Abstract
A 20-km regional climate model (RCM) dynamically downscaled the Community Climate System Model version 4 (CCSM4) to compare 32-year historical and future “end-of-the-century” climatologies of the North American Monsoon (NAM). CCSM4 and other phase 5 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project models have indicated a delayed NAM and overall general drying trend. Here, we test the suggested mechanism for this drier NAM where increasing atmospheric static stability and reduced early-season evapotranspiration under global warming will limit early-season convection and compress the mature-season of the NAM. Through our higher resolution RCM, we found the role of accelerated evaporation under a warmer climate is likely understated in coarse resolution models such as CCSM4. Improving the representation of mesoscale interactions associated with the Gulf of California and surrounding topography produced additional surface evaporation, which overwhelmed the convection-suppressing effects of a warmer troposphere. Furthermore, the improved land–sea temperature gradient helped drive stronger southerly winds and greater moisture transport. Finally, we addressed limitations from inherent CCSM4 biases through a form of mean bias correction, which resulted in a more accurate seasonality of the atmospheric thermodynamic profile. After bias correction, greater surface evaporation from average peak GoC SSTs of 32 °C compared to 29 °C from the original CCSM4 led to roughly 50 % larger changes to low-level moist static energy compared to that produced by the downscaled original CCSM4. The increasing destabilization of the NAM environment produced onset dates that were one to 2 weeks earlier in the core of the NAM and northern extent, respectively. Furthermore, a significantly more vigorous NAM signal was produced after bias correction, with >50 mm month−1 increases to the June–September precipitation found along east and west coasts of Mexico and into parts of Texas. A shift towards more extreme daily precipitation was found in both downscaled climatologies, with the bias-corrected climatology containing a much more apparent and extreme shift.
This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adams D, Comrie A (1997) The North American monsoon. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 78:2197–2213. doi:10.1175/1520-77(1997)078<2197:TNAM>2.0.CO;2
Anderson BT, Roads JO, Chen SC (2000) Large-scale forcing of summertime monsoon surges over the Gulf of California and the southwestern United States. J Geophys Res Atmos 105(D19):24455–24467. doi:10.1029/2000jd900337
Berbery EH (2001) Mesoscale moisture analysis of the North American monsoon. J Clim 14(2):121–137. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2001)013%3C0121:mmaotn%3E2.0.co;2
Broccoli AJ, Manabe S (1992) The effects of orography on midlatitude Northern Hemisphere dry climates. J Clim 5(11):1181–1201. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1992)005%3C1181:teooom%3E2.0.co;2
Bukovsky MS, Gochis DJ, Mearns LO (2013) Towards assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American monsoon: current climate simulations. J Clim 26:8802–8826. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00538.1
Bukovsky MS, Carrillo CM, Gochis DJ, Hammerling DM, McCrary RR, Mearns LO (2015) Toward assessing NARCCAP regional climate model credibility for the North American monsoon: future climate simulations. J Clim 28(17):6707–6728. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-14-00695.1
Castro CL, Chang H-I, Dominguez F, Carrillo C, Schemm J-K, Henry Juang H-M (2012) Can a regional climate model improve the ability to forecast the North American monsoon? J Clim 25:8212–8237. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-11-00441.1
Collier JC, Zhang GJ (2007) Effects of increased horizontal resolution on simulation of the North American monsoon in the NCAR CAM3: an evaluation based on surface, satellite, and reanalysis data. J Clim 20(9):1843–1861. doi:10.1175/jcli4099.1
Cook BI, Seager R (2013) The response of the North American monsoon to increased greenhouse gas forcing. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(4):1690–1699. doi:10.1002/jgrd.50111
Dominguez F, Kumar P, Vivoni ER (2008) Precipitation recycling variability and ecoclimatological stability—a study using NARR data. Part II: North American monsoon region. J Clim 21(20):5187–5203. doi:10.1175/2008jcli1760.1
Douglas MW, Maddox R, Howard K, Reyes S (1993) The Mexican Monsoon. J Clim 6:1665–1677. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1993)006%3C1665:tmm%3E2.0.co;2
Douglas MW, Maddox R, Howard K, Reyes S (1995) The summertime low level jet over the Gulf of California. Mon Weather Rev 123:2334–2347. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1995)123%3C2334:tslljo%3E2.0.co;2
Gao X, Shi Y, Song R, Giorgi F, Wang Y, Zhang D (2008) Reduction of future monsoon precipitation over China: comparison between a high resolution RCM simulation and the driving GCM. Meteorol Atmos Phys 100(1–4):73–86. doi:10.1007/s00703-008-0296-5
Geil KL, Serra YL, Zeng X (2013) Assessment of CMIP5 model simulations of the North American monsoon system. J Clim 26:8787–8801. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-13-00044.1
Gent PR, Danabasoglu G, Donner LJ, Holland MM, Hunke EC, Jayne SR, Lawrence DM, Neale RB, Rasch PJ, Vertenstein M et al (2011) The Community Climate System Model Version 4. J Clim 24:4973–4991. doi:10.1175/2011jcli4083.1
Giorgi F, Mearns LO (1991) Approaches to the simulation of regional climate change. Rev Geophys 29:191–216. doi:10.1029/90rg02636
Gutzler DS, Long LN, Schemm J, Roy SB, Bosilovich M, Collier JC, Kanamitsu M, Kelly P, Lawrence D, Lee M-I et al (2009) Simulations of the 2004 North American monsoon: NAMAP2. J Clim 22:6716–6740. doi:10.1175/2009jcli3138.1
Higgins RW, Yao Y, Wang XL (1997) Influence of the North American monsoon system on the US summer precipitation regime. J Clim 10:2600–2622. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1997)010%3C2600:iotnam%3E2.0.co;2
Higgins RW, Mo KC, Yao Y (1998) Interannual variability of the U.S. Summer Precipitation regime with emphasis on the Southwestern Monsoon. J Clim 11:2582–2606. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1998)011%3C2582:ivotus%3E2.0.co;2
Higgins RW, Ahijevych D, Amador J, Barros A, Berbery EH, Caetano E, Carbone R, Ciesielski P, Cifelli R, Cortez-Vazquez M et al (2006) The NAME 2004 field campaign and modeling strategy. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 87:79–94. doi:10.1175/bams-87-1-79
Lee MI, Schubert SD, Suarez MJ, Held IM, Kumar A, Bell TL et al (2007) Sensitivity to horizontal resolution in the AGCM simulations of warm season diurnal cycle of precipitation over the United States and northern Mexico. J Clim 20(9):1862–1881. doi:10.1175/jcli4090.1
Liverman DM, Merideth R (2002) Climate and society in the US Southwest: the context for a regional assessment. Clim Res 21(3):199–218. doi:10.3354/cr021199
Magaña VO, Conde C (2000) Climate and freshwater resources in northern Mexico: Sonora, a case study. Environ Monit Assess 61(1):167–185. doi:10.1023/a:1006399025537
McGregor JL (1997) Regional climate modelling. Meteorol Atmos Phys 63(1–2):105–117. doi:10.1007/bf01025367
Mearns LO, Gutowski WJ, Jones R, Leung L-Y, McGinnis S, Nunes AMB, Qian Y (2009) A regional climate change assessment program for North America. Eos. Trans Am Geo-phys Union 90:311–312. doi:10.1029/2009eo360002
Meyer JDD, Jin J (2015) Bias correction of the CCSM4 for improved regional climate modeling of the North American monsoon. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-015-2744-5
Misra V, Kanamitsu M (2004) Anomaly nesting: a methodology to downscale seasonal climate simulations from AGCMs. J Clim 17:3249–3262. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2004)017%3C3249:anamtd%3E2.0.co;2
Mitchell DL, Ivanova D, Rabin R, Brown TJ, Redmond K (2002) Gulf of California sea surface temperatures and the North American monsoon: mechanistic implications from observations. J Clim 15(17):2261–2281. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(2002)015%3C2261:gocsst%3E2.0.co;2
Prakash S, Mahesh C, Gairola RM, Pokhrel S (2011) Surface freshwater flux estimation using TRMM measurements over the tropical oceans. Atmos Clim Sci 1(04):225. doi:10.4236/acs.2011.14025
Ray AJ, Garfin GM, Wilder M, Vásquez-León M, Lenart M, Comrie AC (2007) Applications of monsoon research: opportunities to inform decision making and reduce regional vulnerability. J Clim 20:1608–1627. doi:10.1175/JCLI4098.1
Saha S, Moorthi S, Pan H-L, Wu X, Wang J, Nadiga S, Tripp P, Kistler R, Woollen J, Behringer D et al (2010) The NCEP climate forecast system reanalysis. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 91:1015–1057. doi:10.1175/2010bams3001.1
Seager R, Ting M, Held I, Kushnir Y, Lu J, Vecchi G et al (2007) Model projections of an imminent transition to a more arid climate in southwestern North America. Science 316(5828):1181–1184. doi:10.1126/science.1139601
Seth A, Rauscher SA, Rojas M, Giannini A, Camargo SJ (2011) Enhanced spring convective barrier for monsoons in a warmer world? Clim Change 104(2):403–414. doi:10.1007/s10584-010-9973-8
Seth A, Rauscher SA, Biasutti M, Giannini A, Camargo SJ, Rojas M (2013) CMIP5 projected changes in the annual cycle of precipitation in monsoon regions. J Clim 26(19):7328–7351. doi:10.1175/jcli-d-12-00726.1
Skamarock WC, Klemp JB, Dudhia J, Gill DO, Barker DM, Wang W, Powers JG (2005) A description of the advanced research WRF version 2 (No. NCAR/TN-468+STR). National Center For Atmospheric Research Boulder Co Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Div
Stensrud DJ, Gall RL, Nordquist MK (1997) Surges over the Gulf of California during the Mexican monsoon. Mon Weather Rev 125(4):417–437. doi:10.1175/1520-0493(1997)125%3C0417:sotgoc%3E2.0.co;2
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds J, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Thomson A, Hibbard K, Hurtt GC, Kram T, Krey V, Lamarque J-F et al (2011) The representative concentration pathways: an overview. Clim Change 109:5–31. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0148-z
Acknowledgments
This work was supported by the National Science Foundation Microsystem Program Project NSFEF-1065730. The authors would like to acknowledge and thank Drs. Lawrence Hipps, Scott Jones, and Bruce Bugbee of the Utah State University department of Plants, Soils and Climate for their comments and guidance regarding this work, as well as Dr. Patrick Belmont of the Utah State University Department of Watershed Science. We also wish to extend our appreciation to the anonymous reviewers who helped during the review process.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Meyer, J.D.D., Jin, J. The response of future projections of the North American monsoon when combining dynamical downscaling and bias correction of CCSM4 output. Clim Dyn 49, 433–447 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3352-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3352-8