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Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia and its prediction in ACCESS-S1 during spring and summer

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Abstract

We assess the ability of the Bureau of Meteorology’s ACCESS-S1 dynamical forecast system to simulate and predict extreme fire weather over Australia during austral spring (SON) and summer (DJF) on subseasonal timescales. Specifically, we focus on the roles of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), Southern Annular Mode (SAM), Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO), and two modes of persistent high-pressure in the Australian region characterised as (i) split-flow blocking highs and (ii) subtropical ridge Tasman highs (STRH). The observed likelihood of extreme fire weather increases over most of Australia in association with El Niño, the positive IOD, negative SAM and low split-flow blocking, in both seasons. These increases are generally largest in SON over the southeast. Notable increases in the likelihood of extreme fire weather also occur north of 30° S during low STRH activity, and over the southeast during MJO phase 3. Using retrospective forecasts at lead times of 2–3 weeks for the period 1990–2012, we show that ACCESS-S1 simulates reasonably well the observed modulation of extreme weekly-mean fire weather by each climate driver, however the simulated changes in probabilities are often weaker than those observed. Each climate driver plays an important role in providing predictive skill for regions where ACCESS-S1 captures a high likelihood of experiencing extreme fire weather conditions. The results of this study highlight windows of forecast opportunity during active climate driver phases that can be useful to regional users in fire management, emergency services, health, national park management, and the agriculture and energy sectors.

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Data availability

Support for the AWAP gridded data, available in Jones et al. (2009), is provided by CSIRO and the Bureau of Meteorology. The AWAP data used in this paper are openly accessible from https://doi.org/10.4227/166/5a8647d1c23e0, under the CC BY-NC 4.0 International Licence. Support for the NNR1 gridded data, available in Kalnay et al. (1996), is provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, Colorado, USA. The NNR1 data used in this paper are openly accessible from https://psl.noaa.gov.

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Acknowledgements

This work is a collaboration between Research, Climate Services and Earth System Modelling at the Australian Bureau of Meteorology. The work was undertaken with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), which is supported by the Australian Government. We extend our thanks to Robin Wedd and Griffith Young for their work on the production and management of the ACCESS-S1 hindcasts, and to Harvey Ye, Andrew Dowdy and Chris Lucas for their work on the calculation of FFDI data at the Bureau of Meteorology. We are also grateful to Paul Fox-Hughes and Debra Hudson for generously giving their time to help improve the overall quality of this paper.

Funding

The work was undertaken with the assistance of resources from the National Computational Infrastructure (NCI), which is supported by the Australian Government.

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  1. Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, TAS, Australia

    Andrew G. Marshall

  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia

    Paul A. Gregory, Catherine O. de Burgh-Day & Morwenna Griffiths

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Marshall, A.G., Gregory, P.A., de Burgh-Day, C.O. et al. Subseasonal drivers of extreme fire weather in Australia and its prediction in ACCESS-S1 during spring and summer. Clim Dyn 58, 523–553 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05920-8

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