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Performance of several models for predicting budburst date of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.)

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Abstract

The budburst stage is a key phenological stage for grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.), with large site and cultivar variability. The objective of the present work was to provide a reliable agro-meteorological model for simulating grapevine budburst occurrence all over France. The study was conducted using data from ten cultivars of grapevine (Cabernet Sauvignon, Chasselas, Chardonnay, Grenache, Merlot, Pinot Noir, Riesling, Sauvignon, Syrah, Ugni Blanc) and five locations (Bordeaux, Colmar, Angers, Montpellier, Epernay). First, we tested two commonly used models that do not take into account dormancy: growing degree days with a base temperature of 10°C (GDD10), and Riou’s model (RIOU). The errors of predictions of these models ranged between 9 and 21 days. Second, a new model (BRIN) was studied relying on well-known formalisms for orchard trees and taking into account the dormancy period. The BRIN model showed better performance in predicting budburst date than previous grapevine models. Analysis of the components of BRIN formalisms (calculation of dormancy, use of hourly temperatures, base temperature) explained the better performances obtained with the BRIN model. Base temperature was the main driver, while dormancy period was not significant in simulating budburst date. For each cultivar, we provide the parameter estimates that showed the best performance for both the BRIN model and the GDD model with a base temperature of 5°C.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Unité AGROCLIM, INRA, Site Agroparc, Domaine Saint Paul, Avignon cedex 9, 84914, France

    Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri & Nadine Brisson

  2. UMR Oenologie & Ampélologie, INRA, Domaine de la Grande Ferrade, Villenave d’Ornon, 33883, France

    Jean Pierre Gaudillere

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  1. Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri
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  2. Nadine Brisson
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  3. Jean Pierre Gaudillere
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Correspondence to Iñaki García de Cortázar-Atauri.

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García de Cortázar-Atauri, I., Brisson, N. & Gaudillere, J.P. Performance of several models for predicting budburst date of grapevine (Vitis vinifera L.). Int J Biometeorol 53, 317–326 (2009). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00484-009-0217-4

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