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Spatiotemporal analysis and risk assessment of thyroid cancer in Hangzhou, China

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Abstract

Thyroid cancer (TC) incidence in China has increased rapidly in recent years. Hangzhou is one of the areas with the highest TC incidence in China. However, the composite space–time variation and risk factors of TC are rarely investigated. We acquired 7147 TC cases from 2008 to 2012 in Hangzhou. Descriptive statistics were employed to compare the incidence disparities in different sub-populations. Geographical information systems were used to create spatial distribution maps. Hotspot analysis was applied to detect high/low incidence clusters, and the GeogDetector model was implemented to investigate the relationship between TC incidence and environmental factors. TC incidence in Hangzhou increased dramatically from 2008 to 2012: a noticeable 244.9 % increase, from 10.04 to 34.63 per 100,000 individuals, with a female to male ratio of 3.0, an urban to rural ratio of 3.2 and iodine sufficient to iodine deficient ratio of 3.5. Significantly high TC cluster was detected in the northeast area of Hangzhou. Elevation was found to be the most powerful determinant of TC distribution, followed by soil parent materials and slope. TC incidence decreased as elevation and slope increased. Concerning soil parent materials, deposited materials were generally linked to higher TC incidence than were eluvium ones. The spatial/temporal pattern of TC incidence is affected by geomorphology and soil property variations. Excessive iodine exposure may be a TC risk factor. Health research and management should pay sufficient attention to the improved understanding and prediction of the composite space–time distribution of the quickly increasing TC incidence described in this study.

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Acknowledgments

This work was supported partially by the Commission of Science and Technology, Hangzhou (20120533Q01), the Ministry of Education, China (20120101110131) and the Department of Science and Technology, Zhejiang Province (2013C03045-2). We are very grateful to Editor in Chief Christakos and three reviewers for their useful comments and suggestions which have substantially improved this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. College of Environment and Resource Sciences, Zhejiang University, Hangzhou, China

    Xufeng Fei

  2. Institute of Islands and Coastal Ecosystems, Zhejiang University, No. 866 Yuhangtang Road, Hangzhou, Zhejiang, 310058, China

    Jiaping Wu & Zhaohan Lou

  3. Hangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Hangzhou, China

    Qingmin Liu & Yanjun Ren

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  1. Xufeng Fei
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  2. Jiaping Wu
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  3. Qingmin Liu
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Correspondence to Jiaping Wu.

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Fei, X., Wu, J., Liu, Q. et al. Spatiotemporal analysis and risk assessment of thyroid cancer in Hangzhou, China. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 30, 2155–2168 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-015-1123-4

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