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Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations

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Abstract

Investigation of past tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Western North Pacific (WNP) is potentially helpful to enable better understanding of future TC behaviors. In this study, we examine variations in large-scale environmental factors important to TC genesis in the last millennium simulations from the Paleoclimate Modelling Intercomparison Project Phase 3 (PMIP3). The results show that potential intensity, a theoretical prediction of the maximum TC intensity, is increased relative to the last millennium in the north part of the WNP in the Medieval Climate Anomaly (MCA; 950–1200 AD) while it is decreased in the Little Ice Age (LIA; 1600–1850 AD). Vertical wind shear that generally inhibits TC genesis is enhanced (reduced) to the south of 20°N and is reduced (enhanced) to the north in the MCA (LIA). Relative humidity (at 600 hPa) that measures the mid-tropospheric moisture content broadly shows an increase (decrease) in the MCA (LIA). A genesis potential index indicates that conditions are generally favorable (unfavorable) for TC formation in the WNP in the MCA (LIA), especially in the northern part. Taking changes in steering flows into account, there may be an increasing (decreasing) favorability for storm strikes in East Asia in the MCA (LIA). The estimated TC activity is consistent with the geological proxies in Japan, but contradicts with the typhoon records in southern China and Taiwan. This model-data discrepancy is attributed to the limitations in both simulations and reconstructions.

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Acknowledgments

We thank Robert Korty for the guidance on genesis index and Kerry Emanuel for making available his potential intensity algorithm. We thank the two anonymous reviewers for their constructive comments, which significantly improved this paper. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41402158, 41472160, and 41505068). We acknowledge the modeling groups (Table 1) for making their simulations available for analysis, the Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison (PCMDI) and the British Atmospheric Data Centre (BADC) for collecting and archiving the CMIP5 model output, and the WCRP’s Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM) for organizing the model data analysis activity. For CMIP5 the U.S. Department of Energy’s Program for Climate Model Diagnosis and Intercomparison provides coordinating support and led development of software infrastructure in partnership with the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals, U.S. Department of Energy.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Nansen-Zhu International Research Centre, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 40 Huayanli, Chaoyang District, Beijing, 100029, China

    Qing Yan & Zhongshi Zhang

  2. State Key Laboratory of Severe Weather, Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, 100081, China

    Ting Wei

  3. Department of Atmospheric Science, School of Environmental Studies, China University of Geosciences, Wuhan, 430074, China

    Zhongshi Zhang

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  1. Qing Yan
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Correspondence to Qing Yan.

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Yan, Q., Wei, T. & Zhang, Z. Variations in large-scale tropical cyclone genesis factors over the western North Pacific in the PMIP3 last millennium simulations. Clim Dyn 48, 957–970 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3120-9

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