewer WM, Lider LA (1974) General viticulture. University of California Press, Los Angeles

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolfe DW, Schwartz MD, Lakso AN, Otsuki Y, Pool RM, Shaulis NJ (2005) Climate change and shifts in spring phenology of three horticultural woody perennials in northeastern USA. Int J Biomet 49:303–309

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgments

Adam Mathews was supported in this research project by an Endeavour Research Fellowship provided by the Australian Federal Government through the Department of Industry, Innovation Science, Research and Tertiary Education. Thank you to Jason Smith, who worked in conjunction with Bruno Holzapfel, to produce the carbohydrate accumulation data shown in Fig. 1. The authors appreciate ongoing support provided by Charles Sturt University’s Spatial Data Analysis Network (CSU-SPAN).

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute for Land Water and Society, Charles Sturt University, Albury, NSW, 2640, Australia

    Andrew Hall

  2. School of Environmental Sciences, Charles Sturt University, Albury, NSW, 2640, Australia

    Andrew Hall

  3. Department of Geography, Oklahoma State University, Stillwater, OK, 74078, USA

    Adam J. Mathews

  4. National Wine and Grape Industry Centre, NSW Department of Primary Industries, Wagga Wagga, NSW, 2678, Australia

    Bruno P. Holzapfel

Authors
  1. Andrew Hall
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Adam J. Mathews
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Bruno P. Holzapfel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Andrew Hall.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Hall, A., Mathews, A.J. & Holzapfel, B.P. Potential effect of atmospheric warming on grapevine phenology and post-harvest heat accumulation across a range of climates. Int J Biometeorol 60, 1405–1422 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1133-z

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-016-1133-z

Keywords

Search

Navigation