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Hydrological extreme variability in the headwater of Tarim River: links with atmospheric teleconnection and regional climate

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Abstract

Variability and possible relationship between monthly 1-day maximum/minimum flow from headwater of Tarim River basin, climatic indices and regional climate were detected by Mann–Kendall test, continuous wavelet transform, cross-wavelet and wavelet coherence methods. The results showed that: (1) hydrological extremes have increased during past 50 years, and the trends of 1-day minimum flow were larger than that of 1-day maximum flow. The most significant change occurred in winter; (2) the hydrological extremes exhibited significant 1-year period and 0.5-year period along the whole hydrological series; (3) different circulation indices may influence the trends of hydrological extremes in different river. The area of polar vortex in North American (i25) and area of Northern Hemisphere polar vortex (i5) showed most significant correlation with 1-day maximum flow and 1-day minimum flow in Aksu River, respectively. In Hotan River, the most significant correlated climate indices with 1-day maximum and minimum flow were Southern oscillation index and area of Northern American Subtropical High (i15), respectively. The area of polar vortex in Atlantic and Europe Sector (i35) showed significant relationships with 1-day minimum flow in Yarkand River; (4) regions of shared power at 0.8–1.5 year mode were found between selected climate indices and the hydrological extremes, anti-phase relations were detected for most of the series; (5) the fluctuations of temperature have strong effects on hydrological extremes, and significant coherence between regional climate and extremes was found at 0.7–1.5 year scale. The results of the study provide valuable information for improving the long-term forecasting of the hydrological extremes using its relationship with climate indices.

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Acknowledgments

The research is supported by the National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program: 2010CB951003). The authors thank the National Climate Central, China Meteorological Administration, for providing the meteorological data for this study. The authors also thank the editor and two anonymous reviews whose constructive criticism have resulted in the significant improvement of this paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Ürümqi, 830011, Xinjiang, China

    Huaijun Wang, Yaning Chen & Weihong Li

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing, 10049, China

    Huaijun Wang

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  1. Huaijun Wang
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  2. Yaning Chen
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  3. Weihong Li
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Correspondence to Yaning Chen.

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Wang, H., Chen, Y. & Li, W. Hydrological extreme variability in the headwater of Tarim River: links with atmospheric teleconnection and regional climate. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 28, 443–453 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-013-0763-5

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