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Influence of the warm pool and cold tongue El Niños on the following Caribbean rainy season rainfall

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Abstract

Caribbean rainfall and associated regional-scale ocean–atmosphere anomalies are analyzed during and after warm pool (WP) and cold tongue (CT) El Niño (EN) events (i.e. from the usual peak of EN events in boreal winter to next summer from 1950 to 2011). During and after a CT event, a north–south dipolar pattern with positive (negative) rainfall anomalies over the northern (southern) Caribbean during the boreal winter tends to reverse in spring, and then to vanish in summer. On the contrary, during and after a WP event, weak rainfall anomalies during the boreal winter intensify themselves from spring, with anomalous wet conditions over most of the Caribbean basin observed during summer, except over the eastern coast of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. The Caribbean rainfall anomalies associated with WP and CT events are shaped by competition between at least four different, but interrelated, mechanisms; (1) the near-equatorial large-scale subsidence anomaly over the equatorial Atlantic linked to the zonal adjustment of the Walker circulation; (2) the extra-tropical wave-like train combining positive phase of the Pacific/North American mode and negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation; (3) the wind-evaporation-sea surface temperature (SST) positive feedback coupling warmer-than-normal SST with weaker-than-normal low level easterlies over the tropical North Atlantic; and (4) the air-sea coupling between the speed of low level easterlies, including the Caribbean low level jet, and the SST anomaly (SSTA) gradient between the Caribbean basin and the eastern equatorial Pacific. It seems that Caribbean rainfall anomalies are shaped mostly by mechanisms (1–3) during CT events from the boreal winter to spring. These mechanisms seem less efficient during WP events when the atmospheric response seems driven mostly by mechanism (4), coupling positive west-east SSTA gradient with weaker-than-normal low level easterlies, and secondary by mechanism (3), from the boreal spring to summer.

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Acknowledgments

The authors appreciate two reviewers for their constructive suggestions which help us to improve the manuscript significantly.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Science and Technology, University of the West Indies, Cave Hill Campus, Bridgetown, Barbados

    Isabelle Gouirand

  2. CEREGE UM 34 CNRS, Aix Marseille Université, Aix en Provence, France

    Vincent Moron

  3. International Research Institute for Climate and Society, Columbia University, Palisades, NY, USA

    Vincent Moron

  4. Climate Prediction Center, NCEP/NWS/NOAA, 5830 University Research Court, College Park, MD, USA

    Zeng-Zhen Hu & Bhaskar Jha

  5. WYLE Science, Technology and Engineering Group, McLean, VA, USA

    Bhaskar Jha

Authors
  1. Isabelle Gouirand
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  2. Vincent Moron
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  3. Zeng-Zhen Hu
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  4. Bhaskar Jha
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Correspondence to Isabelle Gouirand.

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Gouirand, I., Moron, V., Hu, ZZ. et al. Influence of the warm pool and cold tongue El Niños on the following Caribbean rainy season rainfall. Clim Dyn 42, 919–929 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1753-5

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1753-5

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