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Multi-decadal enhancement in the influence of El Niño on the Indian Ocean dipole mode

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Abstract

El Niño is an important external factor to trigger a positive Indian Ocean (IO) dipole (pIOD) mode with anomalous sea surface temperature (SST) cooling (warming) over the tropical southeastern (western) IO on the interannual timescale. Based on the observational and reanalyzed datasets during 1948–2020, this study shows a multi-decadal enhancement of the interannual pIOD mode since the early 1990s. Moreover, only the pIOD events concurring with El Niño show such a multi-decadal enhancement, while the independent pIOD events change little, implying a strengthening influence of El Niño on the pIOD mode. The analyses suggest that such a strengthening response of the pIOD mode to El Niño is ascribed to the enhancement of the El Niño-related central Pacific SST warming around the early 1990s. A stronger El Niño-related central Pacific SST warming tends to induce a stronger anomalous Walker circulation adjustment over the tropical Pacific and IO, particularly the low-level anomalous easterlies along the equatorial IO. The stronger anomalous equatorial easterlies could enhance the Bjerknes positive feedback over the tropical IO, resulting in a stronger pIOD mode. In addition, we also find that the strengthening influence of El Niño on the pIOD mode causes a longer duration of the pIOD mode: while the pIOD events concurring with El Niño mature in boreal autumns and tend to sharply terminate in the following early winter before the early 1990s, those tend to persist longer until the early winter (December and January). Our results highlight a multi-decadal enhancement in the effect of El Niño on the pIOD mode since the early 1990s, with implications for the future regional climate prediction under global warming.

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Data availability

The HadISST data are obtained from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/hadisst/. The EN4 subsurface temperature data are downloaded from https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/hadobs/en4/. The NCEP/NCAR and ERA5 atmospheric reanalysis data are gained from https://psl.noaa.gov/data/gridded/data.ncep.reanalysis.pressure.html and https://doi.org/10.24381/cds.6860a573, respectively. The ORAS4 SSH data are available at https://adprc.soest.hawaii.edu/datadoc/eccmwf_oras4.php.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge the Met Office Hadley Centre, the National Ocean and Atmosphere Administration (NOAA), and the ECMWF for providing the data products used in this study.

Funding

This work is supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41831175) and the Key Scientific and Technological Project of the Ministry of Water Resources, P. R. China (SKS-2022001).

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  1. The National Key Laboratory of Water Disaster Prevention, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

    Zhiyuan Zhang & Gen Li

  2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

    Zhiyuan Zhang

  3. College of Oceanography, Hohai University, Nanjing, China

    Gen Li

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GL conceptualized the study. ZZ performed the analysis. ZZ and GL wrote the manuscript.

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Zhang, Z., Li, G. Multi-decadal enhancement in the influence of El Niño on the Indian Ocean dipole mode. Clim Dyn 61, 5331–5347 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-023-06858-9

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