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Spatial-temporal rainfall modelling for flood risk estimation

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Abstract

Some recent developments in the stochastic modelling of single site and spatial rainfall are summarised. Alternative single site models based on Poisson cluster processes are introduced, fitting methods are discussed, and performance is compared for representative UK hourly data. The representation of sub-hourly rainfall is discussed, and results from a temporal disaggregation scheme are presented. Extension of the Poisson process methods to spatial-temporal rainfall, using radar data, is reported. Current methods assume spatial and temporal stationarity; work in progress seeks to relax these restrictions. Unlike radar data, long sequences of daily raingauge data are commonly available, and the use of generalized linear models (GLMs) (which can represent both temporal and spatial non-stationarity) to represent the spatial structure of daily rainfall based on raingauge data is illustrated for a network in the North of England. For flood simulation, disaggregation of daily rainfall is required. A relatively simple methodology is described, in which a single site Poisson process model provides hourly sequences, conditioned on the observed or GLM-simulated daily data. As a first step, complete spatial dependence is assumed. Results from the River Lee catchment, near London, are promising. A relatively comprehensive set of methodologies is thus provided for hydrological application.

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Acknowledgements

Much of the recent research reported here has been supported by the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs under contract FD2105. Georgios Lourmas acknowledges the financial support provided through the European Community’s Human Potential Programme under contract HPRN-CT-2000-00100, DYNSTOCH.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Imperial College London, SW7 2BU, London, UK

    H. S. Wheater, C. J. Onof, E. Bellone, D. Lekkas & M.-L. Segond

  2. Department of Statistical Science, University College London, London, UK

    R. E. Chandler, V. S. Isham, E. Bellone, C. Yang & G. Lourmas

Authors
  1. H. S. Wheater
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  2. R. E. Chandler
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  3. C. J. Onof
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  4. V. S. Isham
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  5. E. Bellone
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  6. C. Yang
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  7. D. Lekkas
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  8. G. Lourmas
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  9. M.-L. Segond
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Correspondence to H. S. Wheater.

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Wheater, H.S., Chandler, R.E., Onof, C.J. et al. Spatial-temporal rainfall modelling for flood risk estimation. Stoch Environ Res Ris Assess 19, 403–416 (2005). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00477-005-0011-8

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