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A competing risk nomogram to predict cancer-specific mortality of patients with late-onset colorectal cancer

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Abstract

Objective

This study aimed to compare the clinical characteristics and survival differences between early-onset colorectal cancer (EOCRC) patients and late-onset colorectal cancer (LOCRC) patients, identify the risk factors for cancer-specific mortality (CSM) in LOCRC patients and construct a mortality risk assessment nomogram.

Methods

CRC patients diagnosed pathologically between 2010 and 2019 in the SEER database were included and divided into the early-onset group and the late-onset group, and the late-onset group was divided into the training and validation sets. The Fine-Gray competing risk model was applied to analyze the prognostic factors of LOCRC patients and establish a competing risk nomogram for CSM.

Results

There are differences in the distribution of multiple clinical features between the early-onset group and the late-onset group. Age, tumor size, histological type, pathological grading, T stage, N stage, M stage, SEER stage, primary tumor surgery, metastatic lesion surgery, radiotherapy, chemotherapy, neural invasion, and carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) were independent influencing factors of the CSM rate in LOCRC patients. The C-index of the prognosis model outweighed 0.8, and the calibration curves fitted the reference line well.

Conclusion

The CSM competing risk nomogram for LOCRC patients in this study had acceptable predictive performance that could be applied to the clinic.

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Data availability

Publicly available datasets were analyzed in this study. These data were derived from the SEER database.

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Acknowledgements

The authors thank the NCI for providing the SEER dataset.

Funding

The Tianjin Municipal Education Commission Scientific Research Program (Natural Science) of China (No.2019KJ048) funded this study.

Author information

Author notes

  1. Zhixiao Liao and Yueyang Deng contributed equally to this work and share first authorship.

Authors and Affiliations

  1. The First Clinical Medical College of Guangzhou, University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China

    Zhixiao Liao

  2. Intensive Care Unit, Tianjin Cancer Hospital Airport Hospital, Tianjin, China

    Yueyang Deng & Rui Xia

  3. Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Guangzhou University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Guangzhou, China

    Jingxu Zhou

  4. Department of Oncology, The First Affiliated Hospital of Tianjin University of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China

    Jinli Zhu

  5. The National Clinical Medical Research Center for Acupuncture of Traditional Chinese Medicine, Tianjin, China

    Jinli Zhu

Authors
  1. Zhixiao Liao
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  2. Yueyang Deng
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  3. Jingxu Zhou
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  4. Jinli Zhu
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  5. Rui Xia
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Contributions

Conception and design: ZL and YD. Administrative support: JxZ, JlZ and RX. Collection and assembly of data: ZL and YD. Data analysis and interpretation: ZL. Manuscript writing: all authors. Final approval of manuscript: all authors.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Rui Xia.

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The authors declare that the research was conducted in the absence of any commercial or financial relationships that could be construed as a potential conflict of interest.

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Liao, Z., Deng, Y., Zhou, J. et al. A competing risk nomogram to predict cancer-specific mortality of patients with late-onset colorectal cancer. J Cancer Res Clin Oncol 149, 14025–14033 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-023-05069-3

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00432-023-05069-3

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