Abstract
Indian summer monsoon of 2015 was deficient with prominence of short-lived (long-lived) active (break) spells. The real-time extended range forecasts disseminated by Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology using an indigenous ensemble prediction system (EPS) based on National Center for Environmental Predictions’s climate forecast system could broadly predict these intraseasonal fluctuations at shorter time leads (i.e. up to 10 days), but failed to predict at longer leads (15–20 days). Considering the multi-scale nature of Indian Summer Monsoon system, this particular study aims to examine the inability of the EPS in predicting the active/break episodes at longer leads from the perspective of non-linear scale interaction between the synoptic, intraseasonal and seasonal scale. It is found that the 2015 monsoon season was dominated by synoptic scale disturbances that can hinder the prediction on extended range. Further, the interaction between synoptic scale disturbances and low frequency mode was prominent during the season, which might have contributed to the reduced prediction skill at longer leads.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Abhilash S, Sahai AK, Borah N et al (2015) Improved spread–error relationship and probabilistic prediction from CFS based grand ensemble prediction system. J Appl Meteorol Clim 54:1569–1578
Agarwal NK, Naik SS, De S, Sahai AK (2016) Why are the Indian monsoon transients short-lived and less intensified during droughts vis-à-vis good monsoon years? An inspection through scale interactive energy exchanges in frequency domain. Int J Climatol 36:2958–2978. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4531
Borah N, Sahai AK, Chattopadhyay R et al (2013) A self-organizing map-based ensemble forecast system for extended range prediction of active/break cycles of Indian summer monsoon. J Geophys Res Atmos 118:9022–9034. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50688
Borah N, Sahai AK, Abhilash S et al (2015) An assessment of real-time extended range forecast of 2013 Indian summer monsoon. Int J Climatol 35:2860–2876. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4178
De S (2010) Role of nonlinear scale interactions in limiting dynamical prediction of lower tropospheric boreal summer intraseasonal oscillations. J Geophys Res Atmos 115:D21127. https://doi.org/10.1029/2010JD013955
Dee DP, Uppala SM, Simmons AJ et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Q J R Meteorol Soc 137:553–597. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.828
Eckert C, Latif M (1997) Predictability of a stochastically forced hybrid coupled model of El Niño. J Clim 10:1488–1504. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010<1488:POASFH>2.0.CO;2
Goswami BN (1995) A Multiscale interaction model for the origin of the tropospheric QBO. J Clim 8:524–534. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<0524:AMIMFT>2.0.CO;2
Goswami BN (1998) Interannual variations of indian summer monsoon in a GCM: external conditions versus internal feedbacks. J Clim 11:501–522. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<0501:IVOISM>2.0.CO;2
Goswami BN (2012) South Asian monsoon. Intraseasonal variability in the atmosphere–ocean climate system, 2nd edn. Springer, Berlin, pp 19–61
Goswami BN, Ajayamohan RS, Xavier PK, Sengupta D (2003) Clustering of synoptic activity by Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Geophys Res Lett 30:1431. https://doi.org/10.1029/2002GL016734
Gruber A, Kruger AF (1984) The status of the NOAA outgoinglongwave radiation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 65:958–962
Hasselmann K (1976) Stochastic climate models Part I. Theory. Tellus 28:473–485. https://doi.org/10.1111/j.2153-3490.1976.tb00696.x
Hayashi Y (1980) Estimation of nonlinear energy transfer spectra by the cross-spectral method. J Atmos Sci 37:299–307. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1980)037<0299:EONETS>2.0.CO;2
IMD monsoon report (2015) (Document no.: ESSO/IMD/SYNOPTIC MET/01(2016)/20)
Kirtman BP, Schopf PS (1998) Decadal variability in ENSO predictability and prediction. J Clim 11:2804–2822. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011<2804:DVIEPA>2.0.CO;2
Kriplani R, Kulkarni A, Sabade SS et al (2004) Intra-seasonal oscillations during monsoon 2002 and 2003. Curr Sci 87:327–331
Krishnamurti TN, Bhalme HN (1976) Oscillations of a monsoon system. Part I. Observational aspects. J Atmos Sci 33:1937–1954. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0469(1976)033<1937:OOAMSP>2.0.CO;2
Krishnamurti TN, Krishnamurti R, Simon A et al (2016) A mechanism of the MJO invoking scale interactions. Meteorol Monogr 56:5.1–5.16. https://doi.org/10.1175/AMSMONOGRAPHS-D-15-0009.1
Madden R, Julian P (1972) Description of global scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40–50 day period. J Atmos Sci 29:1109–1123
Madden RA, Julian PR (1994) Observations of the 40–50-day tropical oscillation—a review. Mon Weather Rev 122:814–837
Madden RA, Shea DJ (1978) Estimates of the natural variability of time-averaged temperatures over the United States. Mon Weather Rev 106:1695–1703. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1978)106<1695:EOTNVO>2.0.CO;2
Majda AJ, Stechman SN (2009) The skeleton of tropical intraseasonal oscillations. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106:8417–8422
Mitra AK, Bohra AK, Rajeevan MN, Krishnamurti TN (2009) Daily Indian precipitation analysis formed from a merge of rain-gauge data with the TRMM TMPA satellite-derived rainfall estimates. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 87A:265–279
Moron V, Robertson A, Pai DS (2017) On the spatial coherence of sub-seasonal to seasonal Indian rainfall anomalies. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3520-5
Neena JM, Goswami BN (2010) Extension of potential predictability of Indian summer monsoon dry and wet spells in recent decades. Q J R Meteorol Soc 136:583–592. https://doi.org/10.1002/qj.595
Penland C, Matrosova L (1994) A balance condition for stochastic numerical models with application to the El Niño-southern oscillation. J Clim 7:1352–1372. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1994)007<1352:ABCFSN>2.0.CO;2
Penland C, Sardeshmukh PD (1995) The optimal growth of tropical sea surface temperature anomalies. J Clim 8:1999–2024. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0442(1995)008<1999:TOGOTS>2.0.CO;2
Rajeevan M, Gadgil S, Bhate J (2010) Active and break spells of the Indian summer monsoon. J Earth Sys Sci 119:229–247
Saha S, Coauthors (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057
Sahai AK, Sharmila S, Abhilash S et al (2013) Simulation and Extended range prediction of monsoon intraseasonal oscillations in NCEP CFS/GFS version 2 framework. Curr Sci 104:1394–1408
Sahai AK, Chattopadhyay R, Joseph S et al (2014) A new method to compute the principal components from self-organizing maps: an application to monsoon intraseasonal oscillations. Int J Climatol 34:2925–2939. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3885
Sahai AK, Chattopadhyay R, Joseph S et al (2015) Real-time performance of a multi-model ensemble-based extended range forecast system in predicting the 2014 monsoon season based on NCEP-CFSv2. Curr Sci 109:1802–1813
Saltzman B (1957) Equations governing the energetics of the larger scales of atmospheric turbulence in the domain of wave number. J Atmos Sci J Meteorol 14:513–523
Sharmila S, Joseph S, Chattopadhyay R et al (2015) Asymmetry in space–time characteristics of Indian summer monsoon intraseasonal oscillations during extreme years: role of seasonal mean state. Int J Climatol. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4100
Sikka DR, Gadgil S (1980) On the maximum cloud zone and the ITCZ over Indian, longitudes during the southwest monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 108:1840–1853. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0493(1980)108<1840:OTMCZA>2.0.CO;2
Stockdale TN, Alves O, Boer G et al (2010) Understanding and predicting seasonal-to-interannual climate variability—the producer perspective. Procedia Environ Sci 1:55–80. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.proenv.2010.09.006
Suhas E, Neena J, Goswami B (2012) An Indian monsoon intraseasonal oscillations (MISO) index for real time monitoring and forecast verification. Clim Dyn. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1462-5
Waliser DE, Stern W, Schubert S, Lau KM (2003) Dynamic predictability of intraseasonal variability associated with the Asian summer monsoon. Q J R Meteorol Soc 129:2897–2925. https://doi.org/10.1256/qj.02.51
Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2004) An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932
Yasunari T (1979) Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the northern hemisphere summer monsoon. J Meteorol Soc Jpn Ser II 57:227–242
Acknowledgements
IITM is a research Institution, fully supported by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India, New Delhi. The reanalysis datasets from NCEP and their technical support on CFS model are duly acknowledged. Thanks are also due to IMD for TRMM and Rain gauge merged daily rainfall data.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Electronic supplementary material
Below is the link to the electronic supplementary material.
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Abhilash, S., Mandal, R., Dey, A. et al. Role of enhanced synoptic activity and its interaction with intra-seasonal oscillations on the lower extended range prediction skill during 2015 monsoon season. Clim Dyn 51, 3435–3446 (2018). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4089-3