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Impact of individual and combined influence of large-scale climatic oscillations on Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes

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Abstract

The occurrence of extreme precipitation events during Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall (ISMR) has increased significantly in recent decades. Natural spatio-temporal variability of extreme precipitation events in India has been linked to various climatic variables like El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Equatorial Indian Ocean Oscillation (EQUINOO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO). In this study, extreme precipitation indices are used to characterize the ISMR extremes and possible individual and coupled association with climatic variables identified using wavelet analysis. Region-based analysis revealed that ENSO, EQUINOO, PDO, and AMO influence extreme precipitation events on spatio-temporal scales. Variability of the duration of extreme precipitation events strongly depends on the ENSO at interannual scale compared to the other climate variables whereas, total precipitation greater than 95th percentile and maximum consecutive 5-day precipitation values were significantly coherent on inter-decadal scale with ENSO, EQUINOO, and PDO. It is also found that the climate variables together cause variability in ISMR extremes, particularly AMO-ENSO-EQUINOO and AMO-ENSO-PDO combinations explain the variability better than any other combination. An increase in the number of climate variables did not improve the coherence, since these climatic variables are correlated with each other. Further, the decomposition of wavelets at different scales shows that more than half of the grid points considered were significant at interdecadal and multidecadal scales even though they are designated with different time scales. This indicates that the non-stationary behavior of the ISMR extremes is directly linked to the climatic variables at higher scales.

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Data availability statement

The datasets generated during and/or analyzed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to acknowledge funding provided by the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), India for this study.

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This work is supported by the Science and Engineering Research Board (SERB), India (award number: SRG/2019/000650).

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  1. Department of Civil Engineering, Indian Institute of Technology Palakkad, Palakkad, Kerala, India

    K. Athira & Sarmistha Singh

  2. Department of Mathematics & Statistics, Auburn University, Alabama, USA

    Ash Abebe

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Athira, K., Singh, S. & Abebe, A. Impact of individual and combined influence of large-scale climatic oscillations on Indian summer monsoon rainfall extremes. Clim Dyn 60, 2957–2981 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-022-06477-w

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