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Quantifying geographic variations in associations between alcohol distribution and violence: a comparison of geographically weighted regression and spatially varying coefficient models

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Abstract

Past studies consistently indicate measurable local associations between alcohol distribution and the incidence of violence. These results, coupled with measurements of spatial correlation, reveal the importance of spatial analysis in the study of the interaction of alcohol and violence. While studies increasingly incorporate spatial correlation among model residuals to improve precision and reduce bias, to date, most analyses assume associations that are constant and independent of location, an assumption coming under increasing scrutiny in the quantitative geography literature. In this paper, we review and contrast two approaches for the estimation of and inference for spatially heterogeneous effects (i.e., associative factors whose impacts on the outcome of interest vary throughout geographic space). Specifically, we provide an in-depth comparison of “geographically weighted regression” models (allowing covariate effects to vary in space but only allowing relatively ad hoc inference) with “variable coefficient” models (allowing varying effects via spatial random fields and providing model-based estimation and inference, but requiring more advanced computational techniques). We compare the approaches with respect to underlying conceptual structures, computational implementation, and inferential output. We apply both approaches to violent crime, illegal drug arrest, and alcohol distribution data from Houston, Texas and compare results in light of the differing methodological structures of the two approaches.

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Acknowledgments

This work is supported in part by NIAAA contract HHW N28 1200410012C, “Ecosystem Models of Alcohol-Related Behavior.” The opinions expressed within represent those of the authors and not necessarily those of NIH or NIAAA.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Biostatistics, Rollins School of Public Health, Emory University, 1518 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA, 30322, USA

    Lance A. Waller

  2. Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Rural Public Health, Texas A&M University, 1266 TAMU, SRPH Building, College Station, TX, 77843, USA

    Li Zhu & Dennis M. Gorman

  3. National Center for Environmental Health, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Mailstop E17, 1600 Clifton Road NE, Atlanta, GA, 30333, USA

    Carol A. Gotway

  4. Prevention Research Center, Pacific Institute for Research and Evaluation, 1995 University Avenue, Suite 450, Berkeley, CA, 94704, USA

    Paul J. Gruenewald

Authors
  1. Lance A. Waller
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  2. Li Zhu
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  3. Carol A. Gotway
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  4. Dennis M. Gorman
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  5. Paul J. Gruenewald
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Correspondence to Lance A. Waller.

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Waller, L.A., Zhu, L., Gotway, C.A. et al. Quantifying geographic variations in associations between alcohol distribution and violence: a comparison of geographically weighted regression and spatially varying coefficient models. Stoch Environ Res Risk Assess 21, 573–588 (2007). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-007-0139-9

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-007-0139-9

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