Skip to main content
SpringerLink
Log in

Observed and GCM simulated decadal variability of monsoon rainfall in east China

  • Published:
Climate Dynamics Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

Variability and associated mechanisms of summer rainfall over east China are identified and described using both observations and a general circulation model (GCM) simulation. The observations include two data sets: the 90-station, 1470–1988 annual drought/flood index and the 60-station, 1889–1988 monthly mean precipitation measurements. The GCM data set is a 100-year equilibrium simulation of the present climate. Spectra of the drought/flood index indicate decadal cycles which decrease from north (≈47 y) to south (≈21 y). Correlation coefficients show decadal variability in the relationship between index values along the Yangtse River valley and those over northeast and southeast China. Analysis of the measured data confirms this result; for example, the correlation was small during 1889–1918, but significantly negative during 1930–1959. When compared with precipitation measurements, the GCM better simulates monthly means and variances along the Yangtse River valley. Three distinct 30-year periods of interannual variability in summer rainfall are found over this area. During each period, rainfall is negatively correlated with spring surface temperature over a remote region and is identified with variations in a specific component of the east Asian monsoon circulation: (1) when Eurasian temperatures decrease, the thermal contrast across the Mei-Yu front increases and frontal rainfall intensities; (2) lower temperatures over the Sea of Japan/northwest Pacific Ocean are identified with enhanced easterly flow, moisture transport and rainfall; (3) when tropical east Pacific Ocean temperatures decrease, rainfall associated with the low latitude monsoon trough increases. Given that the GCM generates decadal changes in the relationship between the physical mechanisms, the east Asian monsoon and planetary general circulations and east China rainfall, future studies should focus on the predictability of these changes with the use of improved and much longer GCM simulations.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Price excludes VAT (USA)
Tax calculation will be finalised during checkout.

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Barnett PT, Dümenil L, Schlese U, Roeckner E, Latif M (1989) The effect of Eurasian snow cover on regional and global climate variations. J Atmos Sci 46:661–685

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • CAMS (1981) Yearly charts of dryness/wetness China for the last 500-year period. In: Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences (ed) Atlas Press, Beijing (in Chinese)

  • Cohen J, Rind D (1991) The effect of snow cover on the climate. J Clim 4:689–706

    Google Scholar 

  • Covey C, Thompson SL (1989) Testing the effects of ocean heat transport on climate. Palaeogeogr Paleoclimatol Paleoecol 75:331–341

    Google Scholar 

  • Elliott WP, Angell JK (1987) The relation between Indian monsoon rainfall, the Southern Oscillation, and hemispheric air and sea temperature 1884–1984. J Climate Appl Meteorol 26:934–948

    Google Scholar 

  • Elliott WP, Angell JK (1988) Evidence for changes in Southern Oscillation relationships during the last 100 years. J Clim 1:729–737

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Fu CB, Fletcher J (1985) The relationship between Tibet-tropical ocean thermal contrast and interannual variability of Indian monsoon rainfall. J Climatol Appl Meteorol 24:841–847

    Google Scholar 

  • Fu CB, Fletcher J (1988) Large signals of climatic variations over the ocean in the Asian monsoon region. Adv Atmos Sci 5:389–404

    Google Scholar 

  • Fu CB, Teng XL (1988) The relationship between summer climate anomalies in China and El Niño-Southern Oscillation phenomena. Sci Atmos Sinica (Spec Iss):133–141

  • Jaeger L (1976) Monatskarten des Niederschlags für die ganze Erde. Ber Dtsch Wetterdienstes 18 (239)

  • Khandekar ML (1991) Eurasian snow cover, Indian monsoon and El Niño/Southern Oscillation — a synthesis. Atmos-Ocean 29:636–647

    Google Scholar 

  • Kutzbach JE (1987) The changing pulse of the monsoon. In: Fein JS, Stephens PL (eds) Monsoons. John Wiley, New York, pp 247–268

  • Liang X-Z, Wang W-C, Dudek MP (1994). Interannual variability of regional climate and its change due to the greenhouse effect. MECCA Spec Iss Global Planet Change (accepted)

  • Mooley DA, Shukla J (1987) Variability and forecasting of the summer monsoon rainfall over India. In: Chang C-P, Krishnamurti TN (eds) Monsoon meteorology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 26–59

    Google Scholar 

  • Parthasarathy B, Rupa Kumar K, Munot AA (1991) Evidence of secular variations in Indian monsoon rainfall-circulation relationships. J Clim 4:927–938

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Ronberg B, Wang W-C (1987) Climate patterns derived from Chinese proxy precipitation records: an evaluation of the station networks and statistical techniques. J Climatol 7:391–416

    Google Scholar 

  • Shukla J (1987) Interannual variability of monsoons. In: Fein JS, Stephens PL (eds) Monsoons. John Wiley, New York, pp 399–463

  • Tao S, Chen L (1987) A review of recent research on the east Asian summer monsoon in China. In: Chang C-P, Krishnamurti TN (eds) Monsoon meteorology. Oxford University Press, Oxford, pp 60–92

    Google Scholar 

  • Tao S, Fu C, Zeng Z, Zhang Q-Y (1991) Two long-term instrumental climate data bases of the People's Republic of China. In: Kaiser DP (ed) Environmental Sciences Division, DOE, Publication No. 3747, ORNL/CDIAC-47, NDP-039

  • Wang W-C, Shi G-Y, Kiehl JT (1991) Incorporation of the thermal radiative effect of CH4, N2O, CF2Cl2, and CFCl3 into the National Center for Atmospheric Research Community Climate Model. J Geophys Res 96:9097–9103

    Google Scholar 

  • Wang W-C, Dudek MP, Liang X-Z (1992) Inadequacy of effective CO2 as a proxy in assessing the regional climate change due to other radiatively active gases. Geophys Res Lett 19:1375–1678

    Google Scholar 

  • Williamson DL, Kiehl JT, Ramanathan V, Dickenson RE, Hack JJ (1987) Description of NCAR Community Climate Model (CCM1). NCAR Tech Note, NCAR/TN-285+STR

  • Xu Q (1975) Mei-Yu (monsoon rainfall) in the Yangtse River valley during the last 80 years. Acta Meteorol Sinica 33:507–518

    Google Scholar 

  • Yasunari T, Kitoh A, Tokioka T (1991) Local and remote responses to excessive snow mass over Eurasia appearing in the Northern spring and summer climate, a study with the MRI GCM. J Meteorol Soc Japan 69:473–487

    Google Scholar 

  • Zwiers F (1993) Simulation of the Asian summer monsoon with the CCC GCM-1. J Clim 6:470–486

    Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Sciences Research Center, State University of New York, 12205, Albany, New York, USA

    Xin-Zhong Liang, Arthur N Samel & Wei-Chyung Wang

Authors
  1. Xin-Zhong Liang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Arthur N Samel
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. Wei-Chyung Wang
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Liang, XZ., Samel, A.N. & Wang, WC. Observed and GCM simulated decadal variability of monsoon rainfall in east China. Climate Dynamics 11, 103–114 (1995). https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00211676

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Accepted:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/BF00211676

Keywords

Search

Navigation