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Multi-week prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation with ACCESS-S1

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Abstract

We assess the ability of the Bureau of Meteorology’s new ACCESS-S1 dynamical forecast system to predict the MJO using retrospective forecasts for the period 1990–2012. Compared to the benchmark POAMA-2 system, ACCESS-S1 demonstrates improved skill in predicting the ensemble mean bivariate RMM index by about 4 days lead time in austral summer and 5 days in boreal summer. Probabilistic forecast scores further demonstrate improved skill in predicting MJO amplitude by at least 7 days, and MJO phase by about 9 days. However, the ensemble from ACCESS-S1 for the MJO is underdispersed, indicating further gains in forecast skill can still be achieved. Improvements in the regional depiction of MJO rainfall in ACCESS-S1 over POAMA-2 include a more realistic southward extension of austral summer rainfall over Northern Australia, and a better overall spatial distribution and eastward extension of boreal summer rainfall over the tropical Indo-Pacific region. Both models depict well the northward propagation of boreal summer rainfall over the Indian Ocean warm pool. Overall, ACCESS-S1 simulates the MJO signature in global rainfall at least as well as, if not better than, POAMA-2.

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Acknowledgements

All data for this paper is properly cited and referred to in the reference list. We thank Debra Hudson and Guomin Wang for reviewing earlier versions of this manuscript. Support for this work was provided by the Managing Climate Variability Program of Grains Research and Development Corporation (Grant no. MCV00041), and by the Australian Government Department of Agriculture and Water Resources as part of its Rural Research and Development for Profit programme.

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  1. Bureau of Meteorology, Hobart, TAS, Australia

    Andrew G. Marshall

  2. Bureau of Meteorology, Docklands, VIC, Australia

    Harry H. Hendon

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Correspondence to Andrew G. Marshall.

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Marshall, A.G., Hendon, H.H. Multi-week prediction of the Madden–Julian oscillation with ACCESS-S1. Clim Dyn 52, 2513–2528 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4272-6

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