Abstract
The goal of this research is to transpose the unprecedented 2003 European excessive heat event to six Korean cities and to develop meteorological analogs for each. Since this heat episode is not a model but an actual event, we can use a plausible analog to assess the risk of increasing heat on these cities instead of an analog that is dependent on general circulation (GCM) modeling or the development of arbitrary scenarios. Initially, the 2003 summer meteorological conditions from Paris are characterized statistically and these characteristics are transferred to the Korean cites. Next, the new meteorological dataset for each Korean city is converted into a daily air mass calendar. We can then determine the frequency and character of “offensive” air masses in the Korean cities that are historically associated with elevated heat-related mortality. One unexpected result is the comparative severity of the very hot summer of 1994 in Korea, which actually eclipsed the 2003 analog. The persistence of the offensive air masses is considerably greater for the summer of 1994, as were dew point temperatures for a majority of the Korean cities. For all the Korean cities but one, the summer of 1994 is associated with more heat-related deaths than the analog summer, in some cases yielding a sixfold increase over deaths in an average summer. The Korean cities appear less sensitive to heat-related mortality problems during very hot summers than do large eastern and Midwestern US cities, possibly due to a lesser summer climate variation and efficient social services available during extreme heat episodes.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Ebi KL, Teisberg TJ, Kalkstein LS, Robinson L, Weiher LH (2004) Heat watch/warning systems save lives: estimated costs and benefits for Philadelphia 1995–1998. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1067–1074
Greene JS, Kalkstein LS (1996) Quantitative analysis of summer air masses in the eastern United States and an application to human mortality. Climate Res 7:43–53
Greene JS, Kalkstein LS, Mills D, Samenow J (2011) Performance of U.S. cities in reducing excess mortality from extreme heat events: 1975–2004. Weather Clim Soc 3:281–292
Harlan SL, Brazel AJ, Prashad L, Stefanov WL, Larson L (2006) Neighborhood microclimates and vulnerability to heat stress. Soc Sci Med 63:2847–2863
Hov, O, and co-authors (2013): Extreme Weather Events in Europe: preparing for climate change adaptation, Norweigan Meteorological Institute 138 pp
Kalkstein, LS (2009) Development and Implementation of Heat Health Warning Systems for Seoul, South Korea: Year 2. Final Report to KMA/NIMR 27pp. (http://www.as.miami.edu/geography/research/climatology/KMA_final_report_year2.pdf.
Kalkstein LS, Jamason PF, Greene JS, Libby J, Robinson L (1996) The Philadelphia hot weather-health watch/warning system: development and application, summer 1995. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77(7):1519–1528
Kalkstein LS, Greene JS, Mills D, Perrin A, Samenow J, Cohen J-C (2008a) Analog European heat waves for U.S. cities to analyze impacts on heat-related mortality. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 89:75–86
Kalkstein LS, Sheridan SC, Au YC (2008b) A new generation of heat/health warning systems for Seoul and other major Korean cities. Meteorol Technol Policy 1:62–68
Kalkstein LS, Greene JS, Mills D, Samenow J (2011) An evaluation of the progress in reducing heat-related human mortality in major U.S. cities. Nat Hazards 56:113–129
Kim HJH (2013) Changes in the association between summer temperature and mortality in Seoul, South Korea. Int J Biometeorol 57:535–544
Kim Y, Joh S (2006) A vulnerability study of the low-income elderly in the context of high temperature and mortality in Seoul, Korea. Sci Total Environ 371:82–88
Kim J, Lee D, Kysely J (2008) A synoptic and climatological comparison of record-breaking heat waves in Korea and Europe. Atmos 18(4):355–365
Kim J, Lee DG, Kysely J (2009) Characteristics of heat acclimatization for major Korean cities. Atmos 19(40):309–318
Koppe C, Kovats S, Jendritzky G, Menne B (2004) Heat-Waves: Risks and Responses. World Health Organization. Available: http://www.euro.who.int/document/e82629.pdf
Kyselý J, Kim J (2009) Mortality during heat waves in South Korea, 1991 to 2005: how exceptional was the 1994 heat wave? Climate Res 38:105–116
Larsen J (2006) Setting the Record Straight: More than 52,000 Europeans Died from Heat in Summer 2003. Plan B Updates, Earth Policy Institute, http://www.earth-policy.org/?/plan_b_updates/2006/update56/ .
Lee DG, Choi Y-J, Kim KY, Byon J-Y, Sheridan SC, Kalkstein LS (2010) Development of heat-health warning system based upon regional differences between climate and human health. Clim Chang Res 1(2):109–120
McGregor G, Bessemoulin P, Ebi K, Menne B (2010) Heat waves and health: guidance on warning system development. WMO, WHO, Geneva, 88pp
Medina-Ramon M, Schwartz J (2007) Temperature, temperature extremes, and mortality: a study of acclimatisation and effect modification in 50 US cities. Occup Environ Med 64:827–833
Meteo France 2006. Paris record temperatures. Unpublished document. Data provided by M. Schneider
Perera EM, Sanford T, White-Newsome JL, Kalkstein LS, Vanos JK, Weir K (2012) Heat in the heartland: 60 years of warming in the Midwest. Union of Concerned Scientists Publication Series Climate Change and Your Health, Cambridge, MA, 38pp
Robine JM, Cheung SL, Le Roy S, Van Oyen H, Griffiths C, Michel JP, Herrmann FR (2008) Death toll exceeded 70,000 in Europe during the summer of 2003. C R Biol 331(2):171–178
Schär C, Vidale PL, Lüthi D, Frei C, Häberli C, Liniger MA, Appenzeller C (2004) The role of increasing temperature variability in European summer heatwaves. Nature 427:332–336. doi:10.1038/nature02300
Shahmohamadi P, Che-Ani AI, Etessam I, Maulud KNA, Tawil NM (2011) Healthy environment: the need to mitigate urban heat island effects on human health. Proc Eng 20:61–70
Sheridan SC, Kalkstein LS (2004) Progress in heat watch-warning system technology. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 85:1931–1941
Sheridan SC, Kalkstein AJ, Kalkstein LS (2009) Trends of heat-related mortality in the United States: 1975–2004. Nat Hazards 50:149–160
Sheridan SC, Allen M, Lee CC, Kalkstein LS (2012) Future heat vulnerability in California. Part II: projecting future heat-related mortality. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-012-0437-1
Smoyer KE, Rainham DGC, Hewko (2000) Heat-stress-related mortality in five cities in Southern Ontario: 1980–1996. Int J Biometeorol 44(4):190–197
Son, Ji-Young; Lee, Jong-Tae; Anderson, G. Brooke, 2011: Vulnerability to temperature-related mortality in Seoul, Korea, Environmental Research Letters, 6(3) Article Number: 034027
Steadman RG (1984) A universal scale of apparent temperature. J Appl Meteorol 23:1674–1687
Steadman RG (2011) Shortcuts to Apparent Temperature. Personal communication, December 13, 2011
Valleron AJ, Mendil A (2004) Epidemiology and heat waves: analysis of the 2003 episode in France. C R Biol 327:125–141
Vandentorren S, Empereur-Bissonnet P (2005) Health Impact of the 2003 Heat Wave in France. In: Extreme Weather Events and Public Health Responses, Heidelberg: Springer, 306pp
Acknowledgments
This work was funded under a collaborative research agreement from the National Institute of Meteorological Research of the Korea Meteorological Administration. We greatly appreciate their support. The authors also warmly acknowledge the assistance of Dr. Scott Sheridan, Kent State University, for his willingness to provide support in the development of the SSC calendars utilized in this study.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Additional information
Capsule: This manuscript attempts to determine how an excessive heat event (EHE) of the magnitude of the 2003 European event would impact selected Korean cities and how the event would compare to other EHEs that have previously occurred.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Greene, J.S., Kalkstein, L.S., Kim, K.R. et al. The application of the European heat wave of 2003 to Korean cities to analyze impacts on heat-related mortality. Int J Biometeorol 60, 231–243 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1020-z
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-015-1020-z