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Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano, Central Mexico

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Abstract

Popocatépetl Volcano is located in the central Mexican Volcanic Belt, within a densely populated region inhabited by over 20 million people. The eruptive history of this volcano indicates that it is capable of producing a wide range of eruptions, including Plinian events. After nearly 70 years of quiescence, Popocatépetl reawakened in December 21, 1994. The eruptive activity has continued up until the date of this submission and has been characterized by a succession of lava dome growth-and-destruction episodes, similar to events that have apparently been typical for Popocatépetl since the fourteenth century. In this regime, the episodes of effusive and moderately explosive activity alternate with long periods of almost total quiescence. In this paper we analyze five years of volcano-tectonic seismicity preceding the initial eruption of the current episode. The evolution of the V-T seismicity shows four distinct stages, which we interpret in terms of the internal processes which precede an eruption after a long period of quiescence. The thermal effects of a magma intrusion at depth, the fracturing related to the slow development of magma-related fluid pathways, the concentration of stress causing a protracted acceleration of this process, and a final relaxation or redistribution of the stress shortly before the initial eruption are reflected in the rates of V-T seismic energy release. A hindsight analysis of this activity shows that the acceleration of the seismicity in the third stage asymptotically forecast the time of the eruption. The total seismic energy release needed to produce an eruption after a long period of quiescence is related to the volume of rock that must be fractured so imposing a characteristic threshold limit for polygenetic volcanoes, limit that was reached by Popocatépetl before the eruption.

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Acknowledgments

We express our sincere thanks to the National Seismological Service of México (SSN), to the SISMEX network, and to CENAPRED for sharing their seismic data with us, and particularly to Ana María Alarcón for her help processing with ZMAP. The Japan International Cooperation Agency (JICA) early understood our strategy of monitoring Popocatépetl volcano and provided radiotelemetry and other equipment in the early precursory stage. We are deeply grateful to its authorities. We thank Prof. Takeshi Mikumo for his valuable comments and suggestions, and Dr. Carlos Valdés for his help in completing the seismic data set. We thank Prof. R. Scandone and an anonymous reviewer, whose comments and suggestions have greatly improved our manuscript. This study has been partially financed by DGAPA-PAPIIT UNAM grant IN110502. The Mexican National System of Civil Protection (SINAPROC) provided support and valuable information for which we are indebted.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Instituto de Geofísica. C. Universitaria, Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México, Mexico, 04510, DF, Mexico

    Servando De la Cruz-Reyna

  2. Faculty of Science, Hokkaido University, Sapporo, 060-0810, Japan

    Izumi Yokoyama

  3. Centro Nacional de Prevención de Desastres CENAPRED, Mexico, 04360, DF, Mexico

    Alicia Martínez-Bringas

  4. Dirección General de Protección Civil del Estado de México, Carr. México-Pachuca, km 37, Tecamac, Méx. 55740, Mexico

    Esteban Ramos

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  1. Servando De la Cruz-Reyna
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  2. Izumi Yokoyama
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Correspondence to Servando De la Cruz-Reyna.

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De la Cruz-Reyna, S., Yokoyama, I., Martínez-Bringas, A. et al. Precursory seismicity of the 1994 eruption of Popocatépetl Volcano, Central Mexico. Bull Volcanol 70, 753–767 (2008). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00445-008-0195-0

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