Abstract
The large ensembles of the IPSL-CM6A-LR model output for the historical forcing experiment were employed to investigate the role of internal variability in the formation of the recent “warm Arctic–cold Eurasia” trend pattern in winter surface air temperature (SAT). The ensemble-mean SAT shows a positive trend over Arctic during 1990–2014, indicating a positive contribution of anthropogenic forcing to the warming Arctic. Over the region of central Eurasia, the ensemble-mean SAT trend is opposite to the observed trend. The winter SAT trends display remarkable inter-member diversity over the Barents–Kara Seas (BKS) region and central Eurasia, suggesting an important role played by internal variability. In addition to anthropogenic forcing, the results suggest that the barotropic anticyclone over northern Eurasia arising from internal variability can also contribute positively to the warming anomalies over the BKS region. On the other hand, through a fingerprint pattern matching method, it is found that the observed cooling trend over central Eurasia tends to be predominantly due to the internal variability. Finally, the results estimate that the internal variability can contribute to about 50–60% of the observed warming trend over the BKS region.
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Acknowledgements
The authors are grateful to two anonymous referees for their constructive comments. This study was supported jointly by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41721004 and 41975051), the Chinese Academy of Sciences Key Research Program of Frontier Sciences (QYZDY-SSW-DQC024), and the Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Climate Change.
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Wang, S., Chen, W. Impact of internal variability on recent opposite trends in wintertime temperature over the Barents–Kara Seas and central Eurasia. Clim Dyn 58, 2941–2956 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06077-0
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06077-0