Abstract
Climate projection data were applied to two commonly used pome fruit flowering models to investigate potential differences in predicted full bloom timing. The two methods, fixed thermal time and sequential chill-growth, produced different results for seven apple and pear varieties at two Australian locations. The fixed thermal time model predicted incremental advancement of full bloom, while results were mixed from the sequential chill-growth model. To further investigate how the sequential chill-growth model reacts under climate perturbed conditions, four simulations were created to represent a wider range of species physiological requirements. These were applied to five Australian locations covering varied climates. Lengthening of the chill period and contraction of the growth period was common to most results. The relative dominance of the chill or growth component tended to predict whether full bloom advanced, remained similar or was delayed with climate warming. The simplistic structure of the fixed thermal time model and the exclusion of winter chill conditions in this method indicate it is unlikely to be suitable for projection analyses. The sequential chill-growth model includes greater complexity; however, reservations in using this model for impact analyses remain. The results demonstrate that appropriate representation of physiological processes is essential to adequately predict changes to full bloom under climate perturbed conditions with greater model development needed.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anderson JL, Richardson EA, Kesner CD (1986) Validation of chill unit and flower bud phenology models for ‘Montmorency’ sour cherry. Acta Hortic 184:71–78
Atkins TA, Morgan ER (1990) Modelling the effection of possible climate change scenarios on the phenology of New-Zealand crops. Acta Hortic 276:201–208
Blümel K, Chmielewski FM (2012) Shortcomings of classical phenological forcing models and a way to overcome them. Agric For Meteorol 164:10–19
Caffarra A, Eccel E (2011) Projecting the impacts of climate change on the phenology of grapevine in a mountain area. Aust J Grape Wine R 17:52–61
Campoy JA, Ruiz D, Egea (2011) Dormancy in temperate fruit trees in a global warming context: A review. Sci Hortic 130:357–372
Cannell MGR, Smith RI (1983) Thermal time, chill days and prediction of budburst in picea-sitchensis. J Appl Ecol 20:951–963
Cannell M, Smith R (1986) Climate warming, spring budburst and forest damage on trees. J Appl Ecol 23:177–191
Cesaraccio C, Spano D, Snyder RL, Duce P (2004) Chilling and forcing model to predict bud-burst of crop and forest species. Agric For Meteorol 126:1–13
Chmielewski FM, Muller A, Bruns E (2004) Climate changes and trends in phenology of fruit trees and field crops in Germany, 1961–2000. Agric For Meteorol 121:69–78
Cleland EE, Chuine I, Menzel A, Mooney HA, Schwartz MD (2007) Shifting plant phenology in response to global change. Trends Ecol Evol 22:357–365
Darbyshire R, Webb L, Goodwin I, Barlow S (2011) Winter chilling trends for deciduous fruit trees in Australia. Agric For Meteorol 151:1074–1085
Darbyshire R, Webb L, Goodwin I, Barlow EWR (2013a) Evaluation of recent trends in Australian pome fruit spring phenology. Int J Biometeorol 57:409–421
Darbyshire R, Webb L, Goodwin I, Barlow EWR (2013b) Impact of future warming on winter chilling in Australia. Int J Biometeorol 57:355–366
De Melo-Abreu JP, Barranco D et al (2004) Modelling olive flowering date using chilling for dormancy release and thermal time. Agric For Meteorol 125:117–127
Eccel E, Rea R, Caffarra A, Crisci A (2009) Risk of spring frost to apple production under future climate scenarios: the role of phenological acclimation. Int J Biometeorol 53:273–286
Erez A, Fishman S, Linsley-Noakes GC, Allan P (1990) The dynamic model for rest completion in peach buds. Acta Hortic 279:165–174
Farajzadeh M, Rahimi M, Kamali GA, Mavrommatis T (2010) Modelling apple tree bud burst time and frost risk in Iran. Meteorol Appl 17:45–52
Fishman S, Erez A, Couvillon GA (1987) The temperature-dependence of dormancy breaking in plants—Computer-simulation of processes studied under controlled temperatures. J Theor Biol 126:309–321
Fujisawa M, Kobayashi K (2010) Apple (Malus pumila var. domestica) phenology is advancing due to rising air temperature in northern Japan. Global Change Biol 16:2651–2660
Ghariani K, Stebbins RL (1994) Chilling requirements of apple and pear cultivars. Fruit Varieties J 48:215–222
Grab S, Craparo A (2011) Advance of apple and pear tree full bloom dates in response to climate change in the southwestern Cape, South Africa: 1973–2009. Agric For Meteorol 151:406–413
Guedon Y, Legave J (2008) Analyzing the time-course variation of apple and pear tree dates of flowering stages in the global warming context. Ecol Modell 219:189–199
Harrington CA, Gould PJ, St.Clair JB (2010) Modeling the effects of winter environment on dormancy release of Douglas-fir. Forest Ecol Manag 259:798–808
IPCC (2007) Climate change 2007: the physical science basis. Contribution of working group I to the fourth assessment report of the intergovernmental panel on climate change, Cambridge University, Cambridge
Jones D, Wang W, Fawcett R (2009) High-quality spatial climate data-sets for Australia. Aust Meteorol Oceanogr J 58:233–248
Kunz A, Blanke MM (2011) Effects of global climate change on apple ‘Golden Delicious’ phenology—Based on 50 years of meteorological and phenological data in Klein-Altendorf. Acta Hortic 903:1121–1126
Legave J, Farrera I, Almeras T, Calleja M (2008) Selecting models of apple flowering time and understanding how global warming has had an impact on this trait. J Hortic Sci Biotech 83:76–84
Legave JM, Blanke M, Christen D, Giovannini D, Mathieu V, Oger R (2012) A comprehensive overview of the spatial and temporal variability of apple bud dormancy release and blooming phenology in Western Europe. Int J Biometeorol 57:317–331. doi:10.1007/s00484-012-0551-9
Linvill DE (1990) Calculating chilling hours and chill units from daily maximum and minimum temperature observations. HortSci 25:14–16
Lopez G, Dejong TM (2007) Spring temperatures have a major effect on early stages of peach fruit growth. J Hortic Sci Biotech 82:507–512
Luedeling E (2012) Climate change impacts on winter chill for temperate fruit and nut production: a review. Sci Hortic 144:218–229
Luedeling E, Brown P (2010) A global analysis of the comparability of winter chill models for fruit and nut trees. Int J Biometeorol 55:411–421
Luedeling E, Gassner A (2012) Partial least squares regression for analyzing walnut phenology in California. Agric For Meteorol 158–159:43–52
Luedeling E, Girvetz EH, Semenov MA, Brown PH (2011) Climate change affects winter chill for temperate fruit and nut trees. PLoS One 6:e20155
Luedeling E, Kunz A, Blanke MM (2012) Identification of chilling and heat requirements of cherry trees—a statistical approach. Int J Biometeorol 1–11 (in press)
Mankotia MS, Chauhan PS, Sud A, Jindal KK (2004) Estimation of effective chilling hours and GDH degrees C requirement and its significance in predicting full bloom in delicious apple. Acta Hortic 662:83–86
Menzel A, Sparks T (2006) Temperature and plant development: phenology and seasonality. In: Morison JIL, Morecroft MD (eds) Plant growth and climate change. Blackwell Publishing, Kundli, p 238
Miller-Rushing AJ, Katsuki T, Primack RB, Ishii Y, Sang DL, Higuchi H (2007) Impact of global warming on a group of related species and their hybrids: Cherry tree (Rosaceae) flowering at Mt. Takao, Japan. Am J Bot 94:1470–1478
Oukabli A, Bartolin S, Viti R (2003) Anatomical and morphological study of apple (Malus X domestica Borkh.) flower buds growing under inadequate winter chilling. J Hortic Sci Biotech 78:580–585
Petri JL, Leite GB, Putti GL (2008) Apple tree budbreak promoters in mild winter conditions. Acta Hortic 774:291–296
Rea R, Eccel E (2006) Phenological models for blooming of apple in a mountainous region. Int J Biometeorol 51:1–16
Rosenzweig C, Karoly D et al (2008) Attributing physical and biological impacts to anthropogenic climate change. Nature 453:353–358
Saure MC (1985) Dormancy release in deciduous fruit trees. Hortic Rev 7:239–300
Schwartz M (2003) Phenology: an integrative environmental science. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Netherlands
Sheard AG, Johnson SD, Cook NC (2009) Effect of timing and concentration of rest breaking agents on budburst in ‘Bing’ sweet cherry under conditions of inadequate winter chilling in South Africa. S Afr J Plant Soil 26:73–79
Valentini N, Me G, Ferrero R, Spanna F (2001) Use of bioclimatic indexes to characterize phenological phases of apple varieties in Northern Italy. Int J Biometeorol 45:191–195
Voller CFP (1986) Predicting rest-breaking: principles and problems. Decid Fruit Grow 36:302–308
Whetton P, Hennessy K, Clarke J, McInnes K, Kent D (2012) Use of representative climate futures in impact and adaptation assessment. Clim Change 115:433–442
Wolfe DW, Schwartz MD, Lakso AN, Otsuki Y, Pool RM, Shaulis NJ (2005) Climate change and shifts in spring phenology of three horticultural woody perennials in northeastern USA. Int J Biometeorol 49:303–309
Yu H, Luedeling E, Xu J (2010) Winter and spring warming result in delayed spring phenology on the Tibetan Plateau. Proc Nat Acad Sci 107:22151–22156
Zavalloni C, Andresen JA, Flore JA (2006a) Phenological models of flower bud stages and fruit growth of ‘Montmorency’ sour cherry based on growing degree-day accumulation. J Am Soc Hortic Sci 131:601–607
Zavalloni C, Andersen JA et al (2006b) The Pileus project: climatic impacts on sour cherry production in the Great Lakes region in past and projected future time frames. Acta Hortic 707:101–108
Acknowledgments
We thank the Australian Bureau of Meteorology for providing the historical meteorological data and QCCCE and CSIRO for the climate projection data used in the analysis. We further thank Chris Turnbull and Kevin Sanders for granting access to their orchard records and experience. Finally, Kevin Hennessy (CSIRO), Ian Smith (Bureau of Meteorology) and Jim Ricketts (QCCCE) provided valuable advice on projection methodologies.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Darbyshire, R., Webb, L., Goodwin, I. et al. Challenges in predicting climate change impacts on pome fruit phenology. Int J Biometeorol 58, 1119–1133 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0705-4
Received:
Revised:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-013-0705-4