Abstract
It is unequivocal that climate change is happening and is likely to expand the geographical distribution of several vector-borne diseases, including malaria and dengue etc. to higher altitudes and latitudes. India is endemic for six major vector-borne diseases (VBD) namely malaria, dengue, chikungunya, filariasis, Japanese encephalitis and visceral leishmaniasis. Over the years, there has been reduction in the incidence of almost all the diseases except chikungunya which has re-emerged since 2005. The upcoming issue of climate change has surfaced as a new threat and challenge for ongoing efforts to contain vector-borne diseases. There is greater awareness about the potential impacts of climate change on VBDs in India and research institutions and national authorities have initiated actions to assess the impacts. Studies undertaken in India on malaria in the context of climate change impact reveal that transmission windows in Punjab, Haryana, Jammu and Kashmir and north-eastern states are likely to extend temporally by 2–3 months and in Orissa, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu there may be reduction in transmission windows. Using PRECIS model (driven by HadRM2) at the resolution of 50 × 50 Km for daily temperature and relative humidity for year 2050, it was found that Orissa, West Bengal and southern parts of Assam will still remain malarious and transmission windows will open up in Himachal Pradesh and north-eastern states etc. Impact of climate change on dengue also reveals increase in transmission with 2 C rise in temperature in northern India. Re-emergence of kala-azar in northern parts of India and reappearance of chikungunya mainly in southern states of India has also been discussed. The possible need to address the threat and efforts made in India have also been highlighted. The paper concludes with a positive lead that with better preparedness threat of climate change on vector-borne diseases may be negated.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Afonso MO, Campino L, Cortes S, Alves-Pires C (2005) The phlebotomine sand flies of Portugal. XIII. Occurrence of Phlebotomus sergenti Parrot, 1917 in the Arrabida leishmaniasis focus. Parasite 12:69–72
Ansari MA, Razdan RK (1998) Seasonal prevalence of Aedes aegypti in five localities of Delhi, India. Dengue Bull 22:28–32
Aransay AM, Testa JM, Morillas-Marquez F, Lucientes J, Ready PD (2004) Distribution of sand fly species in relation to canine leishmaniasis from the Ebro Valley to Valencia, north-eastern Spain. Parasitol Res 94:416–420
Bhattacharya S, Sharma C, Dhiman RC, Mitra AP (2006) Climate change and malaria in India. Curr Sci 90:369–375
Bruce-Chwatt LJ (1980) Epidemiology of malaria. In: Essential Malariology, William Heinemann Medical Books Ltd, London, pp 129–168
Calheiros J, E Casimiro (2006) Saude humana [Human health]. Alteracoes climaticas em Portugal: Cenarios, impactos e medias de adapacao—Projecto SIAM [Climate Change in Portugal: Scenarios, Impacts and Adaptation measures—SIAM Project], Santos F, Miranda P (eds) Gravida, Lisbon, pp 451–462
Campbell-Lendrum D, Woodruff R (2007) Climate change: quantifying the health impact at national and local levels. Pruss-Ustun A, Corvalan C (eds) World health organization Geneva (WHO Environmental Burden of Disease Series, No. 14)
Casimiro E, Calheiros J (2002) Human health. Climate change in portugal: scenarios, Impacts and adaptation measures—SIAM Project. Santos F, Forbes K, Moita R, (eds) Gradiva, Lisbon, pp 241–300
Choudhary N, Saxena NBL (1987) Visceral leishmaniasis in India—a brief review. J Com Dis 19:332–340
Craig MH, Snow RW, DA Sueur LE (1999) Climate based distribution model of malaria transmission in sub-Saharan Africa. Parasitol Today 15:105–111
Dash SK, Hunt JCR (2007) Variability of climate change in India. Curr Sci 93:782–788
Datta U, Rajwanshi A, Rayat CS, Sakhuja V, Sehgal S (1984) Kala-azar in Himachal Pradesh: a new pocket. J Assoc Physicians India 32:1072–1073
Detinova TS (1962) Age grouping methods in Diptera of medical importance with special reference to some vectors of malaria. Monograph series 47. World Health Organization, Geneva, pp 1–216
de Wet N, Ye W, Hales S, Warrick RA, Woodward A, Weinstein P (2001) Use of a computer model to identify potential hotspots for dengue fever in New Zealand. New Zeal Med J 11:420–422
Dhiman RC, Bhattacharjee S, Adak T, Subbarao S K (2003) Impact of climate change on Malaria in India with emphasis on selected sites. Proceedings of the NATCOM V&A Workshop on Water Resources, Coastal Zones and Human Health held at IIT Delhi, New Delhi, and 27–28 June: 127–131
Dhiman RC, Pahwa S, Dash AP (2008) Climate change and malaria in India: interplay between temperatures and mosquitoes. WHO Reg Forum 12:27–31
Ebi KL, Hartman J, Chan N, McConnell J, Schlesinger M, Weyant J (2005) Climate suitability for stable malaria transmission in Zimbabwe under different climate change scenarios. Clim Change 73:375–393
Enscore R, Biggerstaff B, Brown T, Fulgham R, Reynolds P, Engelthaler D, Levy C, Parmenter R, Montenieri J, Cheek J, Grinnell R, Ettestad P, Gage K (2002) Modeling relationships between climate and the frequency of human plague cases in the southwestern United States, 1960–1997. Am J Trop Med Hyg 66:186–196
Fay RW (1964) The Biology and bionomics of Aedes aegypti in the laboratory. Mosq News 24:300–308
Focks DA, Daniels E, Haile DG, Keesling JE (1995) A simulation model of the epidemiology of urban dengue fever: literature analysis, model development, preliminary validation, and samples of simulation results. Am J Trop Med Hyg 53:489–506
Gubler DJ (1997) Dengue hemorrhagic fever: its history and resurgence as a global health problem. In: Gubler DJ, Kuno G (eds) Dengue hemorrhagic fever. CAB International, New York, pp 1–22
Gubler DJ (1998) Dengue and dengue hemorrhagic fever. Clin Microbiol Rev 11:480–496
Gupta E, Dar L, Narang P, Srivastava VK, Broor S (2005) Serodiagnosis of dengue during an outbreak at a tertiary care hospital in Delhi. Indian J Med Res 121:36–38
Gupta E et al (2006) The changing epidemiology of dengue in Delhi. Virol J 3:92–98
Hales S, de Wet N, Maindonald J, Woodward A (2002) Potential effect of population and climate changes on global distribution of dengue fever: an empirical model. Lancet 360:830–834
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2001) Climate change 2001: third assessment report (Volume I). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, pp 1–408
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Climate Change (2007a) Impacts, adaptation and vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. Cambridge University Press pp 1–976
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) (2007b) Summary for policymakers. In: Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate. Cambridge University Press, pp 1–93
Jetten TH, Focks DA (1997) Potential changes in the distribution of dengue transmission under climate warming. Am J Trop Med Hyg 57:238–287
Jetten TH, Martens WJM, Takken W (1996) Model simulations to estimate malaria risk under climate change. J Med Entomol 33:361–371
Kalra NL (1999) Vector Bionomics in the epidemiology of Kala-azar and its control. In Proceedings of the Fifth Round table conference held at New Delhi. Sushma G, Sood OP (eds), pp 121–130
Kovats S, Ebi KL, Menne B (2003) Methods of assessing human health vulnerability and public health adaptation to climate change. Health and Global Environmental Change series No 1 WHO, WMO and UNEP pp 1–107
Kuhn KD, Campbell-Lendrum, Davies CR (2002) A continental risk map for malaria mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) vectors in Europe. J Med Entomol 39:621–630
Lindsay SW, Birley MH (1996) Climate change and malaria transmission. Ann Trop Med & Parasit 90:573–588
MacDonald G (1957) The epidemiology and control of malaria Oxford University Press London, pp 201
Mahajan SK, Machhan P, Kanga A, Thakur S, Sharma A, Prasher BS, Pal LS (2004) Kala-azar at high altitude. J Commun Dis 36:117–120
Mathur P, Samantaray JC, Mangraj S (2004) Smouldering focus of kala-azar in Assam. Indian J Med Res 120:56
Martens P (1997) Health impacts of climate change and ozone depletion. An Eco-epidemiological Modelling Approach 1–157
Martens P (1998) Health and climate change: modeling the impacts of global warming and ozone depletion. Earthscan Publications, London
Martens WJ, Nissen LW, Rothmans J, Jetten TH, McMichael AJ (1995) Potential impact of global climate change on malaria risk. Environ Health Perspect 103:458–464
Martens WJM, Kovats RS, Nijhof S, deVries P, Livermore MJT, Mc Michael AJ, Bradley D, Cox J (1999) Climate change and future populations at risk of malaria. Global Environ Change 9:S89–S107
McMichael AJ, Woodruff R, Whetton P, Hennessy K, Nicholls N, Hales S, Woodward A, Kjellstrom T (2003) Human health and climate change in Oceania: Risk assessment 2002. Department of Health and Ageing, Canberra, p 128
Ministry of Environment and Forests, Government of India. (2004) India’s initial national communication to the United Nations framework convention on climate change 1–265
Molineaux L (1988) Epidemiology of malaria. In: Wernsdorfer WH, Mc Gregor IA (eds) Malaria: principles and practice of malariology vol. 2. Churchill Livingstone, New-York, pp 913–998
Molineaux L, Gramiccia G (1980) The Garki project: research on the epidemiology and control of malaria in the Sudan Savanna of West Africa WHO
Moore CG, Cline BL, Ruiz-Tiben E, Lee D, Romney-Joseph H, Rivera-Correa E (1978) Aedes aegypti in Puerto Rico: environmental determinants of larval abundance and relation to dengue virus transmission. Am J Trop Med Hyg 27:1225–1231
Napier LE (1926) An epidemiological consideration of the transmission of Kala—azar in India. In Reports of the Kala–azar commission, India, Report No 1 (1924–25). Indian Medical Research Memoirs, Memoir No–4. pp 219–265.November, 4–6:102
National Action Plan on Climate Change (2008) www.pmindia.nic.in
Pampana E (1969) A textbook of malaria eradication, 2nd edn. Oxford University Press, London, pp 45–53
Parmenter RR, Yadav EP, Ettestad P, Gage KL (1999) Incidence of plague associated with increased winter–spring precipitation in New Mexico. Am J Trop Med Hyg 6:814–821
Patel KK, Patel AK, Sarda P, Shah BA, Ranjan R (2009) Immune reconstruction visceral leishmaniasis presented as hemophagocytic syndrome in a patient with AIDS from a nonendemic area: a case report. J Int Assoc Physicians AIDS Care (Chic III) 8:217–220
Patz JA, Martens WJ M, Focks DA, Jetten TH (1998) Dengue epidemic potential as projected by general circulation models of global climate change. Environ Health Perspect 106:147–152
Pavri K (1986) Disappearance of chikungunya virus from India and Southeast Asia. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 80:49
Rueda LM, Patel KJ, Axtell RC, Stinner RE (1990) Temperature-dependent development and survival rates of Culex quinquefasciatus and Aedes aegypti (Diptera: Culicidae). J Med Entomol 27:892–898
Russell PF, West LS, Manwell RD, MacDonald G (1963) Practical malariology. Oxford University Press, London
Sarkar U, Nascimento SF, Barbosa R, Martins R, Nuevo H, Kalafanos I, Grunstein I, Flannery B, Dias J, Riley LW, Reis MG, Ko A (2002) Population-based case-control investigation of risk factors for leptospirosis during an urban epidemic. Am J Trop Med Hyg 66:605–610
Sehgal SC (2000) Leptospirosis in the horizon. Natl Med J India 13:228–230
Sengupta PC (1951) A report of kala-azar in Assam (concld). Ind Med Gaz 86:312–317
Sharma SK (1998) Entomological investigations of DF/DHF outbreak in rural areas of Hissar District, Haryana. India Dengue Bull 22:36–41
Sharma VP (2003) Malaria and poverty in India. Curr Sci 84:513–515
Sharma RS, Joshi PL, Tiwari KN, Katyal R, Gill KS (2005) Outbreak of dengue in national capital territory of Delhi, India during 2003. Vector Ecol 30:337–338
Sharma U, Redhu NS, Mathur P, Singh S (2007) Re-emergence of visceral leishmaniasis in Gujarat, India. J Vector Borne Dis 44:230–232
Sharma NL, Mahajan VK, Ranjan N, Verma GK, Negi AK, Mehta KI (2009) The sandflies of the Satluj river valley, Himachal Pradesh (India): some possible vectors of the parasite causing human cutaneous and visceral leishmaniases in this endemic focus. J Vector Borne Dis 46:136–140
Singh S, Biswas A, Wig N, Aggarwal P, Sood R, Wali JP (1999) A new focus of visceral leishmaniasis in sub-Himalayan (Kumaon) region of northern India. J Commun Dis 31:73–77
Stapp P, Antolin M, Ball M (2004) Patterns of extinction in prairie dog met populations: plague outbreaks follow El Nino events. Front Ecol Enviro 2:235–240
Stenseth N (2006) Plague dynamics are driven by climate variations. Proc Nat Acad Sci USA 1003:13110–13115
Sunish IP, Reuben R (2001) Factors influencing the abundance of Japanese encephalitis vectors in rice fields in India-I. Abiotic Med Vet Entomol 15:381–392
Tanser FC, Sharp B, Sueur D (2003) Potential effect of climate change in malaria transmission in Africa. Lancet 362:1792–1798
Thomas CJ, Davies G, Dunn CE (2004) Mixed picture for changes in stable malaria distribution with future climate in Africa. Trends Parasitol 20:216–220
van Lieshout M, Kovats R, Livermore MTJ, Martens P (2004) Climate change and malaria: analysis of the SRES climate and socio-economic scenarios. Global Environ Chang 14:87–99
Verma SK, Ahmad S, Shirazi N, Kusum A, Kaushik RM, Barthwal SP (2007) Sodium stibogluconate-sensitive visceral leishmaniasis in the non-endemic hilly region of Uttarakhand, India. Trans R Soc Trop Med Hyg 101:730–732
Vijayachari P, Sugunan AP, Shriram AN (2008) Leptospirosis: an emerging global public health problem. J Biosci 33:557–569
Watts DM et al (1987) Effect of temperature on the vector efficiency of Aedes aegypti for dengue 2 virus. Am J Trop Med Hyg 36:143–152
Woodruff RE, Hales S, Butler C, McMichael A (2005) Climate change and health impacts in Australia: effects of dramatic CO2 emission reductions. Report for the Australia Conservation Foundation and the Australian Medical Association. Australian National University, Canberra, 45 pp
World Health Organization (1975) Manual on practical entomology in malaria. Part I (vector bionomics and organization of ant malaria activities, 1–160) and Part II (Methods and techniques, 1–191) WHO Offset Publication No. 13, Geneva
World Health Organization (2000) Climate change and Human Health: Impact and Adaptation, Geneva. WHO/SDE/OEH/00.4
World Health Organization (2003) Climate Change and Human Health- Risk and Response. Summary. WHO. ISBN 9241590815. WHO Publication. pp 1–37
World Health Organization (2008) 26th Meeting of Ministers of Health of WHO South-East Asia Region, New Delhi, 8–9 September 2008
Yergolkar PN, Tandale BV, Arankalle, VA, Sathe PS, Sudeep AB, Gandhe SS, Gokhle MD, Jacob GP, Hundeka SL, Mishra AC (2006) Chikungunya outbreaks caused by African Genotype, India. EID Journal Vol.12 (http://www.cdc.gov/ncidod/EID/vol12no10/06-0529.htm)
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Dhiman, R.C., Pahwa, S., Dhillon, G.P.S. et al. Climate change and threat of vector-borne diseases in India: are we prepared?. Parasitol Res 106, 763–773 (2010). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00436-010-1767-4
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00436-010-1767-4