Abstract
Mega-El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), as two principal components of the global air-sea coupling system, may have synchronous or out-synchronous fluctuations during different epochs. Understanding such connection change is instrumental for climate prediction, particularly the decadal prediction. Results in this study show that mega-ENSO has experienced a notable inter-decadal change in its linkage with the winter NAO during the past 56 years: mega-ENSO was significantly correlated with the NAO during 1957–1981 (or synchronous epoch), while such correlation has broken down since 1982 (or out-synchronous epoch). This marked change might be attributed to a sea surface temperature (SST) forcing change in the North Atlantic, based on the observational and numerical evidences in this study. The synchronous epoch is concurrent with the anomalous tropical North Atlantic (TNA) SST forcing, whereas the out-synchronous epoch is associated with the anomalous extra-tropical North Atlantic (XNA) SST forcing. Two possible reasons may explain how the synchronous behaviors between mega-ENSO and the NAO were tied to the TNA SST anomaly (SSTA). There is a positive feedback between the TNA SSTA and the NAO-like atmosphere anomalies, which helps to “prolong” the NAO impacts from the developing phase through mature phase of mega-ENSO. Additionally, the TNA SSTA itself may induce a NAO-like atmosphere anomaly. Since 1982, the TNA SSTA has been replaced by the XNA SSTA and the latter primarily favors a NAO-neutral state in the atmosphere, which ends the synchronous epoch.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Branstator G (1992) The maintenance of low-frequency atmospheric anomalies. J Atmos Sci 49:1924–1946
Branstator G (1995) Organization of storm track anomalies by recurring low-frequency circulation anomalies. J Atmos Sci 52:207–226
Branston AG, Livezey RE (1987) Classification, seasonality and persistence of low-frequency atmospheric circulation patterns. Mon Weather Rev 115:1083–1126
Cai M, Mak M (1990) Symbolic relation between planetary and synoptic scale waves. J Atmos Sci 47:2953–2968
Chang C-P, Zhang Y, Li T (2000) Interannual and interdecadal variation of the East Asian summer monsoon rainfall and tropical SSTs. Part 1: roles of the subtropical ridge. J Clim 13:4310–4325
Charney JG, Shukla J (1981) Predictability of monsoons. In: Lighthill J, Pearce RP (eds) Monsoon dynamics. Cambridge University Press, New York, pp 99–109
Cohen J, Foster J, Barlow M, Saito K, Jones J (2010) Winter 2009–2010: a case study of an extreme Arctic Oscillation event. Geophys Res Lett 37:L17707
Dee DP, Uppala S, Simmons A et al (2011) The ERA-Interim reanalysis: configuration and performance of the data assimilation system. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 137:553–597
Deser C, Timlin M (1997) Atmosphere-ocean interaction on weekly timescales in the North Atlantic and Pacific. J Clim 10:393–408
Douglass DH (2010) Topology of Earth’s climate indices and phase-locked states. Phys Let A 374:4164–4168
Folland CK, Knight J, Linderholm HW, Fereday D, Ineson S, Hurrell JW (2009) The summer North Atlantic Oscillation: past, present and future. J Clim 22:1082–1103
Gill AE (1980) Some simple solutions for heat-induced tropical circulations. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 106:447–462
Grinsted A, Moore JC, Jevrejeva S (2004) Application of the cross wavelet transform and wavelet coherence togeophysical time series. Nonlinear Proc Geophys 11:561–566
Hall NMJ (2000) A simple GCM based on dry dynamics and constant forcing. J Atmos Sci 57:1557–1572
Hoskins BJ, Karoly DJ (1981) The steady linear response of a spherical atmosphere to thermal and orographic forcing. J Atmos Sci 38:1179–1196
Hoskins BJ, Simmons AJ (1975) A multi-layer spectral model and the semi-implicit method. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 101:637–655
Hurrell JW (1995) Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperature and precipitation. Science 269:676–679
Jin FF, Neelin JD, Ghil M (1994) El Niño on the devil’s staircase: annual subharmonic steps to chaos. Science 264:70–72
Jin FF, Pan L, Watanabe M (2006) Dynamics of synoptic eddy and low-frequency flow interaction. Part 1: a linear closure. J Atmos Sci 63:1677–1694
Karspeck AR, Cane MA (2002) Tropical Pacific 1976–1977 climate shift in a linear, wind-driven model. J Phys Oceanogr 32(8):2350–2360
Kug JS, Jin FF (2009) Left-hand rule for synoptic eddy feedback on low-frequency flow. Geophys Res Lett 36. doi:10.1029/2008GL036435
Lau NC (1988) Variability of the observed midlatitude storm tracks in relation to lowfrequency changes in the circulation pattern. J Atmos Sci 45:2718–2743
Lau NC, Nath MJ (1991) Variability of the baroclinic and barotropic transient eddy forcing associated with monthly changes in the midlatitude storm tracks. J Atmos Sci 48:2589–2613
Li J, Wu Z (2012) Importance of autumn Arctic sea ice to northern winter snowfall. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 109(28):1898. doi:10.1073/pnas.1205075109
Lin H, Derome J (1996) Changes in predictability associated with the PNA pattern. Tellus 48A:553–571
Lin H, Derome J (2004) Nonlinearity of extratropical response to tropical forcing. J Clim 17:2597–2608
Lin H, Wu Z (2011) Contribution of the autumn Tibetan Plateau snow cover to seasonal prediction of North American winter temperature. J Clim 24:2801–2813
Lorenz EN (1963) Deterministic nonperiodic flow. J Atmos Sci 20:130–141
Neelin JD, Battisti DS, Hirst AC, Jin FF, Wakata Y, Yamagata T, Zebiak S (1998) ENSO theory. Geophys Res 103(C7):14261–14290
Pan L (2005) Observed positive feedback between the NAO and the North Atlantic SSTA tripole. Geophys Res Lett 32:L06707. doi:10.1029/2005GL022427
Rasmusson EM, Carpenter TH (1982) Variations tropical sea surface temperature and surface wind fields associated with the Southern Oscillation/El Niño. Mon Weather Rev 110:354–384
Rogers JC (1984) The association between the North Atlantic Oscillation and the Southern Oscillation in the Northern Hemisphere. Mon Weather Rev 112:1999–2015
Ropelewski CF, Halpert MS (1986) North American Precipitation and Temperature Patterns Associated with the El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO). Mon Weather Rev 114:2352–2362
Simmons AJ, Wallace JM, Branstator GW (1983) Barotropic wave propagation and instability, and atmospheric teleconnection patterns. J Atmos Sci 40:1363–1392
Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA’s historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880–2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296
Swanson KL, Tsonis AA (2009) Has the climate recently shifted? Geophys Res Let 36:L06711. doi:10.1029/2008GL037022
Torrence C, Webster PJ (1999) Interdecadal changes in the ENSO–monsoon system. J Clim 12:2679–2690
Uppala SM, Kallberg PW, Simmons AJ et al (2005) The ERA-40 re-analysis. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 131:2961–3012. doi:10.1256/qj.04.176
Wang B, Wu RG, Fu XH (2000) Pacific-East Asia teleconnection: how does ENSO affect East Asian climate? J Clim 13:1517–1536
Wang B, Wu Z, Li J, Liu J, Chang CP, Ding YH, Wu GX (2008) How to measure the strength of the East Asian summer monsoon? J Clim 21:4449–4463
Wang B, Liu J, Kim HJ, Webster PJ, Yim SY, Xiang BQ (2013) Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon intensified by mega-El Niño/southern oscillation and Atlantic multidecadal oscillation. Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 14:5347–5352
Watanabe M, Nitta T (1998) Relative impact of snow and sea surface temperature anomalies on an extreme phase in the winter atmospheric circulation. J Clim 11:2837–2857
Watanabe M, Nitta T (1999) Decadal changes in the atmospheric circulation and associated surface climate variations in the North Hemisphere winter. J Clim 12:494–510
Wu Z, Li J (2008) Prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon interannual variations with the grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG (GAMIL). Adv Atmos Sci 25(3):387–394
Wu Z, Li J (2009) Seasonal prediction of the global precipitation annual modes with the grid-point atmospheric model of IAP LASG (GAMIL). Acta Meteor Sinica 23(4):428–437
Wu Z, Lin H (2012) Interdecadal variability of the ENSO-North Atlantic Oscillation connection in boreal summer. Quart J Roy Meteor Soc 138:1668–1675. doi:10.1002/qj.1889
Wu Z, Wang B, Li J, Jin FF (2009) An emperical seasonal prediction model of the East Asian summer monsoon using ENSO and NAO. J Geophys Res 114:D18120. doi:10.1029/2009JD011733
Wu Z, Li J, Jiang Z, He J (2011) Predictable climate dynamics of abnormal East Asian winter monsoon: once-in-a-century snowstorms in 2007/2008 winter. Clim Dyn 37:1661–1669
Zhang RH, Sumi A, Kimoto M (1996) Impact of El Niño on the East Asia Monsoon: a diagnostic study of the ‘86/87 and ‘91/92 events. J Meteor Soc Japan 74:49–62
Acknowledgments
We appreciate the ECMWF for providing the ERA-40 and ERA-interim re-analysis data. Zhiwei Wu is jointly supported by the Ministry of Science and Technology of China (Grant Nos. 2015CB453201, 2015CB953904) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 91437216 and 41205066). This is ESMC publication No. 0014.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Wu, Z., Zhang, P. Interdecadal variability of the mega-ENSO–NAO synchronization in winter. Clim Dyn 45, 1117–1128 (2015). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2361-8
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2361-8