Abstract
This is the second of the two-part paper series on the analysis and evaluation of the Fifth phase of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) simulation of contemporary climate as well as IPCC, AR5 Representative Concentrations Pathways (RCP), 4.5 and 8.5 scenarios projections of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) Climate. In the first part (Otieno and Anyah in Clim Dyn, 2012) we focused on the historical simulations, whereas this second part primarily focuses on future projections based on the two scenarios. Six Earth System Models (ESMs) from CMIP5 archive have been used to characterize projected changes in seasonal and annual mean precipitation, temperature and the hydrological cycle by the middle of twenty-first century over the GHA region, based on IPCC, 5th Assessment Report (AR5) RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Nearly all the models outputs analyzed reproduce the correct mean annual cycle of precipitation, with some biases among the models in capturing the correct peak of precipitation cycle, more so, March–April–May (MAM) seasonal rainfall over the equatorial GHA region. However, there is significant variation among models in projected precipitation anomalies, with some models projecting an average increase as others project a decrease in precipitation during different seasons. The ensemble mean of the ESMs indicates that the GHA region has been experiencing a steady increase in both precipitation and temperature beginning in the early 1980s and 1970s respectively in both RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. Going by the ensemble means, temperatures are projected to steadily increase uniformly in all the seasons at a rate of 0.3/0.5 °C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios over northern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/3 °C by the middle of the century. On the other hand, temperatures will likely increase at a rate of 0.3/0.4 °C/decade under RCP4.5/8.5 scenarios in both equatorial and southern GHA region leading to an approximate temperature increase of 2/2.5 °C by the middle of twenty-first century. Nonetheless, projected precipitation increase varied across seasons and sub-regions. With the exception of the equatorial region, that is projected to experience precipitation increase during DJF season, most sub-regions are projected to experience precipitation increase within their peak seasons, with the highest rate of increase experienced during DJF and OND seasons over southern and equatorial GHA regions respectively. Notably, as precipitation increases, the deficit (E < P) between evaporation (E) and precipitation (P) increased over the years, with a negatively skewed distribution. This generally implies that there is a high likelihood of an increased deficit in local moisture supply. This remarkable change in the general hydrological cycle (i.e. deficit in local moisture) is projected to be also coincident with intensified westerly anomaly influx from the Congo basin into the region. However, better understanding of the detailed changes in hydrological cycle will require comprehensive water budget analyses that require daily or sub-daily variables, and was not a specific focus of the present study.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Anyah RO, Qiu W (2011) Characteristic 20th and 21st century precipitation and temperature patterns and changes over the Greater Horn of Africa. Int J Climatol 31. doi:10.1002/joc.2270
Anyah RO, Semazzi FHM (2006) Climate variability over the Greater Horn of Africa based on NCAR AGCM ensemble. Theoret Appl Climatol 86(1–4):39–62
Anyah RO, Semazzi FHM (2007) Variability of East African rainfall based on multi-year RegCM3 model simulations. Int J Climatol 27:357–371
Anyamba A, Linthicum KJ, Small JL, Collins KM, Tucker CJ, Pak EW, Britch SC, Eastman JR, Pinzon JE, Russel KL (2012) Climate teleconnections and recent patterns of human and animal disease outbreaks. PLoS Negl Trop Dis 6(1):e1465
Chen TC, Yen MC, Murakami M (1988) The water vapor transport associated with the 30–50 day oscillation over the Asian monsoon regions during 1979 summer. Mon Weather Rev 116:1983–2002
Chylek P, Li J, Dubey MK, Wang M, Lesins G (2011) Observed and model simulated 20th century Arctic temperature variability: Canadian Earth System Model CanESM2. Atmos Chem Phys 11:22893–22907
Clarke L, Edmonds J, Jacoby H, Pitcher H, Reilly J, Richels R (2007) Scenarios of the greenhouse gas emission and atmospheric concentrations. Sub-report 2.1A of synthesis and assessment product 2.1 by the U.S. climate change science program and the subcommittee on global change research. Department of Energy Office of Biological & Environmental Research, Washington
D’Abreton PC, Tyson PD (1995) Divergent and non-divergent water vapour transport over southern Africa during wet and dry conditions. Meteorol Atmos Phys 55:47–59
Diro GT, Grimes DIF, Black E (2011) Teleconnections between Ethiopian summer rainfall and sea surface temperature: part I observation and modeling. Clim Dyn 37:103–119
Dufresne JL, Foujols MA, Denvil S, Caubel A, Marti O (2012) Climate change projections using the IPSL-CM5 earth system model: from CMIP3 to CMIP5. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1636-1
Emanuel KA, Rothman MZ (1999) Development and evaluation of a convection scheme for use in climate models. J Atmos Sci 56:1756–1782
Gent PR et al (2011) The community climate system model, version 4. J Clim 24(19):4973–4991
Githeko AK, Lindsay SW, Confalonieri UE, Patz JA (2000) Climate change and vector-borne diseases: a regional analysis. Bull World Health Organ 9:1136–1147
Guha-Sapir D, Vos F, Below R, Ponserre S (2011) Annual disaster statistical review 2010: the numbers and trends. Centre for Research on the Epidemiology of Disasters (CRED)
Hastenrath S, Polzin D, Mutai C (2007) Diagnosing the 2005 drought in equatorial East Africa. J Clim 20(18):4628–4637
Hellmuth ME, Moorhead A, Thomson MC, Williams J (2007) Climate risk management in Africa: learning from practice. International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI), New York
IPCC (2008) Towards new scenarios for analysis of emissions, climate change, impacts, and response strategies. IPCC Expert Meeting Report on New Scenarios, Noordwijkerhout, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change
Jung M, Reichstein M, Ciais P, Seneviratne SI, Sheffield J, Goulden ML, Bonan G, Cescatti A, Chen JQ, de Jeu R, Dolman AJ, Eugster W, Gerten D, Gianelle D, Gobron N, Heinke J, Kimball J, Law BE, Montagnani L, Mu QZ, Mueller B, Oleson K, Papale D, Richardson AD, Roupsard O, Running S, Tomelleri E, Viovy N, Weber U, Williams C, Wood E, Zaehle S, Zhang K (2010) Recent decline in the global land evapotranspiration trend due to limited moisture supply. Nature 467:951–954
Karl TR, Trenberth KE (2003) Modern global climate change. Science 302:1719–1723
Karl TR, Knight RW, Plummer N (1995) Trends in high-frequency climate variability in the twentieth century. Nature 377(6546):217–220
Kijazi AL, Reason CJC (2009a) Analysis of the 2006 floods over northern Tanzania. Int J Climatol 29:955–970
Kijazi AL, Reason CJC (2009b) Analysis of the 1998 to 2005 drought over the northeastern highlands of Tanzania. Clim Res 38:209–223
Lamarque JF, Bond TC, Eyring V, Granier C, Heil A, Klimont Z, Lee DS, Liousse C, Mieville A, Owen B, Schultz M, Shindell D, Smith SJ, Stehfest E, van Aardenne J, Cooper O, Kainuma M, Mahowald N, McConnell JR, Riahi K, Van Vuuren DP (2010) Historical (1850–2000) gridded anthropogenic and biomass burning emissions of reactive gases and aerosols: methodology and application. Atmos Chem Phys 10:7017–7039. doi:10.5194/acp-10-7017-2010
Latif M, Dommenget D, Dima M, Gröotzner A (1999) The role of Indian Ocean sea surface temperature in forcing East African rainfall anomalies during December–January 1997/98. J Clim 12:3497–3504
Mango LM, Melesse AM, McClain ME, Gann D, Setegn SG (2011) Land use and climate change impacts on the hydrology of the upper Mara River Basin, Kenya: results of a modelling study to support better resource management. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 15:2245–2258
Meinshausen M, Smith SJ, Calvin K, Daniel JS, Kainuma MLT, Lamarque J-F, Matsumoto K, Montzka SA, Raper S, Riahi K et al (2011) The RCP greenhouse gas concentrations and their extensions from 1765 to 2300. Clim Change. doi:10.1007/s10584-011-0156-z
Neale RB, Richter JH, Jochum M (2008) The impact of convection on ENSO: from a delayed oscillator to a series of events. J Clim 21:5904–5924
Nicholson SE (1996) A review of climate dynamics and climate variability in eastern Africa. In: Johnson TC, Odada E (eds) The limnology, climatology and paleoclimatology of the East African Lakes. Gordon and Breach, Amsterdam, pp 25–56
Nkomo JC, Nyong AO, Kulindwa K (2006) The impacts of climate change in Africa. Final draft submitted to the Stern Review on the Economics of Climate Change, pp 51
Nordeng TE (1994) Extended versions of the convective parameterization scheme at ECMWF and their impact on the mean and transient activity of the model in the tropics. Technical Report 206, ECMWF, Reading
Ogutu JO, Owen-Smith N (2003) ENSO, rainfall and temperature influences on extreme population declines among African savanna ungulates. Ecolog Lett 6:412–419
Ogutu JO, Owen-Smith N (2007) Oscillations in large mammal populations: are they related to predation or rainfall? Afr J Ecol 43:332–339
Otieno VO, Anyah RO (2012) CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part 1: contemporary climate. Clim Dyn. doi:10.1007/s00382-012-1549-z
Ottichilo WK, De Leeuw J, Skidmore AK, Prins HHT, Said MY (2000) Population trends of large non-migratory wild herbivores and livestock in the Masai Mara ecosystem, Kenya, between 1977 and 1997. Afr J Ecol 38:202–216
Patz JA, Epstein PR, Burke TA, Balbus JM (1996) Global climate change and emerging infectious diseases. J Am Med Assoc 275:217–223
Patz JA, Githeko AK, McCarty JP, Hussein S, Confalonieri U, de Wet N (2003) Climate change and infectious diseases. In: McMichael A, Campbell-Lendrum D, Corvalan C, Ebi K, Githeko A, Scheraga J, Woodward A (eds) Climate change and human health: risks and responses. World Health Organization, Geneva, pp 103–132
Riahi K, Gruebler A, Nakicenovic N (2007) Scenarios of long-term socio-economic and environmental development under climate stabilization. Technol Forecast Soc Chang 74(7):887–935
Riahi K, Krey V, Rao S, Chirkov V, Fischer G, Kolp P, Kindermann G, Nakicenovic N, Rafai P (2011) RCP-8.5: exploring the consequence of high emission trajectories. Clim Change 109:33–57
Rotstayn LD (1998) A physically based scheme for the treatment of stratiform clouds and precipitation in large-scale models. II: comparison of modelled and observed climatological fields. QJR Meteorol Soc 124:389–415
Rotstayn LD, Collier MA, Dix MR, Feng Y, Gordon HB, O’Farrell SP, Smith IN, Syktus J (2009) Improved simulation of Australian climate and ENSO-related climate variability in a GCM with an interactive aerosol treatment. Int J Climatol 30:1067–1088
Rotstayn LD, Jeffrey SJ, Collier MA, Dravitzki SM, Hirst AC, Syktus JI, Wong KK (2012) Aerosol-induced changes in summer rainfall and circulation in the Australasian region: a study using single-forcing climate simulations. Atmos Chem Phys 12:5107–5188
Segele ZT, Lamb PJ, Leslie LM (2009) Large-scale atmospheric circulation and global sea surface temperature associations with Horn of Africa June-September rainfall. Int J Climatol 29(8):1075–1100
Shongwe ME, van Oldenborgh GJ, van den Hurk B, van Aalst M (2011) Projected changes in mean and extreme precipitation in Africa under global warming. Part II: East Africa. J Clim 24:3718–3733
Smith SJ, Wigley TML (2006) Multi-gas forcing stabilization with the MiniCAM. Energy J (special issue #3):373–391
Smith SJ, Van Aardenne J, Klimont Z, Andres RJ, Volke A, Delgado Arias S (2011) Anthropogenic sulfur dioxide emissions: 1850–2005. Atmos Chem Phys 11:1101–1116
Taylor KE, Stouffer RJ, Meehl GA (2012) An overview of the CMIP5 and the experiment design. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 93(4):485–498
Thomson AM, Calvin KV, Smith SJ, Kyle GP, Volke A, Patel P, Delgado-Arias S, Bond-Lamberty B, Wise MA, Clarke LE et al (2011) RCP4.5: a pathway for stabilization of radiative forcing by 2100. Clim Change 109:77–94
Tiedtke M (1989) A comprehensive mass flux scheme for cumulus parameterization in large-scale models. Mon Weather Rev 117(8):1779–1800
Trenberth KE (1999) Atmospheric moisture recycling: role of advection and local evaporation. J Clim 12:1368–1381
Trenberth KE, Fasullo J, Smith L (2005) Trends and variability in column-integrated atmospheric water vapour. Clim Dyn 24:741–758
Viste E, Sorteberg A (2011) Moisture transport into the Ethiopian highlands. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3409
Viste E, Sorteberg A (2012) The effect of moisture transport variability on Ethiopian summer precipitation. Int J Climatol. doi:10.1002/joc.3566
von Salzen K, McFarlane N (2002) Parameterization of the bulk effects of lateral and cloud-top entrainment in transient shallow cumulus clouds. J Atmos Sci 59:1405–1429
Williams A, Funk CA (2011) Westward extension of the warm pool leads to a westward extension of the Walker circulation, drying eastern Africa. Clim Dyn 37:2417–2435
Wise MA, Calvin KV, Thomson AM, Clarke LE, Bond-Lamberty B, Sands RD, Smith SJ, Janetos AC, Edmonds JA (2009) Implications of limiting CO2 concentrations for land use and energy. Science 324:1183–1186
Yukimoto S et al (2012) A new global climate model of the Meteorological Research Institute: MRI-CGCM3—model description and basic performance. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 90a:23–64
Zeleke T, Giorgi F, Mengistu Tsidu G, Diro GT (2012) Spatial and temporal variability of summer rainfall over Ethiopia from observations and a regional climate model experiment. Theor Appl Climatol. doi:10.1007/s00704-012-0700-4
Acknowledgments
This research was supported by National Science Foundation (NSF) under Grant #: AGS 0854615. We also acknowledge the climate modeling groups, the World Climate Research Programme’s (WCRP) Working Group on Coupled Modeling (WGCM), and the Global Organization for Earth System Science Portals (GO-ESSP) for their roles in producing, coordinating, and making available the CMIP5 model output. We would also like to thank the anonymous reviewers whose contributions have helped to significantly improve the quality of this manuscript.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Otieno, V.O., Anyah, R.O. CMIP5 simulated climate conditions of the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA). Part II: projected climate. Clim Dyn 41, 2099–2113 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1694-z
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-013-1694-z