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Reliability of the Greulich and Pyle method for chronological age estimation and age majority prediction in a Spanish sample

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Abstract

Estimating the forensic age of living individuals is ever more important in forensic practice, due to the ongoing increase of migratory flows, amongst other causes. Using the Greulich and Pyle method on a sample of 1150 individuals of the Spanish population (n = 560, 0–18 years for girls, and n = 590, 0–19 years for boys), the mean difference between the bone and chronological ages was obtained: 0.01 years (− 0.81, + 0.92) for girls and 0.33 years (− 1.15, + 0.34) for boys. For a same class of age and sex, the inherent variability was also evaluated: \( \overline{s}=0.84 \) (0.41–1.25) for girls and \( \overline{s}=0.80 \)years (0.36–1.76) for boys. To minimise systematic errors with regard to the reference population, adjustment factors are proposed for each age and sex. A sequential classification criterion based on decision trees is postulated to improve reliability in the prediction of maturity. Implementation of the decision criterion in three categories enables the doubtful individuals to be separated into the category of “undetermined” and to satisfactorily classify in the categories of “mature” and “under age”: 0.96 (0.86–0.99) specificity; 1.00 (0.92–1.00) specificity; and 1.00 (0.92–1.00) predictive value.

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Acknowledgments

We would like to thank, for the access to the radiographic material, to Drs. A. Muntaner and M.T. Maristany of the Dept. of Image for the Diagnosis of the Hospital San Joan de Déu de Barcelona and to Dr. J.M. Bantulà del Servei de Diagnòstic per la Imatge (SDPI) Pura Fernàndez of L’Hospitalet de Llobregat (Barcelona). This work was supported in part by research project 2014 SGR 464 (GRBIO) of the Departament d’Economia i Coneixement, Generalitat de Catalunya.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Zoology and Anthropology Section, Department of Evolutionary Biology, Ecology and Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Biology, University of Barcelona, Avda. Diagonal 643, 08028, Barcelona, Spain

    M. Alcina, A. Lucea & D. Turbón

  2. Deparment of Genetics, Microbiology and Statistics. Faculty of Biology, University of Barcelona, Avgda. Diagonal 643, 08028, Barcelona, Spain

    M. Salicrú

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  1. M. Alcina
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  2. A. Lucea
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  3. M. Salicrú
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Correspondence to D. Turbón.

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All the procedures and studies have been carried out in accordance with the ethical standards established by the Ethical Committees of Clinical Research (Hospital Sant Joan de Deu: ECCR attached to the Fundación Sant Joan de Deu; and SDPI Pura Fernàndez of the Hospital of Llobregat: ECCR of the Instituto Universitario de Investigación en Atención Primaria Jordi Golp).

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Alcina, M., Lucea, A., Salicrú, M. et al. Reliability of the Greulich and Pyle method for chronological age estimation and age majority prediction in a Spanish sample. Int J Legal Med 132, 1139–1149 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00414-017-1760-x

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