Trends and variability in the global dataset of glacier mass balance

Abstract

Glacier mass balance (i.e., accumulation and ablation) is the most direct connection between climate and glaciers. We perform a comprehensive evaluation of the available global network of mass-balance measurements. Each mass-balance time series is decomposed into a trend and the variability about that trend. Observed variability ranges by an order of magnitude, depending on climate setting (i.e., maritime vs continental). For the great majority of glaciers, variability is well characterized by normally distributed, random fluctuations that are uncorrelated between seasons, or in subsequent years. The magnitude of variability for both summer and winter is well correlated with mean wintertime balance, which reflects the climatic setting. Collectively, summertime variability exceeds wintertime variability, except for maritime glaciers. Trends in annual mass balance are generally negative, driven primarily by summertime changes. Approximately 25 % of annual-mean records show statistically significant negative trends when judged in isolation. In aggregate, the global trend is negative and significant. We further evaluate the magnitude of trends relative to the variability. We find that, on average, trends are approximately −0.2 standard deviations per decade, although there is a broad spread among individual glaciers. Finally, for two long records we also compare mass-balance trends and variability with nearby meteorological stations. We find significant differences among stations meaning caution is warranted in interpreting any point measurement (such as mass balance) as representative of region-wide behavior. By placing observed trends in the context of natural variability, the results are useful for interpreting past glacial history, and for placing constraints on future predictability.