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Two key parameters for the El Niño continuum: zonal wind anomalies and Western Pacific subsurface potential temperature

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Abstract

Different types of El Niño (EN) events have recently been discussed. Based on NCEP–NOAA reanalysis data this analysis explores a number of key parameters that cause a range of EN types over the period 1980–2013. EN events are divided into three types depending on the spatial and temporal evolution of the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTA): Central Pacific (CPEN), Eastern Pacific (EPEN), and Hybrid (HBEN). We find that EN is a continuous spectrum of events with CPEN and EPEN as the end members. This spectrum mainly depends on two key parameters: the 130°E–160°E Western Pacific 5–250 m subsurface oceanic potential temperature anomaly about 1 year before the EN peak (typically January and February), and the 140°E–160°W cumulative zonal wind anomaly (ZWA) between onset and peak of the EN event. Using these two parameters, about 70 % of the total variance of the maximum SSTA realised in different Niño regions can already be explained up to 6 months before the maximum SSTA occurs. This offers a rather simple potential for ENSO prediction. A necessary condition for the evolution of an EPEN, the Western Pacific is in the recharged state. Strong and sustained westerly wind anomalies in Western Pacific can then trigger a Kelvin wave propagating to the eastern Pacific. Both parameters, potential temperature and zonal wind anomaly, constructively interfere. For a CPEN, these parameters are much less important. Kelvin wave propagation is not involved in the evolution of the event. Instead, the Central Pacific warming is caused locally by a zonal advection feedback and local air–sea interaction as already demonstrated in previous studies. The HBEN occurs when both parameters interfere in different ways: (1) Western Pacific is weakly charged, but strong westerly ZWA are observed that reduce the equatorial upwelling in the Central Pacific while the triggered Kelvin wave is too weak to have a significant effect; (2) Western Pacific is strongly charged but only weak westerly ZWA develop, so that the resulting Kelvin wave cannot fully extend into the eastern-most Pacific.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Atmospheric Science, University of Cambridge, Downing Place, Cambridge, CB2 3EN, UK

    Andy Wang-Chun Lai, Michael Herzog & Hans-F. Graf

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  1. Andy Wang-Chun Lai
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  2. Michael Herzog
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  3. Hans-F. Graf
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Correspondence to Andy Wang-Chun Lai.

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Lai, A.WC., Herzog, M. & Graf, HF. Two key parameters for the El Niño continuum: zonal wind anomalies and Western Pacific subsurface potential temperature. Clim Dyn 45, 3461–3480 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-015-2550-0

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