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Decadal changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoons

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Abstract

In this study, we investigate a long-term modulation in the relationship between Indian summer monsoon rainfall with the subsequent Australian summer monsoon rainfall. The two monsoon rainfall time series are significantly correlated at 0.3 at the 99 % confidence level. However, the relationship weakens during the 1932–1966 period, with the inter-monsoon correlation for the period falling below statistical significance. We find that this modulation is consistent with a breakdown of the typical El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influence on sea surface temperature in the northern region of Australia, during this period. In addition, a change in the relative influences of ENSO and Indian Ocean Basin-wide Warming sea surface temperature anomalies on the Australian summer monsoon rainfall is also apparent across different time periods.

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Notes

  1. The NINO3 index, and EMI (Ashok et al. 2007) are defined as the area-averaged SSTA over the box 90°W–150°W, 5°S–5°N, and 165°E–140°W, 10°S–10°N, respectively. The IODMI is defined as the gradient of SSTA between the two boxes 50°E–70°E, 10°S–10°N, and 90°E–110°E, 0°–10°S (Saji et al. 1999). The JJAS and DJF seasonal anomalies have obtained by averaging all the monthly anomalies of the respective season. The IOBW has been obtained, following Yang et al., by area-averaging the SSTA for the DJF season over [40°E–110° E, 20°S–20°N].

  2. Those summers when the NINO3 index exceeds 1 standard deviation.

  3. The statistical significance for the sub-periods I, II, and III at the 80 % confidence level from a 2-tailed t test are, respectively, 0.24, 0.21, and 0.25.

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Acknowledgments

The authors acknowledge discussions with Harry Hendon. Constructive comments from two anonymous reviewers of an earlier version have helped in improving the manuscript. Karumuri Ashok acknowledges the support of Prof. B. N. Goswami, Director of the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology (IITM). The Center for Climate Change Research of the IITM is funded by the Ministry of Earth Sciences, Govt. of India. Nagaraju acknowledges the support of Akshara Kaginalkar, Associate director, Center for Development of Advanced Computing (C-DAC) Pune. Alex Sengupta acknowledges funding by the Australian Research Council grant DP110100601.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Centre for Climate Change Research, Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, Pune, 411008, India

    Karumuri Ashok & C. Nagaraju

  2. Computational Earth Sciences, Centre for Development of Advanced Computing, Pune, 411007, India

    C. Nagaraju

  3. Climate Change Research Centre & ARC Centre of Excellence for Climate System Science, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia

    A. Sen Gupta

  4. India Meteorological Department, Pune, 411007, India

    D. S. Pai

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  1. Karumuri Ashok
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  2. C. Nagaraju
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Correspondence to Karumuri Ashok.

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382_2012_1625_MOESM1_ESM.tif

Supplementary material Figure S1: Homogeneous monsoon regions of India and Australia. ISMR calculated as area-averaged rainfall over the Indian land mass from June to September and ASMR calculated as area-averaged rainfall over the region 120°E–154°E, 22°S–10°S from December to following February of each year. (TIFF 4100 kb)

382_2012_1625_MOESM2_ESM.tif

Supplementary material Figure S2: Rainfall anomaly composite during El Niño events from 1900 to 2009 over India (left) and Australia (right). (TIFF 4596 kb)

382_2012_1625_MOESM3_ESM.tif

Supplementary material Figure S3: IOBM–ASMR correlations removing El Niño Modoki (upper panel) and NINO3–ASMR correlation removing El Niño Modoki (lower panel) for 1903–1931 (1st column), 1932–1966 (2nd column), 1967–1992 (3rd column) and 1993–2009 (4th column). (TIFF 9339 kb)

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Ashok, K., Nagaraju, C., Gupta, A.S. et al. Decadal changes in the relationship between the Indian and Australian summer monsoons. Clim Dyn 42, 1043–1052 (2014). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-012-1625-4

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