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Trend and recovery of the total ozone column in South America and Antarctica

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Abstract

South America is one of the most vulnerable areas to stratospheric ozone depletion; consequently, an increased amount of UV radiation reaches the Earth’s surface in this region. In this study, we analyzed the long-term trend in the total ozone column (TOC) over the southern part of the South American continent from 1980 to 2009. The database used was obtained by combining several satellite measurements of the TOC on a 1° (latitude) × 1.25° (longitude) grid. Analysis of the long-term trend was performed by applying the Theil-Sen estimator and the Mann–Kendall significance test to the deseasonalized time series. The long-term trend was also analyzed over several highly populated urban zones in the study area. Finally, multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling was used to identify and quantify the drivers of interannual variability in the TOC over the study area with a pixel-by-pixel approach. The results showed a decrease in the TOC ranging from −0.3 to −4% dec−1 from 1980 to 2009. On a decadal timescale, there is significant variability in this trend, and a decrease of more than −10% dec−1 was found at high latitudes (1980–1989). However, the trends obtained over much of the study area were not statistically significant. Considering the period from 1980 to 1995, we found a decrease in the TOC of −2.0 ± 0.6% dec−1 at latitudes below 40° S and −6.9 ± 2.0% dec−1 at latitudes above 40° S, for a 99.9% confidence level over most of the study area. Analysis of the period from 1996 to 2009 showed a statistically significant increase of 2.3 ± 0.1% dec−1 at high latitudes (> 60° S), confirming the initial TOC recovery in the Antarctic. Despite evidence for initial recovery of the TOC in some parts of the study area between 1996 and 2009, the long-term increase from September to November is not yet statistically significant. In addition, large parts of the study area and most of the urban areas continue to show a decreasing trend in the TOC. The MLR results show that at high latitudes, the main driver of interannual variability in the TOC is the total effective amount of halogens, followed by the eddy heat flux.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge financial support from postdoctoral project No. 3140474, awarded by the National Fund for Scientific and Technological Research (FONDECYT, in Spanish), as well as partial financial support from the Vicerrectoría de Investigación y Desarrollo, Universidad de Chile (ENLACE-FONDECYT/VID-2015) and Research Support Program, Facultad de Ciencias, Universidad de Chile (PAIFAC/2015). Finally, we thank Greg Bodeker of Bodeker Scientific for providing the combined total ozone column database and at Climate Prediction Center (CPC) of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for providing the eddy heat flux dataset.

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  1. Department of Chemistry and Center for Environmental Sciences, Faculty of Science, University of Chile, Las Palmeras 3425, PO 7800003, Ñuñoa, Santiago, Chile

    Richard Toro A., Consuelo Araya, Raúl G. E. Morales & Manuel A. Leiva G.

  2. Faculty of Agricultural Sciences, University of Chile, Av. Santa Rosa, 11315, PO 8820808, La Pintana, Santiago, Chile

    Felipe Labra O. & Luis Morales

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  1. Richard Toro A.
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Toro A., R., Araya, C., Labra O., F. et al. Trend and recovery of the total ozone column in South America and Antarctica. Clim Dyn 49, 3735–3752 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3540-1

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